China's economic stats continue to be all over the place. Official manufacturing PMI 49.5, composite 50.5, but Caixin 51.8. Why is Caixin usually so much better than official?
My understanding is the official stat is mostly influenced by large companies, which tend to have significant overseas operations or are at least more export-dependent.
Caixin is more for smaller companies which mostly only produce for the domestic market and do not export.
Hence my interpretation for the past year and half is that the external "world" (really the West) market is not doing so well while the domestic market is mostly fine. But a poor global market still results in an appreciable drag on the local economy.
IMO it at least tracks. The Western markets have been quite poor for a while now due to the triple whammy of COVID/post-COVID impact, the sanctions on Russia, and the ongoing genocide in Gaza conducted by Israel.