Chinese Economics Thread

[Arij Javaid]

RMB has weakened 11% vs USD within these 1.5 years. Do the math.

This has little to no impact on their actual economy. RMB has kept pace with currencies other than USD. In that respect, USD is the outlier, not RMB. RMB will strengthen when the Fed cuts rates. This will likely happen sometime in the middle of the year (2024).

When this happens, it will also have little to no effect on their actual economy. This is why nominal GDP comparisons are pointless.

They only matter for countries with next to no domestic consumption. No country of geopolitical significance is like that; pretty much only tax-havens or semi-colonies. No one cares about those.

Doesn't yuan strengthening or weakening has an impact on exports?

 

[Arij Javaid]

Yes, unless 2 areas use the same currencies, you need to look at the relative rate of inflation in each area first before you can compare.

The gdp difference between China and US have been fairly constant since covid19, China isn't making big steps ahead anymore due to slowed growth, but US is also not catching up. Nevertheless, the gap is slowly being widened.

China's nominal GDP from 2019-2021 grew extremely fast as compared to US due to the strengthening of the yuan.

 

[Serb]

Also inflation, depending at which period in 2021 you looked at it, could've increased in the US by 15% by now. And that also goes into the current nominal GDP number for the US.

So you see exactly why the nominal GDP is a completely overrated and mostly useless and braindead level measure for anything that only Westoid clown "experts" look at in the whole world to make them look good without any substance. No reason why should it be brought up.

 

[xypher]

I checked nominal GDP gap between US and China. It has increased to $10 trillion at the end of 2023 as compared to $5 trillion at the end of 2021.

What is the reason for this?? I know yuan weakened against US dollar due to fed interest hikes but will yuan strengthen again.

Because nominal GDP does not account for inflation and exchange rates.

 

[Randomuser]

Also inflation, depending at which period in 2021 you looked at it, could've increased in the US by 15% by now. And that also goes into the current nominal GDP number for the US.

So you see exactly why the nominal GDP is a completely overrated and mostly useless and braindead level measure for anything that only Westoid clown "experts" look at in the whole world to make them look good without any substance. No reason why should it be brought up.

Inflation was so bad that even normies know about it. But inflation must be a good thing coz it helps keep the nominal GDP up somehow. Anything to stick it to China.

 

[Biscuits]

China's nominal GDP from 2019-2021 grew extremely fast as compared to US due to the strengthening of the yuan.

China's nominal GDP is in yuan and only comparable to other entities using at least majority yuan...

So while the country was growing at very high absolute rates, that doesn't have anything with the yuan, because in order to compare the back then Chinese economy with US, you need to convert to a common currency, which would have neutralized any advantage caused by simple currency fluctuations.

 

[Serb]

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I pasted some 2023 information here below not mentioned so far in this thread. Anyways, a more positive assessment than the previous one from earlier this year from this same site.

Also showing how idiotic it is to think Chinese GDP growth can be "faked", when you have literally hundreds different sub-indicators pointing to the same level of growth in the economy.

The added value of China’s tertiary sector (services) recorded the highest growth rate among the three industry segments, up 5.8 percent year-on-year to reach RMB 68.8 trillion (US$9.65 trillion). Meanwhile, the added value of the secondary sector (industry and manufacturing) grew by 4.7 percent and the primary sector (agriculture and raw material extraction) increased by 4.1 percent from 2022.

China’s

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also saw healthy growth in 2023, reaching RMB 39,218 (US$5,451), a real increase of 6.1 percent after accounting for price factors.

Wages accounted for 56.2 percent of disposable income, with overall per capita wage income increasing by 7.1 percent to reach RMB 22,053 (US$3,093). The median per capita disposable income was RMB 33,036, an increase of 5.3 percent year-on-year.

Over the whole of 2023, the

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above the designated size (companies with an annual main business income of over RMB 20 million (US$2.8 million) increased by 4.6 percent year-on-year. In December 2023, industrial added value saw a real increase of 6.8 percent year-on-year.

The added value of the equipment manufacturing industry increased by 6.8 percent year-on-year, 2.2 percentage points faster than the overall industrial added value growth rate. Meanwhile, the added value of the mining industry increased by 2.3 percent year-on-year, the manufacturing industry increased by 5 percent year-on-year, and the electricity, heating, gas, and water production and supply industry increased by 4.3 percent year-on-year.

Renewable energy-related products had a particularly good year, with several product segments, such as solar cells, new energy vehicles, and generator sets (power generation equipment), experiencing double-digit growth:

• The added value of solar cells increased by 54 percent year-on-year,
• The added value of NEVs increased by 30.3 percent year-on-year; and
• The added value of generator sets increased by 28.5 percent year-on-year.

The traditional manufacturing segments of automotive and electronics production continued to maintain strong growth throughout the year, despite a slight deceleration in December.

State-owned enterprises (SOE) and joint-stock enterprises experienced the strongest growth in terms of added value, while private and foreign-invested companies (FIEs) experienced slower growth:

• SOEs increased by 5 percent year-on-year;
• Joint-stock enterprises increased by 5.3 percent year-on-year;
• Foreign, Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan-invested enterprises increased by 1.4 percent year-on-year; and
• Private enterprises increased by 3.1 percent year-on-year.

However, looking at December, we can see that activity among FIEs and private companies picked up at the end of the year:

• The added value of foreign, Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan-invested enterprises increased by 6.9 percent year-on-year;
• The added value of private enterprises increased by 5.4 percent year-on-year.

The annual added value of the service industry increased by 5.8 percent in 2023 from the previous year.

Service sectors that were strongly impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic began to recover in earnest in 2023. The added value of the hospitality and catering industry, for instance, grew 14.5 percent year-on-year thanks to the lifting of COVID-era restrictions and a low base effect from 2022.

The added value of several other core service sectors also experienced rapid growth:

• Information transmission, software, and information technology (IT) services grew 11.9 percent year-on-year;
• Leasing and business services grew 9.3 percent year-on-year;
• Transportation, warehousing, and postal services grew 8 percent year-on-year;
• Financial services grew 6.8 percent year-on-year; and
• Wholesale and retail services increased by 6.2 percent year-on-year.

Between January and November 2023, the operating income of service industry enterprises above the designated size increased by 8.5 percent year-on-year. Among them, the operating income of the culture, sports, and entertainment industry, information transmission, software, and IT services, and leasing and business services increased by 18.9 percent, 12.8 percent, and 12.7 percent respectively.

The foreign trade figures also show that China continues to dominate in certain key export sectors, in particular mechanical and electrical products, as well as new technologies such as NEVs.

Exports of machinery and electronic products accounted accounting for 58.6 percent of the total export value, while exports of labor-intensive products accounted for 17.3 percent.

Within the field of machinery and electronic products, the export of electric passenger cars, lithium-ion batteries, and solar cells reached a combined export value of RMB 1.06 trillion (US$148.7 billion), breaking the trillion-yuan mark for the first time and growing 29.9 percent from 2022. Exports of ships and household appliances also increased by 35.4 percent and 9.9 percent year-on-year respectively.

 

[gelgoog]

Just compare China and the US in terms of hard stats like steel production, concrete production, electricity consumption, STEM graduates, etc. And then tell me the US has the bigger economy.



Electricity consumption is considered to be a good proxy for actual GDP.

 

[sunnymaxi]

Just compare China and the US in terms of hard stats like steel production, concrete production, electricity consumption, STEM graduates, etc. And then tell me the US has the bigger economy.

View attachment 124208

Electricity consumption is considered to be a good proxy for actual GDP.

China's electricity consumption, rose 6.7% YoY in 2023. Power usage reached 9.22 Trillion kilowatt-hours last year, according to the National Energy Administration..

as of 2022, USA generated 4.23 trillion kilowatt-hours. so China generate 218% more electricity as compare to USA ..

 

[Arij Javaid]

So is it fair to say that china's real economy is larger

While US's financial economy is larger