Chinese Economics Thread

[Index]

My premise is: benefit of hiding strength > benefit of intimidating reputation: therefore hiding #1 economy status works well.

I don't think they are hiding it, you can see it anywhere even on western internet just by searching.

China could actually further hide it by cooking the gdp adjustment coefficient even more, but they're not doing that, it's past the point where it's worth masking anymore, they can't hide the no1 status anymore than you can hide the average trump voter behind a lamp post. Just like with the lamp post, by trying to do so would only invite additional scrutiny and even ridicule.

So they embraced it for investors, economic partnerships etc but they don't rub it in the face of the west constantly because honestly what point does it serve? As someone else wrote above, when the Qing and British fought, Qing had no1 gdp.

The battlefield is a contest of industry and true prosperity. Gdp only tangentially measures that. US was so threatened by much smaller USSR because USSR invested efficiently in many fields while US didn't. USSR was not cowed if US had shouted they have no1 gdp all day, and neither will US be cowed by China shouting it.

 

[supercat]

China's power consumption grew 7.9% year-over-year from January to August this year.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1836960884218024257

 

[azn_cyniq]

GDP per capita is a metric, not a goal. It is usually correlated with physical production but recently we've seen a decoupling of GDP from physical metrics of the economy.

So let's see where India's physical economy is.

Science:

In 2016, India had 1/8 China's score.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

In 2024, India had 1/15 China's score.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Life expectancy:

Gap increased from a consistent ~9 years since the 1960's to 11 years in 2022.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Food security:

India is one of the world's largest food exporters even as 190 million Indians starve.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Average Indian eats less calories than Nigerians.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Meanwhile average Chinese eats more protein than even Americans despite eating only half the meat. Both nutrition and health are taken care of.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Education:

Only 1/2 of all Indian students can read at grade 2 level - in grade 5.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

India PISA rank was rock bottom.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Is India really catching up?

China's August 2024 exports increased by 8.7% year-on-year to $308.65 billion.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Taiwan's August 2024 exports increased by 16.8% year-on-year to $43.6 billion.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

India's August 2024 exports decreased by 9.3% year-on-year to $34.71 billion.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

India still hasn't caught up to Taiwan in exports lol

 

[Index]

China's August 2024 exports increased by 8.7% year-on-year to $308.65 billion.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Taiwan's August 2024 exports increased by 16.8% year-on-year to $43.6 billion.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

India's August 2024 exports decreased by 9.3% year-on-year to $34.71 billion.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

India still hasn't caught up to Taiwan in exports lol

India's economic fradulance needs to be more clearly studied. They claim to have larger economy than Russia, but what economic activity you see from India is, as you say, struggling to keep up with Taiwan, let alone the powerhouses like Guangdong or Zhejiang.

So wtf is going on? Too much population generating gdp just by doing basic subsistence tasks? Fake numbers from the government?

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

India's economic fradulance needs to be more clearly studied. They claim to have larger economy than Russia, but what economic activity you see from India is, as you say, struggling to keep up with Taiwan, let alone the powerhouses like Guangdong or Zhejiang.

So wtf is going on? Too much population generating gdp just by doing basic subsistence tasks? Fake numbers from the government?

yep there is a GDP floor that is generated by sustenance farming. India is quite close to it.

 

[SanWenYu]

China not taking those risks (there is none BTW) is what have led to Western countries ignoring its sensibilities. There are literally no consequences for ignoring China or tariffing it.

Taking risk is different than taking risk without calculating the return.

China did fight back the Trump tariffs with tariffs. China has also started the due processes on tariffing some imports from Canada and Europe for retaliation.

If there was no consequences, the west would have cut China out of their supply chains already.

If you have missed, they are literally walling off the developed world against Chinese high-tech goods.

The developed world as a market has been a walled off garden to the developing world for long. That garden used to be protected by technology superiority and non-trade barriers. Hiking up tariffs is just one of their last defence.

It may cost China a trillion USD in export revenues in future. China on the other hand is hesitant to export control raw materials.

This does not make sense. The American companies are losing market shares to Chinese domestic suppliers in semiconductor because the US stops export of semiconductor products to China. How would China be able to gain market shares by limiting export of raw materials to the west?

If it was a trillion USD at the stake, do you seriously believe that gallium or any of the raw materials would be sufficient to beat the west to submission?

 

[tphuang]

one place that China probably does have overcapacity is in refineries

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Another one just opened up taking in 400k bpd. I have no idea where they are going to find demand for some of these refineries. They better move up the value chain soon, so they can replace any import need from places like Japan and Korea.

 

[BoraTas]

Taking risk is different than taking risk without calculating the return.

China did fight back the Trump tariffs with tariffs. China has also started the due processes on tariffing some imports from Canada and Europe for retaliation.

If there was no consequences, the west would have cut China out of their supply chains already.


The developed world as a market has been a walled off garden to the developing world for long. That garden used to be protected by technology superiority and non-trade barriers. Hiking up tariffs is just one of their last defence.



This does not make sense. The American companies are losing market shares to Chinese domestic suppliers in semiconductor because the US stops export of semiconductor products to China. How would China be able to gain market shares by limiting export of raw materials to the west?

If it was a trillion USD at the stake, do you seriously believe that gallium or any of the raw materials would be sufficient to beat the west to submission?

Meaningless sentences. They literally say nothing that adds to the discussion. You are just trying to argue to for the sake of arguing. You were arguing against retaliations a few messages ago. Now you are saying China retaliated to Trump's tariffs and it was a good thing (which I agree btw).

Retaliatory tariffs aren't for market share. You missed that one too. They are to impose consequences to the other side which tariffed your goods. For example Canada should see a steep decline in its exports to China for slapping huge tariffs to multiple categories of Chinese imports. It is lose-lose but it deters future lose-lose.

 

[SanWenYu]

Meaningless sentences. They literally say nothing that adds to the discussion. You are just trying to argue to for the sake of arguing. You were arguing against retaliations a few messages ago. Now you are saying China retaliated to Trump's tariffs and it was a good thing (which I agree btw).

Retaliatory tariffs aren't for market share. You missed that one too. They are to impose consequences to the other side which tariffed your goods. For example Canada should see a steep decline in its exports to China for slapping huge tariffs to multiple categories of Chinese imports. It is lose-lose but it deters future lose-lose.

Where did I argue against retaliation? The discussion started with whether China need to ban export of gallium etc. All I said is to not retaliate if there is no gain.

When you suggested that China does not have the guts to retaliate, I reminded you the retaliatory responses China has taken against the US, Canada and EU to show how wrong you are. By the way, tariffs are all about market share, retalitory or not. But that is off topic.

China is the one having huge trade surplus and growing. When China is about to own the floor, no reason for China to join the west to tear down the stage. On the contrary, China should try to keep the stage up for as long as there is still money to make. This is why we are seeing China tries to follow the WTO procedures in handling trade disputes.

Out of control escalations would have Chinese companies shut out of the lucrative markets over night. Prudent, carefully measured moves on the other hand have allowed China to keep making hundreds of billions every year.

 

[HighGround]

China not taking those risks (there is none BTW) is what have led to Western countries ignoring its sensibilities. There are literally no consequences for ignoring China or tariffing it.

If you have missed, they are literally walling off the developed world against Chinese high-tech goods. It may cost China a trillion USD in export revenues in future. China on the other hand is hesitant to export control raw materials.

You're looking at it the wrong way.

Western countries are hurting themselves more than they are hurting China. Currently, the pain is not great enough for Western countries to notice, but these things get worse over time. Banning out China's rapid technological progress and iteration will only keep Western firms out of that progress. Conversely, China should do its best to continue importing and co-operating with Western firms wherever possible.

Of course China is very lucky in the sense that they have their own domestic market to support these industries, but that's why China should continue to play this game.

OTOH, there is no harm in banning Western luxury products or areas where China already has a massive edge. You can ban Western EVs from being sold in China for example. It's actually quite admirable how patiently Chinese leadership is willing to play the long game. Periphery markets like Turkey, Middle East, South America, Mexico, etc... As long as China keeps presence and fights for market share there, eventually Western firms will simply lose competitiveness.

People like Draghi already see the writing on the wall. That's why his report is so pessimistic. EU focused on building a giant walled garden, and didn't even realize that they walled themselves in.