Chinese Economics Thread

[GiantPanda]

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This is what happens when you go all in on consumption as economic policy over time (over-consume above your true productive capacity, you must go into high HH debt to finance that, and you get inflation as more and more money chases the same amount of goods).

And, at the end of the day, I bet that Chinese people feel way more comfortable and financially secure avoiding those pitfalls, and maybe this is why satisfaction and optimism-related polls are so good there. Also way less potential for financial contagion that way as well.

So, these data shouldn't signal anything "bad" and shouldn't signal "weakness", it is just an individual, deliberate, smart, responsible spending culture that is very stress-free. Production capacity and real wage increases are what matters in the end, not high consumerism.

I agree that real wages and overall production are better indicators.

But that said, consumption level in China is very high despite the Western narrative of low % of consumption (to go with accusations of overcapacity.)

Chinese bought 25M cars last year. They bought more European luxury cars (Benzes, BMWs, Audis, etc.) than any other country in the world, including the US. In fact, they are multiples of American sales for many of those foreign companies -- not just for cars.

Sales in China of TVs, refrigerators, air conditioners and every other major household appliances are multiples of the US figures.

 

[Serb]

You can have relatively weaker retail sales quarters or prints in general, and your economy is still doing good from a holistic standpoint, or the other way around, you have good retail sales, but your economy is doing badly overall (people essentially buy as much as possible now because they expect the prices to rise even further in the future). This is not about comparing countries, this is about examples.

 

[azn_cyniq]

If humanoid robots can master

1) Cooking
2) Vacuuming
3) Laundry
4) Dusting
5) Mopping
6) Bathroom cleaning

then I can see them becoming a must-buy for households. If a humanoid robot can free up 2-3 hours of your day (700-1000 hours a year), then it would actually be a worthwhile purchase. The potential market is enormous. There are 474 million households in China alone. If each humanoid robot costs $10,000, then the potential market would be $4.74 trillion. This doesn't include the economic impact of the subsystems and maintenance.

This probably won't come to fruition this decade or the one after that, but it may happen within my lifetime.

The technology is improving quite rapidly...

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Maybe I'm completely wrong, but China should pay close attention to this industry. It may be the foundation of the 5th industrial revolution.

 

[THX 1138]

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[sunnymaxi]

If humanoid robots can master

1) Cooking
2) Vacuuming
3) Laundry
4) Dusting
5) Mopping
6) Bathroom cleaning

then I can see them becoming a must-buy for households. If a humanoid robot can free up 2-3 hours of your day (700-1000 hours a year), then it would actually be a worthwhile purchase. The potential market is enormous. There are 474 million households in China alone. If each humanoid robot costs $10,000, then the potential market would be $4.74 trillion. This doesn't include the economic impact of the subsystems and maintenance.

This probably won't come to fruition this decade or the one after that, but it may happen within my lifetime.

The technology is improving quite rapidly...

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Maybe I'm completely wrong, but China should pay close attention to this industry. It may be the foundation of the 5th industrial revolution.

let me tell you some good news. this is your like second or third massage related Humanoid Robot ..

Chinese state is deeply involved in Humanoid Robot industry. full on support from state and local investors. in last 2 years, 12+ new Humanoid Robot start-up found. almost every week i see a newly found firm introduce their product. absolute EV like situation in mainland. so many companies. this is good for progress.

yesterday, RobotEra company just unveiled Xhand – a game-changer in embodied AI Bot

With 12 active degrees of freedom, built-in tactile sensors, high control precision, smooth and reliable operation, and fully self-developed technology, it's redefining robotics standards!

just see this Bot .. mind-blowing

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i personally follow this industry as well. all these companies developed core components locally. tight control on supply chain.

China right now is leading player globally in Humanoid Robot when it comes to cost and mass production. and recently revealed products are seems to be world class. one step above as compared to previous products..

Unitree could be next DJI if they play their cards well.. there are 4 to 5 more Humanoid Robot companies. one of them could be next big player.. so keep following the news..

This one is insane..

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Americans started to follow Chinese and Musk

Boston Dynamics is copying the footsteps of Elon Musk and Chinese competitors in converting to all electric motors. Their hydraulic actuators have high power density but are too expensive and commercially impractical..

 

[interestedseal]

I agree that real wages and overall production are better indicators.

But that said, consumption level in China is very high despite the Western narrative of low % of consumption (to go with accusations of overcapacity.)

Chinese bought 25M cars last year. They bought more European luxury cars (Benzes, BMWs, Audis, etc.) than any other country in the world, including the US. In fact, they are multiples of American sales for many of those foreign companies -- not just for cars.

Sales in China of TVs, refrigerators, air conditioners and every other major household appliances are multiples of the US figures.

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China’s retail sale (consumption of goods) as a percentage of GDP is actually much higher than US’s. It’s only China’s consumption of services that’s far lower than the US or western countries level in general. However most services are local and non-tradable. Two example: US healthcare services take higher share of its GDP than China but produces a lower life expectancy (despite having the most innovative biomed industry). The US also has a huge legal (lawyer) services industry that’s many times larger than China. The question is should China really emulate the US in this regard?

 

[canonicalsadhu]

If humanoid robots can master

1) Cooking
2) Vacuuming
3) Laundry
4) Dusting
5) Mopping
6) Bathroom cleaning

then I can see them becoming a must-buy for households. If a humanoid robot can free up 2-3 hours of your day (700-1000 hours a year), then it would actually be a worthwhile purchase. The potential market is enormous. There are 474 million households in China alone. If each humanoid robot costs $10,000, then the potential market would be $4.74 trillion. This doesn't include the economic impact of the subsystems and maintenance.

This probably won't come to fruition this decade or the one after that, but it may happen within my lifetime.

The technology is improving quite rapidly...

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Maybe I'm completely wrong, but China should pay close attention to this industry. It may be the foundation of the 5th industrial revolution.

May be premature to speculate but I honestly can see the humanoid robotics industry going the way of the current EV trends. The US companies like Boston Dynamics having the most advanced tech and focusing on premium segment (much like Tesla) while the Chinese companies focusing on reducing costs with acceptable tech to bring it to the mass market and then pouring their profits into R&D and eventually improving their tech and dominating the competition.
Also helps that Chinese people seem to be much more open to embracing new tech innovations while you can count on Americans politicizing the issue.

 

[GiantPanda]

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China’s retail sale (consumption of goods) as a percentage of GDP is actually much higher than US’s. It’s only China’s consumption of services that’s far lower than the US or western countries level in general. However most services are local and non-tradable. Two example: US healthcare services take higher share of its GDP than China but produces a lower life expectancy (despite having the most innovative biomed industry). The US also has a huge legal (lawyer) services industry that’s many times larger than China. The question is should China really emulate the US in this regard?

Yes, Chinese consumption of goods is much higher while services consumed like public transportation, government subsidized medical care, low rent, low electricity, etc. are undercounted especially when using dollar-based nominal accounting.

But aside from the legal and medical sectors that pump up American services value, even the normal day to day services like haircuts are heavily weighted for the US. In the US it is about 30 dollars for a haircut, double that for women, versus 30-50 Yuans in China about 7-fold for the same service. The reason they still fix cars in China while in the US simply replace parts is that labor is outrageously expensive.

In the real world, China consumes both more goods and more services that are just less expensive when calculated in nominal.

 

[tphuang]

really listen to this interview by Steve Hsu with Molson Hart

They discussed China's advantages really well

 

[pbd456]

I drink a lot of diet soda and I travel a lot. In china, I can routinely get 2L diet soda (Pepsi or coca cola) for 1 USD. Even in countries in Venezuela, Colombia and Paraguay (which is where I am now). It costs over 1.5 USD.