Chinese Economics Thread

Phead128

Captain
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
This is where you are wrong. I also discussed this in another thread recently. This notion that world cannot sustain US and China having the same GDP per capita is based on a flawed assumption that GDP per capita can only go up. It can also come down.

The main reason behind US high GDP per capita is its high tech dominance. Its dominant in industries such as software, internet services, biotech, aerospace. This is the basis of the all the high salaried engineer jobs in the US. Without those jobs, what will happen to US GDP per capita? It will crash down.

China is developing its industry in all of these sectors. Every sector where the west is dominant is under threat of current or future Chinese competion. Once China replaces western products and software in its own borders, it will start exporting these to the outside world.

With Chinese lower cost of living and hard working 996 culture, its inevitable that they will take away market share from the US and western countries in all those high tech fields. Once that happens, Chinese GDP per capita will go up and US GDP per capita will go down, therefore closing the gap.

You have another flawed assumption about world's resources. Resources in this world maybe fixed, but there is no rule that only the US can buy those resources. As China gets richer, it will bid higher and higher prices for those resources. US will be forced to consume less and less and China will be taking away more of the resource share. In the end, we will have resource consumption equality between US and China.

There is no guarantee that 80K dollars will buy the same amount of resources and comfort in the future that it does now. The more China and other developing countries develop, they will demand those same resources and the prices of those resources will rise significantly. This will cause aj reduction in standard of living in rich countries like US and Europe.

The key to prosperity and comfortable living is money, and the key to money is strong industrial power. China is gaining both. Moreover, the world is moving from resource consumption inequality to equality. This will have catastrophic effect on US standard of living in the future.
The technology sector only represents 9% of US GDP,
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biotech less than 1.5%
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, aerospace less than 2%
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. In total, software/IT, biotech, aerospace constitutes less than 13% of US GDP, so you are wrong that is why US GDP per capita is high for a sectors that is not representative of broader US economy.

In contrast, private consumption as defined by private spending on goods/services/equipment constitute 70% of the US GDP
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.

So 13% vs 70% of GDP, the numbers don't lie. There is no way 1.4 billion Chinese can emulate the wasteful private consumption habits of US consumers. It's literally unsustainable from a CO2 emissions perspective.
 

Serb

Junior Member
Registered Member
The main reason behind US high GDP per capita is its high tech dominance.


No, the main reasons are good currency internalization, money printing press, public spending, public and private debt, and the service sectors of various kinds.

The US is far behind China in high-tech (judging by relevant data). The entire manufacturing sector is just 11% of their GDP.

Do you even know what is "high-tech", or technology at all? That means the production of something, not some abstract retarded concept that you have in mind.

They can import however researchers they want (because they are pretty dumb on their own objectively), but they don't have the industrial capacity to move from those theoretical stages to actual production stages nowadays because they lack industry.

You can find individual examples like the aerospace industry, but that's an outlier, not the norm.

The US alone has around 10 times less high-tech exports globally than China + HK. The entire Collective West is around China's level.

Similarly, China is around the level of the entire West combined if we look at the high-quality patent yearly grants in the high-tech sectors.

And even in science, China has more high-impact research publications, more universities ranked in the top places, better domestic education by various parameters, than the US, etc.

The only reason that they have such a high GDP per capita is because they can literally print money out of thin air like the rest of the world can't, but not for too long.

The crux of the US current standards of living (not the quality of living, they have a pretty shit quality of living) is relying on old glory, military power, old, accumulated military hardware, luck, fate, historically being in the right place at the right time, etc.

The top 1% and top 10% make the most money, and the bottom 50% also have net worths less than 15k for example.

So, even if look at the standards of living only, and exclude quality of living, even then that GDP per capita number is highly deceptive because it's not well distributed.


In the third quarter of 2023, 66.6 percent of the total wealth in the United States was owned by the top 10 percent of earners. In comparison, the lowest 50 percent of earners only owned 2.6 percent of the total wealth.

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ZeEa5KPul

Colonel
Registered Member
The fundamental flaw behind this assumption is that the world does not have enough resources for 1.4 billion Chinese consumer habits to match American consumer habits to achieve the same/equal GDP per capita levels. China cannot achieve $80K per capita with 1.4 billion people because there isn't enough resources on earth for 4X more US consumerism. 92% of American household has a car, with average of 1.9 cars per household. Can you imagine 1 billion cars in China? The roads would collapse with permanent traffic. The earth cannot sustain an additional 10 Billion tons of CO2 emissions annually by China to achieve the same Per Capita GDP, without irreversible global warming.

So in summary, 1.4 billion people cannot achieve $80K GDP per capita because earth cannot sustain 4X more US consumerism, CO2 emissions, and resource use. The premise that 4X GDP = 4X power is based on a fundamentally flawed assumption, not even touching that population does not linearly scale 1:1 with GDP size. Smaller countries tend to have higher GDP per capita in general too.
This is a deeply flawed argument. Of course there aren't enough resources to consume the way the US is consuming, i.e., by burning fossil fuels and generating colossal waste, but there's more than enough sunlight, wind, and fissile material to make China's grid have zero reliance on fossil fuels. Chinese consumption can rise higher than Americans' provided there's the technology to make it clean, which there already is.
Regardless, of how many people the US and their vassals have combined together. China still needs to grow its population, for its own good. We don't even need to care about their population as long as we have more people. The US has always been obsessed about large numbers. They were scared about China's big population. Now they are even more scared about a big motivated and highly education Chinese population. We need to maintain our big and educated population, rather than coming up with stupid excuses of having a smaller population.
Give an argument backed up by numbers as to why. Stop posting feels.
 

tamsen_ikard

Junior Member
Registered Member
The technology sector only represents 9% of US GDP.
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biotech less than 1.5%
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
, aerospace less than 2%
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. In total, software/IT, biotech, aerospace constitutes less than 13% of US GDP, so you are wrong that is why US GDP per capita is high for a sectors that is not representative of broader US economy.

In contrast, private consumption as defined by private spending on goods/services/equipment constitute 70% of the US GDP
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.

So 13% vs 70% of GDP, the numbers don't lie.

GDP is a collaborative measure of economic activity, encompassing all economic activities within a country. Every economy will have basic needs for things like transportation, housing, and shopping for groceries and other items. These are the activities all people will need, regardless of where they live. So, of course, sectors like retail, transportation, real estate will have a much bigger share of the economy. This is true for every country, whether it's a poor country like India or a rich country like the US.

But what makes a country a rich country and what makes a country poor? The difference comes from the primary industries each country has and the main products and services they export to the outside world. What do they do to make money from exporting to the outside world? That's what gives a country the money needed to import products and maintain the standard of living. The people involved in these industries form the main breadwinner of the country, so to speak.

For a country like the US, the main breadwinner of their economy is the high-tech sector. The main breadwinners are the engineers and scientists. So, what happens if they lose their jobs? They don't consume as much as before. They don't buy goods and houses. Which then also reduces other dependent sectors such as retail, real estate, and so on. Then, people working in those sectors also start to lose their jobs or get a cut in salaries. Then, these second group of people consume less. This becomes a cycle that reduces GDP per capita for the whole economy.

So, as a percentage, the high-tech sector may seem like a small contributor to the US economy. But they are the source of US prosperity; all the consumption comes from the money earned from it.

Similarly, if China can develop its own primary sector from low-end manufacturing to the high-tech sector, it will automatically raise people's income and subsequently their ability to consume more goods and services. Thus, those other dependent sectors such as retail, real estate, and others will also expand, boosting GDP growth even further.


There is no way 1.4 billion Chinese can emulate the wasteful private consumption habits of US consumers. There is no way 2 cars per household can exist in China, and the environment impact would be unsustainable in terms of CO2 emissions.

I think you did not understand my previous post. I mentioned how every resource will become more expensive in the future due to Chinese competition, and the US will not be able to sustain its current level of consumption. That means being forced to keep only one car instead of two, driving less due to high oil or energy prices.

In terms of CO2 emissions, there is no way China will consume less just to save the environment, even if they have more money, while rich countries maintain their level of emissions. There will be equality in this aspect as well.

You need to understand what the rise of China means; it means equality between the West and China in every way, whether it's money, consumption, CO2 emissions, how much traveling they do, or how much they consume. There will be equality in every aspect.

That equality can be achieved in two ways: China will take a larger share of the resources, and the West will have to reduce its consumption due to higher prices or lower income.
 

Serb

Junior Member
Registered Member

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Hehe, how dare these Chinese people not go into colossal bankruptcy debt levels like our people and be financially broke and work 2 jobs.

Why do they keep prudently all this money in savings and deposits with their traditional higher interest rates, instead of going into debt/broke for excessive stupid purchases?

And they should also just blindly invest everything into the stock market to keep their oligarchs and other majority asset-holders richer and richer as we do.

Why do they keep this money in the state-controlled banks so that it can be given in the form of active loans and finance their high-tech sectors of the future, to boost actual tangible production, which will also keep increasing their real wages over time, not just the net worths of the rich.

They should just invest all that capital in passive, useless, virtual, financial "assets" that the rich own, so they can appreciate permanently, like we "geniuses" in the West do. These Western "economists" are outside of the real world economy, in a bubble, but in for a very rude awakening.
 
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AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
I think you did not understand my previous post. I mentioned how every resource will become more expensive in the future due to Chinese competition, and the US will not be able to sustain its current level of consumption. That means being forced to keep only one car instead of two, driving less due to high oil or energy prices.

This is a fundamental mis-reading, given what we are seeing with improvements in energy technology.

86% of all economic growth since the 1st Industrial Revolution has been due to improvements in aggregate energy efficiency - essentially how we generate energy and then turn it into a useful good or service aka technology. As per Rifkind's Third Industrial Revolution book.

What we are seeing globally is that electricity from solar or wind is cheaper than fossil fuels, in many cases, drastically cheaper.
However, you can't control when the wind blows or the sun shines.

But now, we also see projections that from next year, [solar/wind electricity + battery storage] will be cheaper than coal electricity in China.
Yet we are still at the beginnings of large-scale battery technology deployment, so costs should continue to go down significantly for years to come.

If you look at how much wind or solar generation is theoretically available, we can see that there is no limit to how much cheap electricity we can generate. The marginal cost of electricity during the daytime will drop to near-zero, which is what we see in many places now.

---

We can also see that electric vehicles have a lower total cost of ownership than combustion-engine vehicles. So electric vehicles should take over.
 

Serb

Junior Member
Registered Member
People keep their money in savings accounts in banks, and the banks then loan the money to build factories, or houses. These so called experts are really retarded. Keeping your money in the bank isn't the same as putting it in the mattress.


Keeping money in the bank in China at this rate assures long-term economic growth/stability. Short-term vs long-term type argument.

You could quickly boost your GDP up by a notch if those savings started being spent on consumption more. But what after that wave slows down?

Whereas, by assuring continuous real productivity and technological expansion in the long run (with the financing of your real economy with those savings provided) it would grow more in total over time and run even nearly indefinitely in theory (innovations, exports, efficiency-bigger margins, etc).

And you will also have a better structure of the economy for national security in this way, more in manufacturing and technology, and less in services.

Like in everything, Westerners think short-term while Chinese think long-term. I think this is intelligence and civilizational difference.

Maybe political differences as well, Western politicians know they will be in office for around 4 years, so they want quick results as opposed to "best" results, for their country, during their time in office, and the media/analysts follow them like sheep.

Whereas in China there is no such problem, so you can plan everything for decades in advance, that's why they are winning the game.

Also, even if they wanted, the Western political/economic systems are set so inefficiently that they couldn't possibly even have state banks under control like that.

However, if they can't do it, then those stupid "economists" like this one above shouldn't just spew bullshit and talk in absolutistic terms.
 
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AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General
It's interesting how the people who think they know what's best for China are also anti-China. It's not surprising that besides just blind hatred for the Chinese, those that bother to find an excuse to give on why, it always revolves around how they think the Chinese are arrogant only thinking about themselves and no one else. Who doesn't do that? Do they think the West cares about others before themselves?

One recent piece of bull in the news was how China risks a trade war with the world because it's gearing the Chinese economy into high-end from low-end manufacturing. No, the only ones who'll be affected will be the West not the world. And after they were taunting how Chinese economy was collapsing mainly due to how China is losing low-end manufacturing jobs to Vietnam and India... The West has to frame "the world" will be upset because it's really just them and no one else in the world cares if they lose those jobs. Or how about if China, again, doesn't use all its geopolitical capital on solving a problem the West recognizes, "the world" will be angry at China for this... What was the West talking about? The Houthi attacks in the Red Sea. They emphasized how the Global South will blame China if it doesn't do anything to stop it. Who's the primary benefactor of trade through the Red Sea? Europe. The vast majority of China's trade with the Global South doesn't travel through the Red Sea. According to Western propaganda, the Houthis are avoiding attacking "Chinese" ships meaning any Chinese products going to Europe have nothing to worry about. It's all China's fault and not the Western supported genocide in Gaza. Yeah it's the world and not just them alone that will be affected...

Japan and South Korea have worse demographic problems than China and yet they only "care" about China and not their declared allies...? Is it because they care...?


Like they're going to tell the Chinese the secrets to being innovative when they fear Chinese innovation? Every piece of advice the West gives to everyone else serves the West's interests first. Westerners are angry because China doesn't easily allow for immigration as much as they do. The West only cares because they can't handle the mass amounts of refugees their foreign policies cause as result. They even taunt how no one wants to live in China and yet they're going to get angry at China for not allowing immigration from the human diasporas they inflict upon the world. The Republicans are accusing China of being a racist country because they don't allow immigration. Yeah like Republicans care for immigrants... They want China to let in immigrants because they want the problems they see with immigration being China's problem and they're trying to spin how that help China's demographic problems.

It's not good advice when Westerners give it.
 

pbd456

Junior Member
Registered Member
The technology sector only represents 9% of US GDP,
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
biotech less than 1.5%
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
, aerospace less than 2%
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
. In total, software/IT, biotech, aerospace constitutes less than 13% of US GDP, so you are wrong that is why US GDP per capita is high for a sectors that is not representative of broader US economy.

In contrast, private consumption as defined by private spending on goods/services/equipment constitute 70% of the US GDP
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
.

So 13% vs 70% of GDP, the numbers don't lie. There is no way 1.4 billion Chinese can emulate the wasteful private consumption habits of US consumers. It's literally unsustainable from a CO2 emissions perspective.
How does it finance the private consumption if it does not have money to pay for import?
 
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