Chinese Economics Thread

tphuang

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Just another day in US China trade tensions.

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Not exactly a secret. I've discussed this for a while now. China has been massively increasing its refineries and has a huge advantage in cheap crude import to feed these modern refineries. And that's a huge disaster for South Korea and Japan and Taiwan

No mercy here.
 

dingyibvs

Junior Member
I disagree with the Tariff for Tariff strategy. Some retaliation is fine, but it needs to be carefully targeted for maximum harm to the other country and minimum harm to yourself. Many times you won't find such amount of tariffs in commensurate amount, and that's perfectly fine.

There are really only two effective strategies. One is gunboat diplomacy. You know it goes with this one, foster an opposition, support said opposition with money, arms, and your own military if necessary. Is China ready and willing to do this all over the world? To build and maintain a western style hegemony?

The second strategy is to become a comprehensive industrial power, let countries protect what they want to protect, and sell to them what they can't make. For example, if Indonesia wants to protect their textile industry, set up textile factories in Indonesia, import Chinese cotton and designs, sell them to the world through Chinese apps, repatriate a share of the profit back to maintain an edge. Make other countries a part of the Chinese supply chain, rather than only exporting finished goods. If a country wants to wrestle the entire supply chain away, e.g. the US with the EV supply chain, well, let them try. If China is comprehensively superior and the American supply chain is less efficient every step of the way from the nuts and bolts to the final assembly, then they'll only end up creating dramatically uncompetitive products and be a siphon of wealth rather than a creator of it.

You can fight like a rock or like water and neither is easy. However, China is IMO better built to fight like water.
 

tonyget

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However while this will protect Indonesia's domestic industry, Indonesia producers will likely not be able to export competitively and it will make their downstream products less competitive, since this is a broad tariff.

According to the news,the items that Indonesia is targeted at are end consumer products. So no affect on downstream products
 

coolgod

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China needs to build a few more of these ships.
Since China isn't involved in exporting revolution, then what are Chinese carriers used for? Free trade of course. If the US Navy can't carry the banner of free trade, the Chinese Navy will. China is now the staunchest supporter of free trade and vehemently opposes protectionism. Carriers are built to help foreign leaders make wise decisions, including on trade.

There were some interesting discussion from the Guanqi gang on the Houthis targeting of commercial ships in the red sea. They claimed the US doesn't actually want to stop the Houthis cause they actually harm China more. The west use the Houthis' actions to justify a blanket increase in insurance rates which ultimately damage Chinese businesses. I think there are some elements of truth to this.

There are really only two effective strategies. One is gunboat diplomacy. You know it goes with this one, foster an opposition, support said opposition with money, arms, and your own military if necessary. Is China ready and willing to do this all over the world? To build and maintain a western style hegemony?
Gunboat diplomacy is the wrong way to phrase this, think of PLAN's carriers like a modern day version of Zheng He's treasure fleet. Its goals are to awe the other countries in joining in the China lead community with a shared future for mankind.
 
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hullopilllw

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These kind of trade barrier will only exacerbate in the foreseeable future,as China's overcapacity issue persists. The only way out is to boost domestic consumption,and create more jobs in service sector instead of manufacturing sector .
This is a western agent parroting the overcapacity narrative that's just coined late last year.

Admins please look into banning.
 
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hullopilllw

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You tend to repeat a lot of western talking points. It's been mentioned multiple times that overcapacity is a US state department Buzz word and had nothing to do with reality.

I agree with @tphuang . China should have symbolically or 100% tariff on something American just to prove a point like what they are doing with the Europeans.

However while this will protect Indonesia's domestic industry, Indonesia producers will likely not be able to export competitively and it will make their downstream products less competitive, since this is a broad tariff.
The Indonesian textile industries hadnt been competitive, be in pricing or manufacturing technique, for at least 2 decades. We are now importing clothes from Vietnam, Turkey and Bangladesh.

And since when does the ministries actually act out for the benefits of mass here. More like to generate income from importers.
 

gelgoog

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There were some interesting discussion from the Guanqi gang on the Houthis targeting of commercial ships in the red sea. They claimed the US doesn't actually want to stop the Houthis cause they actually harm China more. The west use the Houthis' actions to justify a blanket increase in insurance rates which ultimately damage Chinese businesses. I think there are some elements of truth to this.
Hah. The US just don't want to get into Afghanistan 2.0.
 

tphuang

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Not exactly a secret. I've discussed this for a while now. China has been massively increasing its refineries and has a huge advantage in cheap crude import to feed these modern refineries. And that's a huge disaster for South Korea and Japan and Taiwan

No mercy here.
More on this.

The funny part for me is just how quickly china is now building up its green chemical industry through all these ammonia and methanol production site from green hydrogen. Which means in the future, you are going to see Chinese green chemicals having monopolies out there if you want solution based on low carbon energy sources. There is just no movement from anyone else on these fronts.
 

Wrought

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Not a very common or popular view among foreign observers. I'm a bit surprised to see it published.

"My impression is that the top leadership actually is pretty comfortable with the way things are going," Kroeber of Gavekal Dragonomics said. "We're seeing domestically, a reallocation of capital away from the old sectors from infrastructure into new sectors" such as green energy and semiconductors.

"One of the reasons that you have not seen more fiscal support for the economy is that they don't think it's really necessary. The costs of the current economic policies both domestically and internationally, need to become much, much higher before you see the significant reorientation in Chinese policy."

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