Chinese Economics Thread

tphuang

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Haven't you noticed, the green propaganda slogans in the west have been replaced since China started dominating green tech. Selling "green" chemicals to europe just because it is "green" and nothing else is foolish.
that's with machineries. This is with green fuel. Not any different than selling coal or oil or natural gas
 

drowingfish

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there is not much talk about recent data that Chinese government's tax revenue fell compared to last year. this is a more grave concern than a lot of other things imo. typically all of the past Chinese dynasties' decline begins with decline in tax revenue. not saying that this is necessarily taking place already, but in the past successful corrective measures have also been painful.
 

Jiang ZeminFanboy

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there is not much talk about recent data that Chinese government's tax revenue fell compared to last year. this is a more grave concern than a lot of other things imo. typically all of the past Chinese dynasties' decline begins with decline in tax revenue. not saying that this is necessarily taking place already, but in the past successful corrective measures have also been painful.
What should we talk? There were big tax cuts to revive the economy, nothing surprising if the tax income dropped in that case.
 

Wrought

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there is not much talk about recent data that Chinese government's tax revenue fell compared to last year. this is a more grave concern than a lot of other things imo. typically all of the past Chinese dynasties' decline begins with decline in tax revenue. not saying that this is necessarily taking place already, but in the past successful corrective measures have also been painful.

Fiscal revenue is down because of the
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as opposed to income tax, consumption tax, etc. So the property sector slowdown means less revenue from property. That's not to say it's a good thing, of course, just a natural and expected consequence. There is some talk of
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which may or may not happen.

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Staedler

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China's economic stats continue to be all over the place. Official manufacturing PMI 49.5, composite 50.5, but Caixin 51.8. Why is Caixin usually so much better than official?

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My understanding is the official stat is mostly influenced by large companies, which tend to have significant overseas operations or are at least more export-dependent.

Caixin is more for smaller companies which mostly only produce for the domestic market and do not export.

Hence my interpretation for the past year and half is that the external "world" (really the West) market is not doing so well while the domestic market is mostly fine. But a poor global market still results in an appreciable drag on the local economy.

IMO it at least tracks. The Western markets have been quite poor for a while now due to the triple whammy of COVID/post-COVID impact, the sanctions on Russia, and the ongoing genocide in Gaza conducted by Israel.
 

Jiang ZeminFanboy

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Interesting thing is these global giants like Temu, Shein and Aliexpress operates in the de minimis teritorry. These packages from what I read are exempted from tarifs etc. I believe in the next phase of trade war, de minimis will basically be made non usable. (2025+ years) I think it will hit hard Chinese ecommerce giants, and additional inflation in usa and europe but a 3rd party western importer will earn money.
Frankly, It seems it's going to be earlier than I expected
 
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Overbom

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escobar

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US Ports Warn White House of ‘Grave’ Economic Risks With China Crane Tariff
In letters to the US Trade Representative Katherine Tai last week, ports in California, Florida, South Carolina, Texas and Virginia said there are no viable alternatives to Chinese cranes. They’re asking for a delay or withdrawal of the tariff plans that are part of USTR’s 301 case against China.
 
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