Chinese Economics Thread

[tphuang]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1854659770294391283

From Dave Fishman. And I've seen this too. Electricity cost for Chinese residents is as low as 0.3 RMB per kWh. I think renewables is even cheaper.

 

[HeiTangSeng]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1854659770294391283

From Dave Fishman. And I've seen this too. Electricity cost for Chinese residents is as low as 0.3 RMB per kWh. I think renewables is even cheaper.

Dave Fishman is based in Shanghai? I can confirm that in Shanghai's newer residential complexes where there's extra dedicated capacity for home chargers, the EV charging rate from 10pm to 6am is 0.3 RMB/kWh. But at my older early 2000s building, where the charging line is from home meter, it's the normal residential off-peak rate of 0.49 RMB/kWh.

I feel like it's almost free to charge EV at home in Shanghai. And Shanghai is the most expensive city too.

 

[AndrewS]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1854659770294391283

From Dave Fishman. And I've seen this too. Electricity cost for Chinese residents is as low as 0.3 RMB per kWh. I think renewables is even cheaper.

Prior to the Ukraine war, it was straightforward to switch to an overnight tariff of 6 US cents / kWh in the UK
It's like 9-10 US cents / kWh now, but this is still very inexpensive to charge an EV overnight.

Daytime rates are another matter however.

 

[tygyg1111]

With Trump tariffs on their way, things are going to be tough for Chinese exports. The RMB lost a lot of value against the USD after the election results were announced.

However I'm much more worried about this

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One day before election 1 CNY = 0.141 USD
Today 1 CNY = 0.140 USD

Difference of 0.001 USD

In rupee terms though...

 

[tphuang]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1855594630663872546

Shenzhen is the manufacturing and tech heavyweight of the globe. Just incredible amount of brands, sellers and export from there.

 

[abenomics12345]

October exports up 12.7%, more than doubling expectations. Imports fell 2.3%, slightly more than expected. Surplus grew to $95 billion.

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Demand is likely to remain elevated for the rest of the year, ahead of Trump returning to office.

Until tariffs get announced, exports will run hotter as everyone will want to frontload orders and stock up in overseas warehouses.

hardly any difference in exchange rates. please check before comment

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Stock market in-fact rising after election results announced.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1854421526382325796

and we all know that, what was the result of first trade war.. we are actually waiting for Tariffs 2.0

The market was rising because of unfounded rumours of an additional 4 trillion of stimulus related to housing - they are down a little less than they rose today because of the 10 trillion debt resolution plan.

The central government has ample capacity to take on additional debt - funding the pension plan is a good example of such policy. Or increasing investments in healthcare. Better yet, buy discounted apartments off of developers for subsidized housing (turn it around and IPO it into the markets or put it into the pension plan for good income generation). Separate the good LGFV assets from the bad, and take out the bad ones from local governments so the local governments can ensure the remaining LGFVs are viable entities.

What I said in Feb.

 

[abenomics12345]

Total A-share purchase by "National Team" (predominantly Central Huijin Investment, China Securities Finance Corp, and SAFE investment vehicle), had hit RMB3.2trn (US$440bn) by 2Q2024, according to Securities Times.

I certainly was not referring to you as the 'idiots' in my original post - as you clearly did not argue against the notion that stimulus was necessary. In this sense I certainly believe the term 'idiot' was appropriate given the deeply unserious and clearly mistaken understanding of the underlying situation and the subsequent policy announcements this week (PBoC Monetary Policy and the subsequent Politburo readout). In Chinese, this is what we refer to as 啪啪打脸.

China’s state investment institutions, including Central Huijin Investment Ltd., the National Social Security Fund and the China Securities Finance Corp Ltd., increased their holdings in A-share listed companies by nearly

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in the third quarter of 2024. This gives their holding a total market value of 3.97 trillion yuan ($557 billion) across 788 companies, accounting for 4.69% of the total market value.