Chinese Economics Thread

HighGround

Senior Member
Registered Member
no, if you did progress in your education beyond an undergrad degree then you would know how ignorant that sounds. There is a host of other theoretical models and extensions that incorporate different stuff like innovations, pollution, human capita, etc. And they all make logical sense, whether or not they can be tested reliably is another matter. Human capital for example is empirically
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. And that Noah Smith graph doesn't even show anything, only that Poland and China GDP growth rates are largely the same for an unspecified time period since its x-axis is not even labelled. With a vague data like that you can make all sorts of arguments to explain the Polish growth, Eastern expansion of the Eurozone, investments from rich neighbours like Germany, increase in trade with the rest of Europe. But you can't compare China with Poland without serious economic modelling and econometrics, they are not the same in size, geographical layout, demographic, economic starting point...

This is TFP lmao.

I don't necessarily agree with chgough34 on everything, but I'm not a China hawk or whatever. But it is funny to see you talking about "undergrad this" and "TFP is laughable" and then just see you, ultimately, talking about TFP.
 

supercat

Major
Does TFP reflects the growth of China's high tech sectors? If not, then it's somewhat misleading. In the past 6 years, the average annual growth rate of China's high tech sectors was 10.2%, greatly outpaced the average annual GDP growth rate of 5.5%.

The Economist just realized the importance of the Global South.

Chinese companies are winning the global south​

Their expansion abroad holds important lessons for Western incumbents

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Important article about China's economy - get a cup of coffee and read the whole thing when you get a chance.

Open questions | Justin Lin Yifu on China’s third plenum, overcapacity and avoiding Japan’s fate​

  • The professor and former World Bank economist says China’s industrial policy essential to fuel innovation, avoid Japan-like depression
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Enestori

New Member
Registered Member
The official manufacturing PMI was below 50 for the third consecutive month and the Caixin PMI was well below expectations
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I have been hearing about PMI for more than a decade, since maybe 2014.

Every single time a media article comes out about China's PMI, the PMI is always negative. It's always something like 48, 49. Every single time, the article then states that this negative PMI shows China's manufacturing in decline.

Based on reporting on PMI - especially Western reporting - China's manufacturing has been in decline for over a decade.

Obviously China's manufacturing sector is bigger than it was in 2014. To be frank, I'm just not sure how reliable this PMI statistic is.
 

CMP

Senior Member
Registered Member
I have been hearing about PMI for more than a decade, since maybe 2014.

Every single time a media article comes out about China's PMI, the PMI is always negative. It's always something like 48, 49. Every single time, the article then states that this negative PMI shows China's manufacturing in decline.

Based on reporting on PMI - especially Western reporting - China's manufacturing has been in decline for over a decade.

Obviously China's manufacturing sector is bigger than it was in 2014. To be frank, I'm just not sure how reliable this PMI statistic is.
It's not. It's called lying with statistics. It's another U.S. information warfare tool.
 

TOKYO DRIFT ABC

Junior Member
Registered Member
The PMI over the past decade has not always been sluggish, and even midway through 2021 during the pandemic was not particularly low, but clearly the lockdown and the bursting of the real estate bubble have had an impact on business confidence.
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The PMI is just one of many economic statistics that you can combine to discuss the economy.
 
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CMP

Senior Member
Registered Member
Several such voices have been voiced by members of various advisory bodies, but it is not clear what impact they will have on actual government policy decisions.
If they were actually in a position to choose, they'd be choosing. Instead they are throwing their dissenting opinions out into public, which in China suggests they have no real power to decide.
 
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