Chinese Economics Thread

[gelgoog]

GDP is bigger than in USA but maybe there is less efficiency, like more electricity is used in older semi technology rather than 2-4 nm which doesn't lead to productivity gains, etc.

China's infrastructure was built much more recently than that in the US. So it should be more efficient not less. I guess you never visited the US. They keep using age old infrastructure even past its obsolescence. Heck, the subway in New York still hasn't completely switched to modern automated signaling. That is just one example. The US are early adopters of a lot of technology. And they don't replace things for as long as they can. This means you end up with a lot of malfunctioning (bleeding edge) or broken (legacy) infrastructure.

China's heavier use of electrified public transportation and electric cars might increase electricity consumption. But this should lead to lower energy consumption overall compared with the much less efficient combustion engine transportation used in the US. For example the electric vehicles used in China can use regenerative braking. And the combustion engine vehicles used in the US don't do this.

Also, China doesn't have the suburbia you see in the US which is the major reason for US energetic inefficiency. The US is probably the most energy wasteful society in the world. They also like to put air conditioning or heating in all buildings, but they don't even bother properly insulating them.

 

[BrokeGambler]

Yes, that's correct. I haven't been to US and this is the last country I would visit. It's enough for me living in the EU. As I;ve read this I remember being told by friends about the wooden electric poles there and the subway and so on. But as I said, I also think China GDP is bigger but their recent economic data shows contraction, disinflation, etc. So here I follow data releases

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

and they are basically negative. It's not only about the stock and property market.

 

[lube]

Thanks for the information, I didn't know that. Just wanted to say there are many reasons for high electricity usage besides GDP increase which of course doesn't mean that China GDP is not bigger. I think it is and there are many overprices services in the West and inefficient funds. But if the Chinese financial situation gets out of control the big GDP ain't be for long. And all the macro can change in a moment if the political stability is destroyed and I don't think that everyone is that calm and optimistic in China as in this forum. This explains the situation well (using the same site cause I saw they placed an updated article on China since my last quote)

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Zerohedge is an equal opportunity doomer site. Attracts a specific kind of crowd.
They've written a lot of things about the US and other countries collapsing 100 times over, but those premature predictions don't seem to have dented their credibility regarding China?

 

[GiantPanda]

How dying economies in the past rose in basically three years to dominate exports in a global pillar industry like autos?

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

 

[tamsen_ikard]

How dying economies in the past rose in basically three years to dominate exports in a global pillar industry like autos?

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

With articles like this in many western media outlets, the public is slowly being convinced to try to sanction, tariff and degrade Chinese EV export to the world and the west more specifically. I think its almost certain that Chinese Cars will not be allowed into US at all, most likely be sanctioned, tariffed out of the market by EU in the future as well.

China doesn't have an equal response to this. All the US and EU cars are already losing market share in China, moreover, those cars also made in China so not much contribution by EU or US economy there. So, China probably cannot or will not ban these cars.

China's retaliation will most likely come from agriculture and luxury goods market of EU and US.

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

With articles like this in many western media outlets, the public is slowly being convinced to try to sanction, tariff and degrade Chinese EV export to the world and the west more specifically. I think its almost certain that Chinese Cars will not be allowed into US at all, most likely be sanctioned, tariffed out of the market by EU in the future as well.

China doesn't have an equal response to this. All the US and EU cars are already losing market share in China, moreover, those cars also made in China so not much contribution by EU or US economy there. So, China probably cannot or will not ban these cars.

China's retaliation will most likely come from agriculture and luxury goods market of EU and US.

"I'd like to sanction you but growing cabbages is your only economic activity" is China's Civ winning condition.

 

[henrik]

Financial sector isn’t just cosplaying wolf of Wall Street or Charlie sheen, it’s also insurance ~ and that’s an area China can and should muscle London out of the way, especially Lloyd’s when it comes to insurance pricing, for their part in the Opium wars and slavery.
finance is also wealth and asset management for the Chinese middle aged and soon to be retirees who don’t just want to rely on the Chinese pension and in fact, wealth management could alleviate government budgets when it comes to pensions. In fact, I have high confidence that Chinese finance will be much more principled and adept at wealth building than say Jewish finance which relies on abusing its workers ahem KPMG, Goldman Sachs, Ernst & Young etc

The big guy does not how to run the financial markets. Just look at the Hong Kong stock market lousy performance. The big guy managed to destroy its own financial centers, instead of empowering them.

 

[horse]

With articles like this in many western media outlets, the public is slowly being convinced to try to sanction, tariff and degrade Chinese EV export to the world and the west more specifically. I think its almost certain that Chinese Cars will not be allowed into US at all, most likely be sanctioned, tariffed out of the market by EU in the future as well.

China doesn't have an equal response to this. All the US and EU cars are already losing market share in China, moreover, those cars also made in China so not much contribution by EU or US economy there. So, China probably cannot or will not ban these cars.

China's retaliation will most likely come from agriculture and luxury goods market of EU and US.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

They already thought of that.

 

[tphuang]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1749980089045917912

Here, I looked at the change in Petrochem industry. You may have noticed all the new petrochem refineries coming online in China recently + new projects announced with Saudis. This is causing a fundamental change where Chinese refineries increasingly supply domestic industries while Europeans and some Asians (like Japan & Korea) loose out their exports to China

 

[zgx09t]

ell, strange enough CCP seems not taking into account the experts' opinion that stocks don't matter much but rather western likes

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

and now in panic mode without any coordination with yesterday PBOC leaving-prime-rates-unchanged-descision is weighing on $278 bln rescue plan. Which of course is too little too late and will be probably served with more futile attempts to restrict short selling and more purges, aka corruption cases. I suppose this is irrelevant for the majority here who neither own stocks nor real estates but obviously not for all Chinese and above all not for CCP. And GDP is bigger than in USA but maybe there is less efficiency, like more electricity is used in older semi technology rather than 2-4 nm which doesn't lead to productivity gains, etc.

Check out who is current PBoC governor is and what's his history. Him sitting in that hot seat carries a lot of meaning, and "panic mode without any coordination" is not the correct way to describe it. Quick and well coordinated response through highly responsive and efficient organization structure would be closer to the truth.
This is more or less another ground hog day of 2015-16, when China spent 3T RMB, this time only 2T planned, though Central Huijin would actually spend that much is to be seen, but if they bought some, they bought them cheap for sure. That's enough to turn it around within a day.
PBoC is not going to change rates while high Fed rates are in place. Are you stupid?