Chinese Economics Thread

proelite

Junior Member
I have never argued against spending money on basic research.

The government is not very good at commercializing technology.

Look at the best 'hard tech' companies coming out of China - Huawei, United Imaging, Inovance, BYD, CATL - which one of those are government owned/operated?

Those companies were heavily funded by the government lol. United Imaging is partly state owned.
 

abenomics12345

Junior Member
Registered Member
Those companies were mostly funded by the government lol. United Imaging is partly state owned.

Note I specifically wrote 'operated'.

Having visited the company multiple times, I can tell you as a fact that the place is not run like Bank of China.

The local SASAC can own whatever companies they want to - they get dividends/votes as shareholders just like anyone else; but let the damn professionals (scientists/business people) do what they're good at.
 

GiantPanda

Junior Member
Registered Member
Japan also consumed more electricity in the 1990s, but see disposable income growth:

View attachment 135447

Yi Gang, Former People's Bank of China Governor:
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You: Nah no worries bro deflation is good.

This was Japan:
IMG_4127.jpeg

This is China:
IMG_4123.jpeg
The trajectories are complete opposites.

I can say with pretty good confidence that China is growing far faster in its real economy than any of the other major nations. And will continue to grow faster on the delta of change from electricity usage.

And I say that fully aware of the headwinds from the RE unwinding because I saw how the 2008 subprime crisis impacted the US -- its electricity contracted (-4%) in 2009.
 

abenomics12345

Junior Member
Registered Member
This was Japan:
View attachment 135636

This is China:
View attachment 135635
The trajectories are complete opposites.

I can say with pretty good confidence that China is growing far faster in its real economy than any of the other major nations. And will continue to grow faster on the delta of change from electricity usage.

And I say that fully aware of the headwinds from the RE unwinding because I saw how the 2008 subprime crisis impacted the US -- its electricity contracted (-4%) in 2009.
1726176281311.png

Fixed it for you - as my point was specifically that Japanese growth in the 1990s were shit despite growing energy consumption, I fail to see how Japan post 2000 has anything to do with what I said.
 

proelite

Junior Member
Note I specifically wrote 'operated'.

Having visited the company multiple times, I can tell you as a fact that the place is not run like Bank of China.

The local SASAC can own whatever companies they want to - they get dividends/votes as shareholders just like anyone else; but let the damn professionals (scientists/business people) do what they're good at.

Yes, but recently we've been discussing the benefit of private (smart) vs government funding and financial markets.

View attachment 135639

Fixed it for you - as my point was specifically that Japanese growth in the 1990s were shit despite growing energy consumption, I fail to see how Japan post 2000 has anything to do with what I said.

This is because of people playing PlayStation.
 

abenomics12345

Junior Member
Registered Member
Yes, but recently we've been discussing the benefit of private (smart) vs government funding and financial markets.

As I said I've never said anything against public funding of basic research. But the economy works *at the margin*.

The debate here is how you improve outcomes with the *INCREMENTAL* investment to benefit the whole:

- Eating the first donut feels delicious but eating the 5th (maybe 10 if you're American) is nauseating.
- Going from exercising 1x per week to 3x per week is amazing for your health, but going from 5x/week to 10x/week might injure yourself.
 

doggydogdo

Junior Member
Registered Member
This literally proves my point.

The list of those companies generated 48.2bln in revenues in 1H24 vs 41.9bln in 1H23. As industry was 147.6bln in 1H24 from the Inovance Report, 2.8% reduction means that 1H23 was 151.8bln.

Therefore, the rest of the industry was 99.3bln in 1H24 vs 109.9bln in 1H23 - a 10% reduction.

This isn't even to mention that the biggest driver of Inovance's revenue growth driven by the ~90% growth in EVs business (which we all know), so the industrial automation piece was more like 10%. Meaning that the growth wasn't nearly as strong as listed on that table.

Seriously, you're embarrassing yourself. If you're really DoggyDog from Twitter and supposedly a former finance industry professional, this shitty analysis you do here is indicative of the quality of the work the Chinese capital markets did and why it is as crappy as it is today.
Yes, those domestic companies are increasing in revenue while foreign ones are losing out when the number of industrial robots are still growing (yoy 5.1%). Foreign companies which used to have monopolistic positions in the Chinese market could not deal with Chinese competition driving down the price.


also im not Doggydog from twitter lol
 

SanWenYu

Captain
Registered Member
View attachment 135594

I'd love for you guys to perform mental gymnastics on explaining how this is not bad. USD funds going away is fully expected, but RMB funds not investing = big big problem.

We can talk all day long about how China looks in 2050 (mentally jerk off to the 2500 J-20s a fleet of 10 CGs at a GDP per capita of 35k USD equivalent) all we want but the long term is made up of many short terms - and the short term looks shit.



As I said about a year ago.



Before attacking the point, it helps to recognize that multiple things can be true at the same f'ing time.
A quick search shows that Chinese VC/PE funds raised money worth more than 500 billions USD in 2023. That is more than twenty times of the 25 billion suggested by this FT piece.

In 2024H1, the total VC/PE funds raised is still more than 200 billion USD while the FT piece shows less than 10 billions.

Go figure.

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2023年中国VC/PE市场新成立基金共计8322只,同比下降4.7%,基金
数量再度走低但降幅有所减小;国内一级市场多半时间都沉浸在负面情
绪当中,募资无进展成普遍现象。
2023年VC/PE市场新成立基金的认缴规模共计6140.6亿美元,同比下降

9.4%。结合市场情况来看,国资LP加速发力,同时于今年一月深圳福田
区首次引入了中东基金,其还将在中国再度落地办公室。

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2023年上半年新成立基金数量及规模均有不同程度的下降,但二季度
募资规模表现良好。2023年上半年PE/VC市场新成立基金共3,930支,
同比减少12%;上半年新成立基金规模3,642亿美元,同比减少3%,
其中二季度规模为2,028亿美元,同比上升16%。

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新华财经上海7月14日电(记者 郭慕清)CVSource投中数据显示:2024上半年VC/PE市场,新成立基金2393支,同比减少39%,环比下降45%;募集规模为2195亿美元,同比减少38%,环比减少15%。投资数量3971起,同比小幅下滑,环比下降13%;市场交易规模共计684亿美元,同比下降4%,环比下降29%。从投资阶段来看,早期投资的投资数量占比为21%,同比增加5%。
 

HighGround

Senior Member
Registered Member
A quick search shows that Chinese VC/PE funds raised money worth more than 500 billions USD in 2023. That is more than twenty times of the 25 billion suggested by this FT piece.

In 2024H1, the total VC/PE funds raised is still more than 200 billion USD while the FT piece shows less than 10 billions.

Go figure.

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Interesting. Then I wonder how they are counting these things in the FT piece vs here.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
I have never argued against spending money on basic research. Also, like who died and made you the normative arbiter of what's waste and not waste?

The government is not very good at commercializing technology.

Look at the best 'hard tech' companies coming out of China - Huawei, United Imaging, Inovance, BYD, CATL - which one of those are government owned/operated?

Given that you raised the point about benefiting the rich - are you suggesting that the billionaire founders of these companies (Ren Zhengfei, Xue Min, Zhu Xinming, Wang Chuanfu, Zeng Yuqun) wouldn't benefit from your so called 'stimulus to the engineers'?

On your last point, if you are of the view that the government should decide what people want or not want to buy you should live in North Korea - or if you have a time machine, the USSR.



Oh this is a long story, but it depends. And this is something that has to get worked out.



I'm not sure about the media, but the visa-free travel has been the best policy decision in 2023/2024 - and much more effective than the stupid Confucius Institutes at promoting what China is like.
I never used the term waste.

People are free to spend money how they want, discussion here is use of state funds.

Huawei is owned by the employees of Huawei.

Upstream capital goods companies like CETC, NAURA, ZTE, Huahong, Tsinghua Unigroup and HikVision are some beneficiaries of targeted industrial policy to defend them against unfair competition and malicious, unilateral sanctions. They have something in common, besides producing key capital goods.
 
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