Chinese Economics Thread

[TK3600]

The answer in my humble opinion is not economic, it is political.

What I believe is that the West and the people in control generally are all Liberals.

What I noticed about Liberals, that peak Liberals are unable to compare two numbers. They literally do not know which number is bigger than the other.

Now, the retort to that, is not political, it is algebra.

Math, A = B + C

Liberals in the West, hold that A = B + C to be the truth regardless of what the numbers say.

Attack! Chinese should confront them by saying A = D + X ... you damn nimrods.

There are not interested in talking about numbers, they want to talk human/algebra or economic/algebra.

You know, it is what Chairman Mao said about intellectuals.

Then, who's humanistic/economic/political-economy algebra is correct?

That, we have to go back to the numbers, which they cannot accept, and as a consequence banned you for asking the obvious.

Then they will live happily ever after.

After President Trump comes back, of course.

Liberals: A = B + C

China: A = D + E

Liberals: True, because B = D, and C = E

China: B != D, C != E, but A = D + E

Liberals:

------ math version

Liberals: 5 = 1 + 4

China: 5 = 2 + 3

Liberals: True, because 1 = 2, and 4 = 3

China: 1 != 2, 4 != 3, but 5 = 2 + 3

Liberals:

----- political version

Liberals: Prosperity = Liberal values + Election

China: Prosperity = Prosocial value + Effective government

Liberals: True, because Liberal values = prosocial value, and Election = Effective government

China: Liberal values != Prosocial value, Election != Effective government, but Prosperity = Prosocial value + Effective government

Liberals:

 

[Biscuits]

Germany, Japan, and South Korea money are being sucked dry by the US. How much wealth do they still have?

Raw money is not the same as economical power. The latter is generated by money in circulation that can be exchanged into goods, which in turn allow more capabilities to be created for the host economy.

What US has today is lots of money without ways to redistribute it into useful avenues. Unwitting Americans brag about being able to "harvest" from US allies, what it actually means in practice is that money from oligarchs in EU or Japan is moved to US oligarchs... Which have no way of investing them into improving US economy, because actors that provide tangible goods do not want to set up shop in America, or do so at anywhere near reasonable rates. Hence, US has propped up a functioning state budget due to "harvesting", but the toll on its own living standard(wage growth) and productive capability cannot be mended by such means.

A national economy is akin to a hydroelectric powerplant, with money being the water that flows through. Accumulation of money is pointless, what actually creates growth is the constant passing of money through the system, through which new capabilities are gained by the country.

There is a reason China is not in a hurry to order every country to use Yuan as its only reserve, despite potentially having a fair bit of authority at enforcing such an ultimatum, and would rather see a third party/artifical global currency being used instead.

Both US and China did not experience their rise while they were reserve currencies of anything, but when they were able to circulate currency consistently for new investments, creating new markets and so on.

Having reserve currency today will not help US surpass China. Only US being able to create new markets, invest money into infrastructure, projects and so on could set them up with real productive growth that could make them catch up.

 

[horse]

------ math version

Liberals: 5 = 1 + 4

China: 5 = 2 + 3

Liberals: True, because 1 = 2, and 4 = 3

China: 1 != 2, 4 != 3, but 5 = 2 + 3

Liberals:

US Extends Lead Over China in Race for World’s Biggest Economy

• US ends 2023 with a bang while China struggles with a bust
• Ex-IMF official calls it ‘a striking turn of fortunes’

By Rich Miller and Enda Curran
January 25, 2024

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

The US has pulled further ahead of China in the race for world’s biggest economy, thanks in part to a vibrant American consumer.

US gross domestic product rose 6.3% in nominal terms — that is, unadjusted for inflation — last year, outpacing China’s 4.6% gain. While some of the outperformance reflected America’s elevated price increases, the 2023 outturn underscores a broader point: The US economy is emerging from the pandemic period in a better place than China’s.

That is the mainstream Liberal media.

Bloomberg was mayor of New York City. He was a Liberal. Everyone from NYC is a Liberal.

 

[tamsen_ikard]

US Extends Lead Over China in Race for World’s Biggest Economy

• US ends 2023 with a bang while China struggles with a bust
• Ex-IMF official calls it ‘a striking turn of fortunes’

By Rich Miller and Enda Curran
January 25, 2024

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

That is the mainstream Liberal media.

Bloomberg was mayor of New York City. He was a Liberal. Everyone from NYC is a Liberal.

If past trend hold, then US is going through its bubble phase at the moment that is about to pop due to Fed interest rates. I see stories of layoffs in many industries. So, it seems the collapse has started. Once that bubble pops, that will lead to deep recession.

China is going through its own deep recession since it has already popped several bubbles including property and tech bubble that happened during the pandemic. Plus, they didn't do huge government money printing during the pandemic. The lingering effect of the lockdowns are still there.

But the question is, will this model hold? What if China cannot get out of this deep recession and property continues to become a drag. Will Chinese govt stop its non-stop crackdowns and start some serious stimulus now?

Moreover, Is US economy going to defy conventional norms and keep growing its bubbles without ever popping?

I worry about this sometimes. Let's hope the conventional thinking prevails this time.

 

[Chevalier]

US Extends Lead Over China in Race for World’s Biggest Economy

• US ends 2023 with a bang while China struggles with a bust
• Ex-IMF official calls it ‘a striking turn of fortunes’

By Rich Miller and Enda Curran
January 25, 2024

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

That is the mainstream Liberal media.

Bloomberg was mayor of New York City. He was a Liberal. Everyone from NYC is a Liberal.

Bloomberg also published the fake news about Chinese spy chips, their professionalism and objectivity is in doubt.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

If past trend hold, then US is going through its bubble phase at the moment that is about to pop due to Fed interest rates. I see stories of layoffs in many industries. So, it seems the collapse has started. Once that bubble pops, that will lead to deep recession.

China is going through its own deep recession since it has already popped several bubbles including property and tech bubble that happened during the pandemic. Plus, they didn't do huge government money printing during the pandemic. The lingering effect of the lockdowns are still there.

But the question is, will this model hold? What if China cannot get out of this deep recession and property continues to become a drag. Will Chinese govt stop its non-stop crackdowns and start some serious stimulus now?

Moreover, Is US economy going to defy conventional norms and keep growing its bubbles without ever popping?

I worry about this sometimes. Let's hope the conventional thinking prevails this time.

Unless the US wants the expansion of homelessness or to actually follow through on their threats of eliminating the homeless, they will have to lower interest rates which are absolutely destroying the real estate market while rents continue to climb.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

• Rents average $1,957 across the U.S. Typical asking rents in the U.S. are 3.3% higher than at the same time last year.
• More income is required to rent. The median person must make $79,264 to afford rent — paying about 30% of income.

Actually, making 79k per year is take home 5.3k per month, so 2k rent is 38% income.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

But lower interest rates means USD devaluation and higher inflation both of which are politically sensitive.

 

[ansy1968]

If past trend hold, then US is going through its bubble phase at the moment that is about to pop due to Fed interest rates. I see stories of layoffs in many industries. So, it seems the collapse has started. Once that bubble pops, that will lead to deep recession.

China is going through its own deep recession since it has already popped several bubbles including property and tech bubble that happened during the pandemic. Plus, they didn't do huge government money printing during the pandemic. The lingering effect of the lockdowns are still there.

But the question is, will this model hold? What if China cannot get out of this deep recession and property continues to become a drag. Will Chinese govt stop its non-stop crackdowns and start some serious stimulus now?

Moreover, Is US economy going to defy conventional norms and keep growing its bubbles without ever popping?

I worry about this sometimes. Let's hope the conventional thinking prevails this time.

We have to be grateful to the American, we had to swallow a bitter pill to get well and the American action make it more palpable....lol
Here is where their gripe against China is so evident, instead of us Helping them like those of 2008 and sharing the pain, we just focus on our vulnerability to make us stronger.

 

[zgx09t]

If past trend hold, then US is going through its bubble phase at the moment that is about to pop due to Fed interest rates. I see stories of layoffs in many industries. So, it seems the collapse has started. Once that bubble pops, that will lead to deep recession.

China is going through its own deep recession since it has already popped several bubbles including property and tech bubble that happened during the pandemic. Plus, they didn't do huge government money printing during the pandemic. The lingering effect of the lockdowns are still there.

But the question is, will this model hold? What if China cannot get out of this deep recession and property continues to become a drag. Will Chinese govt stop its non-stop crackdowns and start some serious stimulus now?

Moreover, Is US economy going to defy conventional norms and keep growing its bubbles without ever popping?

I worry about this sometimes. Let's hope the conventional thinking prevails this time.

If you compare current SHIBOR overnight and comparable fed overnight, factoring in relative inflation in both, you'd see they are neck to neck. Both central banks are teeing up the economy from the same point basically. China's regulated depository institution size is absolutely bigger, like 3X, so who's checking whose flanks is hard to tell, but US shadow banking size is an absolute monster. It's their reserve currency status serving the shadow banking, backed up by military power, is what's getting the US going this far, despite gargantuan wage suppression, double deficits, high debts level, waste, money printing, etc. It's the implicit promise of potential higher returns of US shadow banking, ie, wall street basically, unlike the regulated depository institutions who are to comply with mandatory rate caps, that keeps the USD inflows coming that would almost never dry up, like a pyramid scheme there's always a sucker who'd come in later to pay out the former . This show will keep on going until one of the three legs goes; reserve status, shadow banking, military power. Then US is done.

 

[gadgetcool5]

Honestly China should not complain too much about the Western press drinking their own Kool Aid over nominal GDP and patting themselves the back over how high inflation is in the US. It's better to be underestimated than overestimated. China continues to grow faster in GDP (PPP) terms and that's what's important, as well as the natural and correct result given that China's per capita GDP is so much lower to begin with.

 

[MortyandRick]

It'd be safe to assume anything substantial, dramatic and forceful proportions will not happen before 2 sessions where they normally pronounce details. In the meantime it's mostly maintaining stability.

Big stimulus usually has a crowding out effect, as big policy banks push out small and medium banks and the other big banks out of the deposit market, leading to shadow banking, which then again leads to all those speculations and bubbles, so we don't want that coming back again when you are already fighting the same problems. It will just take time to reset the whole thing, going slow and steady will make it to get there faster actually, as past excesses need time to pass through the cycle.

Thanks for that.
I’m not well versed in economics. But what about small stimulus, to increase consumer sentiment? Give people some support after COVID? stimulate hiring young people? I feel there’s a lot of middle ground that could be explored?