Chinese Economics Thread

henrik

Senior Member
Registered Member
LOL You brought it up. Then you can't support the argument so now it becomes "regardless."

This is fool's mentality. Do something just to do it without understanding why or whether it's needed. You cannot supply any logical reason for why a China of 1B people cannot overtake the US and do better than it is today with 1.4B so you just repeated your defeated broken points, even saying you don't care about the specifics but just want it your way.

So? The US is obsessed with mass shootings too.

Once again, you were already proven wrong. They weren't scared of China's big population 30 years ago and they're not scared of India's today. They're not scared of big populations; they are scared by innovation and quality overtaking theirs.

Congratulations, you said 1 right thing.

Those are different things. A big population, I don't think anyone things that 1B is not big. Maintain? That means 1.4B, and you cannot find any reason why that is needed other than because it's what you want. But a big educated population? China's is growing. More and more educated useful people from massive investment into education and improvement in quality of life, but overall a slight drop because it's China's poorest that are dwindling.

No, rather you need to stop coming up with stupid nonexistant reasons that you can't even explain logically for why China's population MUST be maintained at 1.4B.

The Americans are so scared of large numbers. They know they cannot contain China, even with the help of their European vassals, Five Eyes and even Japan and Korea. Therefore, they are now recruiting a billion Indians, forming the new Indo-Pacific initiative. The US wants to balance large number with larger number. It is even more urgent for China to counter balance that move.
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
The Americans are so scared of large numbers.
No, they're just scared of China, modern China, not older China, not India, not numbers, just modern China.
They know they cannot contain China, even with the help of their European vassals, Five Eyes and even Japan and Korea. Therefore, they are now recruiting a billion Indians, forming the new Indo-Pacific initiative. The US wants to balance large number with larger number.
No one has ever said that except in your imagination. The US launches tech war, trade war, actual war, but not human number war. The last one is only in your mind.
It is even more urgent for China to counter balance that move.
It's not going to happen. It is the reality. China is overtaking the US in tech and in the economy; it is happening. But in a modern China, people will not play your stupid headcount game. China's TRF is not going to shoot up and people will not be having kids like Indians or Africans to counter an imaginary population war, but China will continue to move faster than the US and all its vassals combined. It has been happening for the last 20 years. These two truths combine to prove your imagination wrong.
 

ansy1968

Brigadier
Registered Member
It's not going to happen. It is the reality. China is overtaking the US in tech and in the economy; it is happening. But in a modern China, people will not play your stupid headcount game. China's TRF is not going to shoot up and people will not be having kids like Indians or Africans to counter an imaginary population war, but China will continue to move faster than the US and all its vassals combined. It has been happening for the last 20 years. These two truths combine to prove your imagination wrong.
The ironic thing is the Collective West accuse China of being a brutal authoritarian regime and planning to export their kind of ideology, BUT in reality the Chinese democratized the Global South by empowering them, a perfect example is the availability of cheap Smartphone and consumer product, it enable the citizen of the Global South to enjoy the benefit and same quality of life as the Collective West.
 

Randomuser

Junior Member
Registered Member
Why does the China and HK stock market suck so much for the past year?

I'm hearing rumours its a coordinated attack that western investors are trying to sell all their holdings in a short period of time to crash the market. Or the government is forcing them to sell. But the thing is western institutions aren't the only ones with money now. Someone else will buy. If the market doesn't drop much in the future, they would have sold at the bottom. Good riddance to them if thats the case.

Maybe this is one of the reasons Korea and Japan are dogs to the USA. Its not just the military. Samsung and whatever have investors like Blackrock holding their leash. If they decide to upset Uncle Sam, let just say Samsung is going to be in a world of hurt. Financial control is another thing to consider. America ultimately runs on debt. Even if they help build you up, they're going to ask for repayment with high interest.
 
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azn_cyniq

Junior Member
Registered Member
Why does the China and HK stock market suck so much for the past year?

I'm hearing rumours its a coordinated attack that western investors are trying to sell all their holdings in a short period of time to crash the market. Or the government is forcing them to sell. But the thing is western institutions aren't the only ones with money now. Someone else will buy. If the market doesn't drop much in the future, they would have sold at the bottom. Good riddance to them if thats the case.

Maybe this is one of the reasons Korea and Japan are dogs to the USA. Its not just the military. Samsung and whatever have investors like Blackrock holding their leash. If they decide to upset Uncle Sam, let just say Samsung is going to be in a world of hurt. Financial control is another thing to consider. America ultimately runs on debt. Even if they help build you up, they're going to ask for repayment with high interest.
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Foreigners own 69% of Samsung's preferred stocks.

Korea and Japan are doing better than Taiwan though. At one point, foreigners owned 79.7% of TSMC, but now they "only" own 72.4%.

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AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
So, your argument about world's carrying capacity is wrong. The world will continue to produce the same level of natural resources. But there will be more people trying to consume it. The previous rich countries will be forced to consume less. The end result is both US and China will have equal GDP per capita and consume the same level of natural resources from the world.

That is not accurate.

We've already discussed how the price of electricity from [wind/solar + battery] will be lower than using today's fossil fuels.

Combined with expected improvements in Hydrogen electrolysers, it means green hydrogen will be cheaper than currently hydrogen production which is produced from fossil fuels. This will directly impact industrial processes which use hydrogen, such as in steelmaking and ammonia fertiliser. That will translate into cheaper prices and/or increased food production.

We also see improvements in industrial protein production in bioreactors. The feedstock materials are plant material or even methanol produced from coal for example.

So energy and food should be cheaper and more abundant - at least if you have access to the Chinese supply chain.

---

Now, you could argue that minerals and metals are a fixed supply, but that's not really true.

What matters is that when the price goes up, the supply that can be economically extracted increases. And if not, it spurs the development of alternatives.

Plus remember that when you have robots and drastically lower energy prices, it means the cost of extracting minerals/metals decreases as well.

---

Taking the trend to its logical conclusion, you can see a situation where electricity is at almost zero cost (less than 1cent/Kwh) in 5 years time.
That means the cost of building and operating robots approaches zero.
You've got essentially unlimited robots fuelled by unlimited energy, which can do mineral/metal extraction.

---

But for this scenario to become widespread is probably still some decades away.
In the meantime, we'll likely see China leading on the energy/robotics front.
This should mean Chinese productivity (and therefore wages) being higher than the USA.
There may also be temporary global shortages of minerals/metals during this technology transition
 
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tokenanalyst

Brigadier
Registered Member
Regardless, of how many people the US and their vassals have combined together. China still needs to grow its population, for its own good. We don't even need to care about their population as long as we have more people. The US has always been obsessed about large numbers. They were scared about China's big population. Now they are even more scared about a big motivated and highly education Chinese population. We need to maintain our big and educated population, rather than coming up with stupid excuses of having a smaller population.
I dont think is possible to have both, you have to decide "big or educated".
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What China can do to maintain a steady population is no following the West in their race to bottom with central banks hyperinflating asset prices that make everyone poorer. Cheap cheap cheap. Cheap housing, cheap education, cheap food, cheap consumer goods, cheap daycare relative to salaries.
 

BrokeGambler

New Member
Registered Member
I'm hearing rumours its a coordinated attack that western investors are trying to sell all their holdings in a short period of time to crash the market.
Yes, all investors are keen to sell at 50% or more loss for what exactly reason?
Or the government is forcing them to sell. But the thing is western institutions aren't the only ones with money now. Someone else will buy. If the market doesn't drop much in the future, they would have sold at the bottom. Good riddance to them if thats the case.
Yep, good riddance. No one from the west will have investments in China. And let's see what happens when China invades Taiwan ..
Maybe this is one of the reasons Korea and Japan are dogs to the USA. Its not just the military. Samsung and whatever have investors like Blackrock holding their leash. If they decide to upset Uncle Sam, let just say Samsung is going to be in a world of hurt.
or when they simply will upset uncle Sam -> China will be left holding the bag with how many billions of treasuries they have? And all these billions will be moved in Taiwan military/reconstruction accounts. And as a contra measure China will have zero collateral to seize from the West. Nice plan indeed :)
 

Biscuits

Major
Registered Member
Yes, all investors are keen to sell at 50% or more loss for what exactly reason?

Yep, good riddance. No one from the west will have investments in China. And let's see what happens when China invades Taiwan ..

or when they simply will upset uncle Sam -> China will be left holding the bag with how many billions of treasuries they have? And all these billions will be moved in Taiwan military/reconstruction accounts. And as a contra measure China will have zero collateral to seize from the West. Nice plan indeed :)
You are incoherent, in the first place, how can China even physically manage to "invade" inside itself??

Whatever the west says on paper, they still have huge collaterals in China, which of course would be seized if they commit aggression against China first. But it's not like China relies on that to fund its defenses... Not even close.
 
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