they can say they are open to many things. But it hasn't actually happened.
Chinese Economics Thread
- Thread starter Norfolk
- Start date
I've been talking about this issue for weeks now. Apple saw a huge drop in its sales in China in Q3. All the data shows this. Now, apparently Western media has picked it up.
At least they coupled this with overall shipment are up 26%, so that they can't just blame it on Chinese economy
I mean it's a basic logical truth that growth is worth exponentially less the more stratified the benefit recievers are.
A few people here will act is if saying this is equal to being Pol Pot and arguing for abolishment of economics, when it is simply a law of nature.
If 100 people achieve each a net value increase of 1 million vs if 1 person achieves a net value increase of 100 million, the former creates a lot more economical activity, innovation and ultimately far more prosperity.
Yup, that's the ideal. Unfortunately, the Chinese are more selfish and individualist than people think. We should accept that in a certain limit, some people will receive more benefits than other.
So, China decides to fight back by making its market not accessible to Western companies that comply with the Xinjiang cotton trade.
I assume this is due to "China week" stuff and the recent banning of Chinese auto software/hardware. Let's see if they come up with anything else.
What this is is a big fat ugly PR/propaganda campaign from the PBOC and the Chinese government. You have to put the raw numbers in the stimulus package into context of a 18 trillion dollar economy, a 10 trillion dollars stock market, a gross savings rate of 44% and a trade surplus of between 800 billion to a trillion dollars a year. The numbers in the stimulus package is too small to really make a difference. This is not about fundamentally changing the direction of the economy or policy but its designed to ease some of the anger of stock and real estate investors.
What are we talking about here.
The 0,5% cut in RRR only releases less than 150 billion dollars in to the economy. And maybe there will be another 150 billion dollars released before years end. And that for a 18 trillion dollar economy.
The reduction of interest payment on existing mortgages come to about 21 billion dollars a year worth of savings for mortgage holders.
A 10 to 30 basis point cut to some of the MLF rate is going to do jack for loan demand.
They are going to spend about 70 billion dollars buying stocks in a 10 trillion dollars stock market. How big of difference do you think that will really make.
China hasn't announce any big bazooka stimulus like back in 2008 or have they eased the three red lines for the real estate industry.
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It just means China's wealth wasn't channeled into the stock market, but into other investments (e.g. real estate). But you can't then argue this indicates the stock market "generally" means nothing, because there are other countries where the wealth is channeled into the stock market. The fact that Chinese people don't trust the Chinese stock market is not an inherent benefit, because putting all that wealth into real estate is just as bad if not worse.
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Which is why stocks (statistically owned only be a few) is always sacrificed by China to feed worker owned/non-stock trading companies (statistically benefitting many).
@HighGround this your explanation why China always has a low stock market compared to countries stuck in non-growing income traps.
Having a high 1% income is worth much much less than a high bottom 50% income, even if the income expansions are the same in absolute numbers. Outlining all economical decisions after correct foundations towards long term growth is why China, not Brazil, nor US or India, is the largest and best performing world economy.
that's a strange thing to say. If you are theory is that China is not hitting back more, because its economy is weak, then why is it hitting back now on this issue. When it didn't do it in 2021 when its economy was hitting all cylinders?