Chinese Economics Thread

hereforsemithread

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There was so much power and control involved that.....this is now the biggest problem on the Central Government's hands. Yes, they have so much control that this debt pile is exactly what they planned for. Got it. You're making a lot of sense here.
This thinking is absurdly black and white. You can have power while still having to reckon with real costs of using that power in certain ways. That doesn't make the power itself invalid. You speak as if the only way the central government could have power and control over the economy is if they can do whatever they want completely cost free and anything short of that means they simply lack the ability to affect change. That is not how governance works.
They could give stocks a big and sustained boost. There would be substantial costs of doing so, so they choose not to. What about this is so hard to understand?
There are many ways to deleverage a debt bubble - namely - you can pay down the debt; or you can grow the equity and deleverage by growing yourself out of it.
Doing any of these things successfully is contingent on first stopping the growth of the debt pile itself. It doesn't matter how much bad debt you settle into a long term repayment plan or force developers to liquidate their assets to repay if new bad debt is constantly coming into the system. And China growing out of its existing post-2008 debt pile is dependent on it diversifying its economy away from real estate and establishing a system of government borrowing based on public bonds instead of land sales and unpublicized bank loans. Those things must happen first before the stock market can serve the role that beijing eventually wants it to, hence it choosing to prioritize them over boosting the market.

To further explain: beijing must keep borrowing costs relatively high to ensure developers and LGFVs cannot try to halt their deleveraging by rolling over debt, which is bad for stocks because it means a higher discount rate and less overall liquidity laying around to bid up prices.
 
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Overbom

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  • Without the growth from clean-energy sectors, China’s GDP would have missed the government’s growth target of “around 5%”, rising by only 3.0% instead of 5.2%.
That's the most important. If people still wonder how China can still grow so much even with real estate in the mud, show them this quote. China is successfully managing to contain it by growing its Green Energy industries
 

Serb

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Chinese consumption to GDP ratio and overall GDP are severely underestimated due to different accounting methods than the West.


What we conclude from all this is that on an apples-to-apples UN SNA basis, Chinese households are consuming much more than 38% of GDP. And investments are much less than 42% of GDP.

If we had to ballpark it, we would say China’s household consumption is 50-55% of GDP, investment is 30-34% of GDP and total GDP needs to be grossed up by 25-40%.


What we are dealing with is a legacy of China having never properly transitioned from its Soviet-era Material Product System (MPS) system of national accounts to the United Nations’ System of National Accounts (SNA) standard. MPS accounting is only concerned with material production. Services are considered costs of production and excluded by design.

In China’s first attempt at converting MPS to SNA in 1985, it tacked on a ludicrously low 13% to the MPS number and called it China’s services GDP. Over the years, the World Bank has twisted the arm of China’s National Bureau of Statistics for modest increases to China’s services GDP with limited success. The NBS fought tooth and nail to minimize these adjustments in order to maintain developing economy status for as long as possible.


I think this is more due to the "hide your capabilities" type philosophy. While the US does everything it can to prop its image up, China does the opposite due to different cultures.

Mainly this helps them buy as much time as possible to rise peacefully unobstructed without raising alarms to the rest of the world, and also it's good to be underestimated and give your enemy a false image of your capabilities, making all of their plans fall once they start.

More data propping this up, Chinese GDP is supposedly only 18% of the global, and its consumption is only 13% of the global, but look at this:


China also accounts for over 30% of cars sold globally, over 20% of mobile phones, over 40% of televisions and 25% of furniture. Drill down in just about any consumer category, excluding firearms, and China will likely be consuming well over 20% of the global total.


If "over-investing" and "over-supply" are truly that bad, then you wouldn't have this situation, would you? But low-quality Western economists don't understand that "over-investment" and "over-supply" lead to lower prices, which lead to more sales as you now penetrate income groups that otherwise wouldn't have been able to buy your products. This is especially important for China which guns for common prosperity and that has significantly weaker standards of living than countries in the West.

And then those increases in sales lead to more profits for their companies, which leads to more employment, higher wages, and more economic activity in general. That's not mentioning how "over-investment" especially could lead to creating entirely new products/features, which could lead to growth in sales (consumption). Consumption is not just services, consumption is everything from consumer electronics to cars as well. This is not to mention all the capital gained through exports. Yes, you could truly "over-invest" if you do it inefficiently and it doesn't lead to increased wages, economic activity, and GDP, but that isn't the problem in China.



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Serb

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China's total value add and total factor productivity are repressed due to how much foreign energy and minerals China has to import due to natural constraints/population density. Also bad for natsec.

But this will be very different in the future. This is good news not just for China, but for many other countries in the world (thanks to Chinese tech) as well. Coal-generated electricity already peaked in China and the world this year,

And Solar investment already eclipsed natural gas and oil this year, and is a cheaper source of energy for geographies with strong solar potentials. And the affordability will continue rising in the future.






 

Blitzo

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China's total value add and total factor productivity are repressed due to how much foreign energy and minerals China has to import due to natural constraints/population density. Also bad for natsec.

But this will be very different in the future. This is good news not just for China, but for many other countries in the world (thanks to Chinese tech) as well. Coal-generated electricity already peaked in China and the world this year,

And Solar investment already eclipsed natural gas and oil this year, and is a cheaper source of energy for geographies with strong solar potentials. And the affordability will continue rising in the future.







I've told this to others before as well, but if you're going to post a link to twitter/X thread, can you just post the initial tweet and ask people to open the link while posting a summary as you did here -- or alternatively use a consolidation tool and just post the entire thread here instead.


The formatting of twitter/X really isn't conducive to posting multiple different links in the same forum post.
 
I've told this to others before as well, but if you're going to post a link to twitter/X thread, can you just post the initial tweet and ask people to open the link while posting a summary as you did here -- or alternatively use a consolidation tool and just post the entire thread here instead.


The formatting of twitter/X really isn't conducive to posting multiple different links in the same forum post.
Hi Blitzo.

Some of us DO NOT HAVE Twitter accounts (or have limited access to X twitter) and can only see the individual tweet without the subsequent links. So posting the subsequent tweet helps us follow the narration of the twitter feed. It has been like this since a few months now after the recent changes.
 

Serb

Junior Member
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Continuing on how China's TFP is already heavily skewed to the downside due to the country's overall capital being heavily invested in long-term-type assets like real estate and infrastructure, since the early 2020s, which have lower returns per year (how TFP is measured), but continue giving various types of returns (not just economic, but quality of life, social returns, etc) for a very long time, more and more as time goes on.

This is because China is still developing/urbanizing, building its long-term housing stock and infrastructure, unlike the developed countries. This is to take advantage of the Chinese still present large blue-collar workforce making labor much cheaper now unlike what it will be in the future.

However, once they fix the energy imports and finish building long-term assets, their TFP will rise and GDP growth become easier to achieve. Once the demography changes, blue-collar workforces gradually get replaced with a highly educated workforce, and the urbanization rate gradually reaches around 75-90% - this trend will officially be done. This will completely "liberate" their capital to go full-on into production.

More capital will go into business investment, and physical assets, to meet the different specialization levels of the new generations, mainly tertiary and STEM-educated, which will result in higher TFP and GDP growths on a short-term and yearly, more immediate kind of basis.

That's why achieving 5% growth in the 2020s, and 4% in the 2030s won't be that hard, because Western economists don't project it right, they don't factor in various disbalances of the TFP in their GDP growth projections for China for the future. There will be a huge bump in it.

People often think that China's heavy focus on real estate, and infrastructure artificially 'boosts' its GDP, but it's the opposite. It lowers their present growth rate for higher growth in total, opting for the scenario that will bring in the most growth long-term in total, eliminating inefficiencies & costs for future generations, completely alien to Western 4-year-long governments lacking any long-term nat. strategy.

The two images below illustrate the exact points stated here. Of course, this economic shift won't happen at the same time, but naturally following the demographic trends, the transformation will be gradual. It only probably just kick-started a few years ago since around 2020.





F0ewqg4aQAI_QSx




-1x-1.png
 

Blitzo

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Hi Blitzo.

Some of us DO NOT HAVE Twitter accounts (or have limited access to X twitter) and can only see the individual tweet without the subsequent links. So posting the subsequent tweet helps us follow the narration of the twitter feed. It has been like this since a few months now after the recent changes.

I'm aware, in that case if users can create a summary of the thread instead and post it as a single cohesive post rather than multiple separate links of inconsistent formatting.
 
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