Chinese Economics Thread

tphuang

tphuang

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I think the policy proposed by Trump is fine. If done surgically, it could certainly bring benefits to America without significant inflation. But again, let's wait and see what actually happens first.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1856462070591488028
a really good boost in sales during singles day for Xiaomi. I think their brand has really done well this year.
 
I

Index

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Maikeru said:
Trump tariffs to lead to 50% RMB devaluation?

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RMB wouldn't actually devalue together with dollar. If say dollar goes down 50-100% due to US retreating from bilateral trade, it will force capital to choose a more stable asset, which will push up RMB instead. Smaller currencies would go down together with dollar though.
 
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lube

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zbb

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Maikeru said:
Trump tariffs to lead to 50% RMB devaluation?

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That article is pure wishful thinking and doesn't even get basic facts correct.

For example,
In 2018, after the US put a tariff on half of everything it imported from China at a 25 per cent rate, the renminbi fell 10 per cent versus the dollar, in what was almost a one-for-one offset.
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  • With what math is 25% vs 10% almost a one-for-one offset?
  • RMB actually depreciated by 5.7% against the USD in 2018 (from 2018/1/1 to 2019/1/1), not 10%.
  • Over the same period, the Euro, Canadian Dollar, and Australia Dollar fell by 6.1%, 8.6%, and 12.7% respectively against the USD. So RMB fell less against the USD during this period than many other major currencies. The fact that the USD appreciated during this period had nothing to do with the trade war and was instead the result of the US Federal Reserve steadily hiking interest rates during this time.
 
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lube

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zbb said:
That article is pure wishful thinking and doesn't even get basic facts correct.

For example,

  • With what math is 25% vs 10% almost a one-for-one offset?
  • RMB actually depreciated by 5.7% against the USD in 2018 (from 2018/1/1 to 2019/1/1), not 10%.
  • Over the same period, the Euro, Canadian Dollar, and Australia Dollar fell by 6.1%, 8.6%, and 12.7% respectively against the USD. So RMB fell less against the USD during this period than many other major currencies. The fact that the USD appreciated during this period had nothing to do with the trade war and was instead the result of the US Federal Reserve steadily hiking interest rates during this time.
Click to expand...

Robin Brooks is a massive think tank shill on Twitter.
Every day is a new post complaining about Russian sanction evasions with a new chart.

Let's just say, he's not writing objectively but here to promote an agenda, as he's paid to do.
Which is to provide talking points for governments retaliating against any Chinese RMB depreciation and treating it as an hostile act.
 
H

henrik

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Index said:
RMB wouldn't actually devalue together with dollar. If say dollar goes down 50-100% due to US retreating from bilateral trade, it will force capital to choose a more stable asset, which will push up RMB instead. Smaller currencies would go down together with dollar though.
Click to expand...

China pump up the rmb, which together with tariffs on Chinese product, would create super inflation in the US economy.
 
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