Chinese Economics Thread

Arij Javaid

Junior Member
Registered Member
I've already said it and I'm going to say it against that if China wishes, it can increase its nominal GDP to overtake the US within months

1. Use massive $800 billion trade surplus to prop up yuan.

2. Raise interest rates.

3. Increase inflation by increasing money supply.

4. Use $3.3 trillion in reserves to prop up yuan

Boom. Now china's yuan experiences a massive appreciation. In return, exports tank and companies become uncompetitive globally which will overstock the Chinese company. Real Consumption will decrease due to massive inflation which will reduce economic growth.

But atleast china gets to boast about the fact that it has a higher nominal GDP than US. This is all you need to know that it is a useless metric as overall productivity has not increased.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
There’s a subtler point here that those mandatory items have improved in quantity and quality. Ex., for housing, average house sizes have grown substantially for decades, and even things that are normal such as indoor plumbing were not common, ex., in 1970, 7% of US housing units did not have plumbing (
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). Ditto for utilities, ex. air conditioning used to be very rare in the 1980s but is in nearly every building today (
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) or the growth in second and third refrigerators (
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). All of this will increase demand for electricity and natural gas.
cost of air conditioner is negligible compared to the cost of a house
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vs. average housing value of 290k. All appliances added together have negligible costs compared to the price of the house itself.

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From what I see, the expected value of a house corrected for area increase and inflation would be 11.82x higher but the actual increase is 17x higher.
Healthcare costs and cost growth is concentrated in a small group of people, this is mainly due to technological developments that make previously fatal conditions, chronic diseases and thus very costly. Insurance isn’t dispositive - the fact that people now have substantial insurable interests - in both the life and property/casualty contexts shows greater affluence.
healthcare costs everywhere outside of the poorest countries is concentrated in a small group of people. that's how insurance can even function. however the
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,
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, and obesity is a major predictor for health problems. In addition the
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so even if US whites were their own country they'd still have a lower life expectancy than Brazil as a whole.

So it doesn't look like it's just a small group that is dragging down US life expectancy and the group increasing health costs isn't smaller than anywhere else given the broad prevalence of preexisting conditions like obesity.
Similarly for education - educational attainment at all levels has grown substantially, 40% of the US had a high school diploma in 1960 but 37% of people have a college diploma today (
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). At higher levels of education, it is indeed largely discretionary spending or a reflection of affluence that people can afford to not work for many more years to attend school. Food spending includes a lot of discretionary restaurant spending (
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) as well as discretionary spending on meats and processed foods.

This is all to say that a high percent of income spent on “necessities” is not proof of a lack of substantial improvement or discretionary spending.
yet in other countries with similar educational attainment, the cost of this education is socialized.
It’s not. It’s a methodological difference in where U.S. death certificates ask if the person that died was pregnant anytime in the last number of days (and it all gets lumped into maternal mortality, even if it’s something like a car accident) while other countries only count specific pregnancy-related mortality causes such as eclampsia or sepsis. Maternal mortality statistics are simply not comparable across countries since they are measuring completely different things


That still means that the rate of death of childbirthing women is increasing, which matches the observation that the US life expectancy is declining. The relationship does not have to be causal to indicate a problem.
 

chgough34

Junior Member
Registered Member
cost of air conditioner is negligible compared to the cost of a house
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vs. average housing value of 290k. All appliances added together have negligible costs compared to the price of the house itself.

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.
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From what I see, the expected value of a house corrected for area increase and inflation would be 11.82x higher but the actual increase is 17x higher.

healthcare costs everywhere outside of the poorest countries is concentrated in a small group of people. that's how insurance can even function. however the
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
,
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, and obesity is a major predictor for health problems. In addition the
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
so even if US whites were their own country they'd still have a lower life expectancy than Brazil as a whole.

So it doesn't look like it's just a small group that is dragging down US life expectancy and the group increasing health costs isn't smaller than anywhere else given the broad prevalence of preexisting conditions like obesity.

yet in other countries with similar educational attainment, the cost of this education is socialized.

That still means that the rate of death of childbirthing women is increasing, which matches the observation that the US life expectancy is declining. The relationship does not have to be causal to indicate a problem.
We seem to be talking over each other. My main point, which you do not seem to dispute, is that large shares of household spending in “necessities” is not per se contradictory to a lack of material well-being and the general improvements over the past few decades fit fairly coterminously with an increase in GDP.

On healthcare costs in particular, the exhaustive spenders of healthcare are the same people. This is what makes it different from a P&C insurer, where claimants are random, and why the health nondiscrimination provisions of the ACA were controversial. The U.S. is a net exporter of healthcare services, which should be fairly indicative that at the very expensive extensive margin, US healthcare is better; ex., for a triple bypass surgery. lower life expectancy isn’t necessarily evidence of a failure of healthcare nor even economic distress: health outcomes are broadly not determined by healthcare providers, including, inter Alia obesity. In fact, obesity and motor vehicle injury would be 2 examples where higher incomes would be negatively causal for life expectancy. Finally, the direction of MMR (up or down) is simply unknowable: states slowly moved to the more inclusive standard and thus how much of any increase was from a different sampling frame vs. actual increases in mortality require examinations of linked birth-death records, not summary statistics
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
China`s GDP per capita from National Bureau of Statistics of China from 2013 to 2023;

2023: 89,358 RMB ($12,584)​
2022: 85,310 RMB ($12,017)​
2021: 81,370 RMB ($11,462)​
2020: 71,828 RMB ($10,117)​
2019: 70,078 RMB ($9,871)​
2018: 65,534 RMB ($9,231)​
2017: 59,592 RMB ($8,394)​
2016: 53,783 RMB ($7,576)​
2015: 49,922 RMB ($7,032)​
2014: 46,912 RMB ($6,608)​
2013: 43,497 RMB ($6,126) - (USD in 2024-01-31 USD-RMB exchange rate for visualization)​
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If the RMB had not lost value since 2013 the China´s GDP would have reached about $14,157 (2024-01-31) exchange rate. Because of the weak RMB, China has fallen below the World´s average GDP per capita.
The value of the RMB is manipulated to serve the interests of national growth; the purpose is not to have a d*ck measuring competition with Saint Lucia, a place so inconsequential, I only know of its existence through my entomology hobby. When China wants to export more, the value is dropped, and if that causes or rather allows some people to paint it as a failure of the Chinese economy, the CCP doesn't care. When China revalues its currency to suit the economic situation, the West suddenly panicks with headlines like, "China's GDP growth this year surpassed the entire size of Canada's Economy!" And when they say that, the CCP still doesn't care.
China is in terms of GDP per capita (in USD) less productive than Mexico, Saint Lucia, Turkey, Argentina, Malaysia, Russia, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan.
And yet none of those countries have the power or technology to challenge the US. Is it due to just China's sheer size? On an individual basis, Chinese are known for higher scholastic achievement and STEM contribution than the citizens of these countries and of all other countries in the world as well. So what does that tell you about the usefulness of your metric?
I understand that there are politics, economic strategy and monetary policy involved here but still. Several members on this forum have argued that China would pass the USA`s GDP between 2025-2030.


There are no indication this event will happen in the 2020s. Mainstream economics indicate that China´s GDP (and GDP per capita) is falling in relation to other countries. This can in part can be explained by the weak RMB.
I also don't see this happening because China does not want this to happen and I don't see it as important either. China's PPP is already much higher and running away. National projects in technology and military, the pillars to national power, rely very primarily on PPP and only sometimes graze nominal GDP when a few things from a waning list are imported.
I want to add something that will not be popular among many members. China is not third world country in the sense of Burundi.
Nobody would have made that comparison except you, and China is a second world country.
China has always been technically superior to Africa with the exception of white-ruled apartheid South Africa.
Why thank you. America has always been technically superior to Latin American tribes except the Mayans.
Contemporary China is in many ways similar to the United Kingdom during Victorian era (1837-1901). A small and rich industrial and government elite that rule the people through a class of modestly wealthy and well-paid cohort of civil servants and professionals in the private industry.

Below the managerial class you find the working class. A class that to large extent consists of semi-skilled workers that work unsafe and dangerous factories for little money. China has also a growing class of poor urban workers. They sell what they find along the streets or in small shops. Many of them also work in the bottom of the service sector - driving food to the aloof managerial class. These workers live in slums with diseases, crime and poverty between the skyscrapers and modern high-rise buildings.
I'm sorry, did you think that you were describing China? Because having lived in both countries I thought for sure you were talking about the US. Especially with the US housing crisis, the rich getting much richer through the pandemic and the poor becoming homeless, this is certainly the US as it doesn't happen in China. In the end, when you talked about slums and crime and poverty, that was certainly California, wasn't it? You can't find a place in China where there are homeless encampments all over the street. You can't rob a store and broad daylight with your 25 friends and not expect to all go to jail in China. You're talking about America.
Rural China is still intact and 7.5% of Chinese GDP stem from a agriculture. The lives of Chinese rural peasants lives has not changed much and they contribute little per capita to the economy.
But the number of rural Chinese have dropped and are dropping further. The transformation of rural peasants into highly educated urban workers is the engine behind China's power. And there's a lot more engine left to be tapped into while America's already panicking on the ropes.
The average salary in the private industry is $770/month (2022). The average salary for a worker in government is $1340/month. These massive diffrences between an overpaid class of civil servants and everyone else are typical for developing countries. The median salary is no doubt much lower. This is how Chongqing look behind the finance, business and shopping districts.
Looks great to me! Everyone's safe, doing their thing, no aggressive homeless people threatening to rob you if you don't give them money. Nobody getting shot, nobody running through the streets with an armfull of loot, no hobo camps. America could really learn something from this.
Of course images like above is expected as Chinese workers make so little money.
How much do they make versus the cost of living? They're not hobos on welfare like Americans. Chinese look richer to me.
In June 2023 the youth unemployment in China hit 21%. By the end of 2023 it had dropped to 15% more in line with 2022. China, like so many other countries, think that (mass)production of college students will solve this issue. This has been tried and failed all over the world., in Sweden, India, South Africa, Brazil, Canada and the United States.
It just so happens that over the last few decades, China's specialty has become succeeding contrary to all Western beliefs and examples. If not, China's economy would have collapsed at least several times a year by now.
With automatization, increased corporate efficiency and lack of opportunity other than menial work many college educated Chinese youth will stay poor.
LOLOL Guess we need to kneecap our own technology, eh? That's the Western solution (for others). China's solution is to simply expand horizontally, create more so there's more for everyone. 10 workers producing 10 units doesn't become 1 worker with 10 machines producing 10 units; it becomes 10 workers with 100 machines producting 100 units. More for Chinese people, higher living standards for Chinese people.
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She's got a business and a home to live in; that's so nice. Check this American shit out:
Only a few countries have been able to reach a developed social and economic level. These are the Eastern European EU-members that were lifted by the European Union and Israel. Israel was lifted by the United States and the Jewish diaspora. The others are Singapore, South Korea and Japan.
What does "a developed social and economic level" mean? If you can have poorer technology, a stagnant economy, higher crime, drug addiction, homelessness compared to a "developing country" like China, what does the tag of "developed economy" mean?
The only countries in Asia that show potential are China and Vietnam. China seem to fail it´s mission.
No, China has succeeded in keeping its developing nation status for the benefits it offers. America has failed its mission to remove that status and convey a developed nation status on China.
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But...
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Eventine

Junior Member
Registered Member
So from your data, consumption as typically imagined when people talk about the US, like everyone is living large, buying luxury products, changing TVs and phones and clothes all the time, etc, is misleading.

Based on your data, mandatory payments to maintain a modern society like housing, utilities, healthcare, insurance, education and food are the greatest contributors to US GDP. Reducing costs in these, good for ordinary consumers, would ironically lead to a decline in GDP.

According to that data, discretionary spending like automotive, retail, all intellectual property and research, etc. is dwarfed by survival concerns.
This sort of GDP distribution is very normal for "developed economies."

See, in the current international system, we have a situation where global capital - mostly controlled by the West and its close allies -
flows into countries with cheap labor, utilizes said labor to build products, and then exports those products to countries with more expensive labor at a profit.

This has three effects:
  • Destroys industries in richer countries, as seen in the de-industrialization of almost all of the West, most of South America, and increasingly Japan. These countries are forced to convert to being "service economies" because, simply put, they cannot compete with the cheap labor since their workers cannot survive on the pay required to be competitive.
  • Concentrates more and more wealth in the hands of the financial elite, who subsequently invest it in whatever assets they can find, particularly in developed economies since, after all, they can't guarantee their security in third world countries due to less mature capital markets, more authoritarian or socialist governments, weaker rule of law, etc. This is the reason there's so many trillions tied up in the US stock market.
  • Inflates the value of the currency of these "developed economies" as a result of the capital in flow from profits taken from developing countries, as well as the transfer of "new money" from those countries into their own financial markets for pretty much the same reasons as stated above.
The end result is that "developed economies" inevitably become "service economies," which is just a nice way of saying, they don't have much in the way of industry, but do have an inflated currency due to the concentration of capital in their assets markets, and so it will seem like they are producing tons of value just from basic jobs.

Put it another way, a guy working fast food in the US makes more money than a rocket scientist in Russia. Do people think the guy working fast food is objectively contributing more value than the Russian scientist?
 
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AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
The U.S. is a net exporter of healthcare services, which should be fairly indicative that at the very expensive extensive margin, US healthcare is better; ex., for a triple bypass surgery. lower life expectancy isn’t necessarily evidence of a failure of healthcare nor even economic distress: health outcomes are broadly not determined by healthcare providers, including, inter Alia obesity. In fact, obesity and motor vehicle injury would be 2 examples where higher incomes would be negatively causal for life expectancy. Finally, the direction of MMR (up or down) is simply unknowable: states slowly moved to the more inclusive standard and thus how much of any increase was from a different sampling frame vs. actual increases in mortality require examinations of linked birth-death records, not summary statistics

You neglect to mention that the US healthcare system has more medication and treatment errors than the UK, Germany, Canada etc

This is arguably the most important "quality" metric in any healthcare system, yet the US "spends" so much more

Source below.
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Eventine

Junior Member
Registered Member
So it seems there isn't much that China can do that would boost GDP other than monetizing what would otherwise be social services.

Urbanization will likely drive continued increase in healthcare, housing and transport sectors but that will be tapped out within 10 years as China transitions to a stable 75-80% urbanization rate.

Consumer spending on personal goods is nearing saturation and investment is tapering off as infrastructure is built out. R&D spending is getting close.

So what's the next step? How to raise GDP without destroying the middle class? It seems like all the possible avenues of growth, even software, autos, semiconductors, etc are just so small compared to the frankly ridiculous levels of privatized healthcare, housing and insurance spending.
This is exactly the recommendation from Western economists. "To get the Chinese consumer to spend more, you must develop better social safety nets." In other words, spend more money on health care, insurance, housing, etc.

The problem is this isn't actually why health care, insurance, housing, etc. are such a large % of Western economies. The reason for that is because they have little industrial output. Or in other words, they don't have much of an economy outside of basic services that contribute a huge amount to their GDP, not because it's of such high value, but because of the exchange rate.

Fact is, there are isolated countries like Cuba that have 70% of their economy tied up in services, as well. But nobody thinks Cuba is a rich country. Most of your economy can be basic services and you can still be poor, because this isn't what determines whether you are rich or not in nominal terms. The exchange rate is what determines that. Follow the exchange rate and you will learn the secret to the wealth of nations.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
This sort of GDP distribution is very normal for "developed economies."

See, in the current international system, we have a situation where global capital - mostly controlled by the West and its close allies -
flows into countries with cheap labor, utilizes said labor to build products, and then exports those products to countries with more expensive labor at a profit.

This has three effects:
  • Destroys industries in richer countries, as seen in the de-industrialization of almost all of the West, most of South America, and increasingly Japan. These countries are forced to convert to being "service economies" because, simply put, they cannot compete with the cheap labor since their workers cannot survive on the pay required to be competitive.
  • Concentrates more and more wealth in the hands of the financial elite, who subsequently invest it in whatever assets they can find, particularly in developed economies since, after all, they can't guarantee their security in third world countries due to less mature capital markets, more authoritarian or socialist governments, weaker rule of law, etc. This is the reason there's so many trillions tied up in the US stock market.
  • Inflates the value of the currency of these "developed economies" as a result of the capital in flow from profits taken from developing countries, as well as the transfer of "new money" from those countries into their own financial markets for pretty much the same reasons as stated above.
The end result is that "developed economies" inevitably become "service economies," which is just a nice way of saying, they don't have much in the way of industry, but do have an inflated currency due to the concentration of capital in their assets markets, and so it will seem like they are producing tons of value just from basic jobs.

Put it another way, a guy working fast food in the US makes more money than a rocket scientist in Russia. Do people think the guy working fast food is objectively contributing more value than the Russian scientist? If so, then the US is incredible - a miracle economy that no one can ever match.

But if not, then we should all think more carefully about the numbers.
What I see isn't merely that - yes, there isn't much construction, fixed asset investment, etc. There's also not much consumption of any physical products and direct consumer services either! Automobiles, electronics, media and research are touted to be the 'driving forces' of the US economy... but they're still small compared to real estate, healthcare, insurance, etc.

It's not just a consumption or service economy, it looks to me like a rentier economy where huge value is extracted from monetized basic social services and asset investment, which sucks the capital out of the economy for everything else.

This is exactly the recommendation from Western economists. "To get the Chinese consumer to spend more, you must develop better social safety nets." In other words, spend more money on health care, insurance, housing, etc.

The problem is this isn't actually why health care, insurance, housing, etc. are such a large % of Western economies. The reason for that is because they have little industrial output. Or in other words, they don't have much of an economy outside of basic services that contribute a huge amount to their GDP, not because it's of such high value, but because of the exchange rate.

Fact is, there are isolated countries like Cuba that have 70% of their economy tied up in services, as well. But nobody thinks Cuba is a rich country. Most of your economy can be basic services and you can still be poor, because this isn't what determines whether you are rich or not in nominal terms. The exchange rate is what determines that. Follow the exchange rate and you will learn the secret to the wealth of nations.
But what is critical, spending, or the end result? Seems to me like it's the spending, not the end result.

China already has a decent social safety net: universal health insurance covering 90%+ of the population with 80%+ payouts on treatment, free welfare for rural villagers, etc. You can see the high performance based on KPI like improved life expectancy, healthy life expectancy, maternal mortality, infant mortality, low infectious disease burden, etc.

But these are social services aimed to deliver highest performance at lowest cost. Wouldn't this show up as being lower on GDP than a highly inefficient system of low performance at high cost, that is gotten around just by printing money with high inflation? I mean Turkey had 60% inflation last year and now their nominal GDP is 30% bigger.
 

Eventine

Junior Member
Registered Member
What I see isn't merely that - yes, there isn't much construction, fixed asset investment, etc. There's also not much consumption of any physical products and direct consumer services either! Automobiles, electronics, media and research are touted to be the 'driving forces' of the US economy... but they're still small compared to real estate, healthcare, insurance, etc.

It's not just a consumption or service economy, it looks to me like a rentier economy where huge value is extracted from monetized basic social services and asset investment, which sucks the capital out of the economy for everything else.
An Apple iPhone is about the same price in China as it is in the US. But fast food workers are paid much less in China than in the US.

In other words, luxury products scale to currency exchange rates, but basic services do not. This is the observation you are making. The US has such a large % of its GDP tied up in basic services because labor is very expensive in the US, and that's almost entirely due to the exchange rate differences. Other industries just cannot compete.

But what is critical, spending, or the end result? Seems to me like it's the spending, not the end result.

China already has a decent social safety net: universal health insurance covering 90%+ of the population with 80%+ payouts on treatment, free welfare for rural villagers, etc. You can see the high performance based on KPI like improved life expectancy, healthy life expectancy, maternal mortality, infant mortality, low infectious disease burden, etc.

But these are social services aimed to deliver highest performance at lowest cost. Wouldn't this show up as being lower on GDP than a highly inefficient system of low performance at high cost, that is gotten around just by printing money with high inflation? I mean Turkey had 60% inflation last year and now their nominal GDP is 30% bigger.
There is an argument to be made that, at the high end, US services are of higher quality than China's - for example in health care, where the US has access to better technology, equipment, high end medicine, etc. But there's also a great deal of waste.

The better comparison, to not get into trivial arguments over the quality of service, is in basic services. Because anyone can see that the guy working at a fast food restaurant in the US isn't producing better quality service than his equivalent in China. But he's being paid much, much more for it.

This is how you ultimately realize the reason American GDP is so high - it's because average Americans working average jobs generate so much more nominal wealth than average Chinese, even though the work is the same.
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
The U.S. is a net exporter of healthcare services, which should be fairly indicative that at the very expensive extensive margin, US healthcare is better; ex., for a triple bypass surgery.

A comparison of heart surgery death rates doesn't come up immediately.
But a gastro surgery comparison between Japan and the US does come up first.

The surgical death rate in the US is twice the Japan level. Yet US costs are completely bloated in comparison.
In Japan, a heart bypass surgery is $14K. It's 8x more expensive in the USA at $123K

And if you want to compare the cost of cardiac stents used for heart surgery, it looks like US hospitals charge between 3-9x more money for the exact same cardiac stents than in a British hospital.

The reality is that overall, the American healthcare system is "average or worse" compared to Western Europe or developed Asia.

You've been brainwashed into thinking American healthcare is the best, because that is the only way that a for-profit healthcare system can justify charging obscene amounts compared to other countries.

---

Sources below

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ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5008495/#:~:text=Risk%20Profiles%20and%20Outcomes&text=Thirty%2Dday%20unadjusted%20mortality%20rates,Japan%20and%202.57%25%20in%20US.


And some more comparisons below.

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