Chinese Economics Thread

Sinnavuuty

Sinnavuuty

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A thread on the reforms of the 3rd Plenum of the CCP

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Another analysis on the Third Plenum

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Several Takes on the Third Plenum Decision

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Analysis on the middle class's spending and consumption being insufficient to generate economic rebalancing and maintain stable and healthy growth of China's economy, thus generating a statement and conclusion that consumption growth within the lower income class is higher than that of the middle class.

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Markets with Bureaucratic Characteristics: How Economic Bureaucrats Make Policies and Remake the Chinese State (book excerpt) Yingyao Wang opens the black box of the Chinese bureaucracy to reveal the agency of the men and women who designed and redesigned Chinese economic policy.

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China property winding-up sagas show difficulty of recovering assets Country Garden gets six-month respect as other cases highlight 'enforceability' problem month-amid-tepid-demand China's factory activity shrinks for third month amid tepid demand Stimulus measures have so far failed to revive business confidence

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China's Politburo calls for consumption boost to drive 2024 growth Top leadership acknowledges 'many' risks, calls for acceleration of fiscal policies
 
Wrought

Wrought

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Enestori said:
I have been hearing about PMI for more than a decade, since maybe 2014.

Every single time a media article comes out about China's PMI, the PMI is always negative. It's always something like 48, 49. Every single time, the article then states that this negative PMI shows China's manufacturing in decline.

Based on reporting on PMI - especially Western reporting - China's manufacturing has been in decline for over a decade.

Obviously China's manufacturing sector is bigger than it was in 2014. To be frank, I'm just not sure how reliable this PMI statistic is.
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PMI is consistently reported on every month. If you don't notice all the articles about rising PMI, that sounds like a you problem not a media problem. For example:

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C

CMP

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Wrought said:
PMI is consistently reported on every month. If you don't notice all the articles about rising PMI, that sounds like a you problem not a media problem. For example:

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The Western media likes to highlight singular data points or short term trends and imply that they represent long term trends. That's not news. It's propaganda 101 and lying with statistics 101.
 
Wrought

Wrought

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CMP said:
The Western media likes to highlight singular data points or short term trends and imply that they represent long term trends. That's not news. It's propaganda 101 and lying with statistics 101.
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Ok sure, but that wasn't the claim. This was:

Enestori said:
Every single time a media article comes out about China's PMI, the PMI is always negative. It's always something like 48, 49. Every single time, the article then states that this negative PMI shows China's manufacturing in decline.
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And it is demonstrably false. As I demonstrated.
 
Jiang ZeminFanboy

Jiang ZeminFanboy

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Reform makes it easier for migrants to gain city hukou
Drive aims to lift proportion of urban residents to 70 percent in five years

A new round of urbanization over the next five years aims to lift the proportion of urban residents to 70 percent of China's population and overhaul the country's two-track urban-rural hukou system, an official said on Friday.

The reform will enable migrant workers to better access public services, including healthcare and schooling, in their adopted homes, and help bolster domestic spending, Zheng Bei, deputy head of the National Development and Reform Commission, said at a policy briefing organized by the State Council Information Office in Beijing.

China has around 300 million rural migrant workers who work in its cities, according to official figures.

Their lack of city hukou, or permanent residency, means many have to leave their children behind in rural hometowns in the care of aging parents. They also end up paying more for medical services because they are not entitled to the same reimbursement rate as people holding city hukou.

Zheng said about 165 million migrants have settled down in cities and obtained permanent residency over the past decade.

The nation's urban residents, including those who live and work in cities but do not have urban hukou, comprised 66.16 percent of the population by the end of last year — up from 53.1 percent in 2012 — with the coverage of urban public services expanding significantly in that time.
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That demographic shift has not only supported China's economic growth but also enhanced the livelihoods of Chinese people, Zheng said, while acknowledging that there are still issues that need to be addressed during the urbanization process.

In the next five years, authorities will accelerate the construction of affordable housing and the redevelopment of shanty towns as part of a broader initiative to mitigate safety risks associated with rapid urbanization, she added.

The State Council, China's Cabinet, released a plan to advance "people-centered" urbanization over the next five years on Wednesday. It aims to enhance the country's domestic consumption by extending public service coverage to rural residents who have relocated to cities and by removing barriers preventing the m from obtaining permanent residency in their adopted homes.

The measures are widely viewed as promising tools for policymakers to reduce living costs and encourage consumer spending.

Citing official estimates, Zheng said that every 1 percentage point increase in China's urbanization rate equates to an increase of more than 200 billion yuan ($27.8 billion) in annual consumer demand.

From an investment perspective, urbanization can drive investment in urban utilities, public services, residential housing and other areas, she said.

"Therefore, the new type of urbanization can play an important role in expanding domestic demand, thereby promoting the stability and quality of economic growth, and enhancing people's livelihoods," Zheng said.

Qiu Baoli, director of the public security administration bureau of the Ministry of Public Security, said the ministry and other departments have been making adjustments to internal migration policies across the country since 2021. The residency thresholds in small and medium-sized cities have essentially been removed, while major cities have further relaxed migration restrictions, leading to an increase in the number of rural migrants moving to urban areas with their families.
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Ministry figures show that from 2021 to 2023, over 40 million rural migrants obtained urban hukou.

"The recent urbanization plan provides clear directives for deepening hukou system reforms over the next five years," Qiu said at the policy briefing.
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As part of the effort to relax internal migration policies, migrants only need to live and work for six months in cities with a population of less than 3 million to qualify for local hukou, and no additional restrictions such as property ownership, investment or tax payment requirements shall be attached, he said, adding that thresholds for permanent residency in larger cities will be lowered
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chgough34

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Maikeru said:
Well the US Manufacturing PMI came in at 49.6 so. not sure that's right. It's just a measure of sentiment.
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PMI is a diffusion index. A panel of respondents are asked if they are doing better (100), about the same (50), or worse (0) than they were in the previous month and then survey responses are averaged out. At 49.6, it would be that on net, companies report they are doing worse than before but that it’s very close to being about the same and that this ignores composition effects (ex., all small companies are doing worse but all large companies are doing better)
 
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SanWenYu

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CNOOC found a natural gas reserve of 100 billion cubic meters in the South Sea southeast of the Hainan island.

CNOOC is now one year ahead of its plan to discover up to 1000 billion cubic meters of NG reserves in the South Sea.

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中国海油7日宣布，在海南东南海域发现的陵水36-1气田新增探明储量顺利通过国家有关部门评审备案，探明天然气地质储量超1000亿立方米，为全球首个超深水超浅层大型气田。
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2018年，中国海油启动“七年行动计划”，明确到2025年建成“南海万亿大气区”。截至目前，中国海油在南海北部莺歌海、琼东南、珠江口3个盆地探明天然气地质储量累计超1万亿立方米，“南海万亿大气区”建设从蓝图走向现实。
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