Chinese Economics Thread

[tphuang]

Can we please raise the quality of posts on this thread?

I'm honestly embarrassed by some of these low quality posts I'm seeing

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1838604158628155426

one thing surprising to me since the rate cuts is that USD/CNY and USD/CNH continue to drop. USD/CNH is now at 7.02. So their actions haven't been perceived by the market as bearish on RMB.

on just how things will affect economy as a whole.

I would say that past few decades has shown that economy very rarely plays out the way economists think they will.

I'm not convinced that rate cuts or stimulus are good things.

It's healthy to take contrarian views sometimes.

 

[supercat]

At this rate, China will export more than 6 million vehicles this year.

China exported 4.09 million vehicles from January – August 2024, up 39% YoY

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[henrik]

I think it is smart of them to load up on Chinese stocks which are depressed as heck.

The Chinese are now doing the right thing by pumping up the stock market and property markets. We have been making this recommendation for a long time. The Chinese consumers need to rebuild their spending confidence, which is way more important than just government spending on high speed railway and other infrastructure.

 

[siegecrossbow]

RIP Chinese exports!

 

[tphuang]

The Chinese are now doing the right thing by pumping up the stock market and property markets. We have been making this recommendation for a long time. The Chinese consumers need to rebuild their spending confidence, which is way more important than just government spending on high speed railway and other infrastructure.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1838409760565268834

seems to me everything is still pretty mild. I don't see this great stimulus. Chinese economy does not depend on stock market growth at all. If Chinese government really wants people to put more money in the stock market, they need to force financial institution to put a % of their investment or balance sheet in stock market.

 

[gelgoog]

seems to me everything is still pretty mild. I don't see this great stimulus. Chinese economy does not depend on stock market growth at all. If Chinese government really wants people to put more money in the stock market, they need to force financial institution to put a % of their investment or balance sheet in stock market.

For what? For them to become vulnerable to international capital mucking up with the stock market and destroying their assets like what is happening in India? Nah, the Chinese government is doing just ok buying the stock while it is cheap as a one off event.

 

[HighGround]

I like how a gradual rise in the stock market is viewed as a "bubble". Necessitating this idea that a stock index that produces inconsistent returns is actually "good". It's not, and there would be nothing wrong if China's stock index value rose with the economy. It would actually be quite normal and reflect China's economic rise.

Not that China's stock market is an indication of something "catastrophic". It's imply an oddity that I frankly can't understand or explain very well, but it's not something that's inherently "good" or something that's desirable.

 

[Quan8410]

I like how a gradual rise in the stock market is viewed as a "bubble". Necessitating this idea that a stock index that produces inconsistent returns is actually "good". It's not, and there would be nothing wrong if China's stock index value rose with the economy. It would actually be quite normal and reflect China's economic rise.

Not that China's stock market is an indication of something "catastrophic". It's imply an oddity that I frankly can't understand or explain very well, but it's not something that's inherently "good" or something that's desirable.

In this forum if you don't do manufacturing you are just negative surplus, especially finance and investment is viewed as leeching the society. Maybe the Chinese officials have that view too. Rising stock market is nothing because we can pour money to real estate because real estate bring massive revenue to local governments. Then we have housing bubble.

 

[tphuang]

For what? For them to become vulnerable to international capital mucking up with the stock market and destroying their assets like what is happening in India? Nah, the Chinese government is doing just ok buying the stock while it is cheap as a one off event.

oh, I didn't say it was a good idea. I'm just refuting the idea that Chinese gov't is really supporting their stock market all that much. It is not abnormal for there to be laws for local investment bodies to invest in local companies though. That would actually be good source of funding.

 

[abenomics12345]

The Chinese are now doing the right thing by pumping up the stock market and property markets. We have been making this recommendation for a long time. The Chinese consumers need to rebuild their spending confidence, which is way more important than just government spending on high speed railway and other infrastructure.

People here seem to believe that the stock market going up = evil western financialization.

I'm just refuting the idea that Chinese gov't is really supporting their stock market all that much

PBoC Governor: 我跟（证监会）吴清主席说了，只要这个事情做得好，未来可以再来5000亿，或者第三个5000亿元，我们（的态度）是开放的。