Chinese Economics Thread

MortyandRick

Senior Member
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ell, strange enough CCP seems not taking into account the experts' opinion that stocks don't matter much but rather western likes
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and now in panic mode without any coordination with yesterday PBOC leaving-prime-rates-unchanged-descision is weighing on $278 bln rescue plan. Which of course is too little too late and will be probably served with more futile attempts to restrict short selling and more purges, aka corruption cases. I suppose this is irrelevant for the majority here who neither own stocks nor real estates but obviously not for all Chinese and above all not for CCP. And GDP is bigger than in USA but maybe there is less efficiency, like more electricity is used in older semi technology rather than 2-4 nm which doesn't lead to productivity gains, etc.
Ahh yes. Zero hedge, the bastion of accurate non click bait news.
pretty sure your ludicrous comment on purges from their ”futile attempt” really shows your knowledge of Chinas economic system. Notice you said you’re living in the EU? How’s their economic metrics doing?

oh and the cope and mental masturbation that you spew! Maybe China uses more electricity because they are less efficient? Lol wtf are you talking about. Please show some data about this or you’re just talking out of your ass. BTw the Us can’t manufacture 2-4nm either. You’re kind of like an old recurrent acquaintance on this forum called sleepystudent. He a cousin of yours?
 

Serb

Junior Member
Registered Member
China is at least 20-30 years away from stagnation and the so-called "peak China".

This is the only common sense logical conclusion you can reach if you are rational.






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GiantPanda

Junior Member
Registered Member
With articles like this in many western media outlets, the public is slowly being convinced to try to sanction, tariff and degrade Chinese EV export to the world and the west more specifically. I think its almost certain that Chinese Cars will not be allowed into US at all, most likely be sanctioned, tariffed out of the market by EU in the future as well.

China doesn't have an equal response to this. All the US and EU cars are already losing market share in China, moreover, those cars also made in China so not much contribution by EU or US economy there. So, China probably cannot or will not ban these cars.

China's retaliation will most likely come from agriculture and luxury goods market of EU and US.

China's response would be to do its own thing and grow. Right now, foreign owns 50% of the Chinese market that is nearing 30M. That is equivalent to the entire US market. Concentrate on taking that and expanding in the Global South and it will max the capacity of China's auto industry for the forseeable future.

Tit for tat is not always the best response. If China reacted to the trade war after the US banning Huawei by blocking Tesla's plant in Shanghai, it would have lost a major manufacturer and big part of China current position in EV. Tesla exports to Europe from China. Tesla also uses Chinese parts and thus globalizing China's EV eco-system at the same time the West is trying to isolate China.
 

GiantPanda

Junior Member
Registered Member
oh and the cope and mental masturbation that you spew! Maybe China uses more electricity because they are less efficient?

Yes, this is a very stupid assumption. If anything, China has a far more modern and efficient electrical grid and manufacturing sector. Older infrastructure and system are torn down and rebuilt to modern standards rapidly in China whether it is a public road or private factory.

This kind of growth in electricity demand comes from manufacturing 30M cars along with practicularly everything else in the modern world. Any other explanation could best be described as simple stupidity or willful ignorance.IMG_1803.jpeg
 

GiantPanda

Junior Member
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Seems like the STEM grads aren't having unemployment problems.
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Yes, and not just STEM as I posted earlier this youth "unemployment" will clear itself out as attitudes change. More college graduates are going into an economy in China that is being digitized and automated faster than any other in the world. They'll be needed in this world where brains are an asset. All it takes is a few months of sitting around and seeing things (including rising salaries in manufacturing) flying past you to dis-abuse any notion that only "office work" is acceptable.
 

Serb

Junior Member
Registered Member
Also, I would add that they can afford to wait for because this is post one-child policy era generation. They can easily be temporarily supported and live with their elders until they manage to adapt to the new labor market environments.

Also, on the topic of youth employment, what is interesting is that China finally changed its counting method to the international standard.

The previous methodology also counted college students looking for part-time jobs as unemployed for some reason. The new one excludes them from the denominator (2/5 cut). It is still getting higher due to all the reasons previously mentioned in this thread, but not to that extent.



 

abenomics12345

Junior Member
Registered Member
What party leaders say and what they actually think are not always the same, in fact they very often are not.
The central government has given out statement after statement about its desire for stability in the real estate market, and yet has done nothing to increase the ability of developers to roll over their massive debt piles despite having more than enough capability to do so.
Of course the premier is going to claim a desire for stability in valuations, but whether he actually means that should be measured by what MOF and the PBOC do about it. If they do nothing, then chances are he doesn't.

RRR cut of 50bps overnight.

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C-SOEs senior management will now have 'market capitalization/value' as part of their KPIs.

The narrative you espouse sounds smart until you actually track what they are doing. The correct take from this should be: the central government has pushed out one policy after another and yet fundamentals have not improved - it's not that they don't care but that they don't have capacity to influence change.
 

GiantPanda

Junior Member
Registered Member
RRR cut of 50bps overnight.

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C-SOEs senior management will now have 'market capitalization/value' as part of their KPIs.

The narrative you espouse sounds smart until you actually track what they are doing. The correct take from this should be: the central government has pushed out one policy after another and yet fundamentals have not improved - it's not that they don't care but that they don't have capacity to influence change.

BULL MANURE.

US printed out $12T of quantitative easing to fix post-Lehman Bros. It handed out free cash at the tune of $4T for COVID.

China can't do better than a measily $278B stock QE if it wanted to? Nope, China doesn't want to because it is not existential.
 
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