Chinese Economics Thread

[tamsen_ikard]

Don't forget that university grads will continue to increase untill 2050 even under this demographics trend.

Let's even say that China will have 25% less population in 30 years (or whatever else, this can't be known), but the remaining population will be 300% more productive (meaning in simple terms: 1 person at that time will have economic output like 3 people of today). Then China is still in a really big net positive for their economy (real GDP, manufacturing, etc). That's what stupid average Western "expert" won't tell you about ever.

A declining population is a death spiral that will eventually go to zero. That's not good in any circumstances. So, China needs to stop the population decline. Its about national survival. It needs to have birth rate above 2, which is the replacement level.

Right now, ofcourse there is no appetite in China for extreme pro-Birth policies. But I think its inevitable in the future if these trends continue. China will have to impose heavy carrot and stick approach to raise birth rates in the future.

Right now, the problem is lack of jobs for the young educated people. So, that means China needs to ensure development of industries that can support the employment of high educated people who are coming out every year. Cause if they don't get jobs in China, they will be desperate to move abroad or they will spark a revolution in China out of frustration.

 

[resistance]

A declining population is a death spiral that will eventually go to zero. That's not good in any circumstances. So, China needs to stop the population decline. Its about national survival. It needs to have birth rate above 2, which is the replacement level.

Right now, ofcourse there is no appetite in China for extreme pro-Birth policies. But I think its inevitable in the future if these trends continue. China will have to impose heavy carrot and stick approach to raise birth rates in the future.

Right now, the problem is lack of jobs for the young educated people. So, that means China needs to ensure development of industries that can support the employment of high educated people who are coming out every year. Cause if they don't get jobs in China, they will be desperate to move abroad or they will spark a revolution in China out of frustration.

Decline population will be a bad things if there's no massive disruption from AI and automation. Job will be far less which will be bad Idea not to downsizing population.

The thing is china need to make sure that stem and science grads will continue to increase, not overall population.

China demographics now is like Korea during asian financial crisis

 

[tamsen_ikard]

Decline population will be a bad things if there's no massive disruption from AI and automation. Job will be far less which will be bad Idea not to downsizing population.

The thing is china need to make sure that stem and science grads will continue to increase, not overall population.

China demographics now is like Korea during asian financial crisis

I see this argument from people who want to justify and somehow try to portray population decline as some kind of a good thing. Inability to solve a problem does not mean you will find excuses to justify why that problem is a good thing.

Just cause AI and automation will take away some jobs does not mean new jobs will not appear to take its place. People also said the same thing when computerization was starting up, that computers will make people jobless. But guess what, new jobs and new roles came that enhanced people's livelihood that used computers.

Economic development, technological progress is about giving people comfort and easier and more enriching lives. There is no end point to this. So, there will always be roles for people to do that can enhance production or provide services to people. So, there is no specific point in technological progress when there will not be jobs for people to do and AI can do it all. The more economy develps, the more jobs there will be for people to do.

Moreover, you are totally missing the point of why you have an economy and society at all. It is to serve people, to enhance the life of people. So, people are the consumers. Not AI.
So, if there is no population to be the consumer to all this, then what is the point at all? If China keeps losing population on and on, will there be a point when there is no people to consume all the wealth and only AI and Robots will remain?

Solving the population decline will become the absolute necessary problem that will trump all others in the future. It will be more important than even the military. So, sooner or later China will have to raise Birth Rate. Its just a matter of time.

 

[resistance]

I see this argument from people who want to justify and somehow try to portray population decline as some kind of a good thing. Inability to solve a problem does not mean you will find excuses to justify why that problem is a good thing.

Just cause AI and automation will take away some jobs does not mean new jobs will not appear to take its place. People also said the same thing when computerization was starting up, that computers will make people jobless. But guess what, new jobs and new roles came that enhanced people's livelihood that used computers.

Economic development, technological progress is about giving people comfort and easier and more enriching lives. There is no end point to this. So, there will always be roles for people to do that can enhance production or provide services to people. So, there is no specific point in technological progress when there will not be jobs for people to do and AI can do it all. The more economy develps, the more jobs there will be for people to do.

Moreover, you are totally missing the point of why you have an economy and society at all. It is to serve people, to enhance the life of people. So, people are the consumers. Not AI.
So, if there is no population to be the consumer to all this, then what is the point at all? If China keeps losing population on and on, will there be a point when there is no people to consume all the wealth and only AI and Robots will remain?

Solving the population decline will become the absolute necessary problem that will trump all others in the future. It will be more important than even the military. So, sooner or later China will have to raise Birth Rate. Its just a matter of time.

Don't worry about that consumer. As I said that those who has high skill job (with university degree) will consume more than average factory labors.
The automation today is not the same as computer in the past. Most of labor intensive jobs will get automated( at least half of them). The new jobs that will appear will use less people to do.
Those who will make demand and consume will be those with tertiary education which will keep increase until 2050. (See the enrollment rate, still quite low)
After all, when people livelihood improve( from lower pop density) fertility rate will improve. So what china should do is just slow down fertility decline.

 

[tamsen_ikard]

Don't worry about that consumer. As I said that those who has high skill job (with university degree) will consume more than average factory labors.
The automation today is not the same as computer in the past. Most of labor intensive jobs will get automated( at least half of them). The new jobs that will appear will use less people to do.
Those who will make demand and consume will be those with tertiary education which will keep increase until 2050. (See the enrollment rate, still quite low)
After all, when people livelihood improve( from lower pop density) fertility rate will improve. So what china should do is just slow down fertility decline.

Haha you are dead wrong about people having less jobs than before. There will always be jobs that require more adaptibility, finesse, sophistication that an AI can never have. If AI and robotics leads to more prosperity, then it will also lead to people having more money. How will they use this money? For more services that makes their lives easier or induges them. So, more entertainers, more sophisticated service, more prostitutes, more massage providers, the situations are endless. People with money will even hire servants just to make life even easier. AI can never do those things.

When people were poor and just worked in the fields, A job like Sommelier didn't exist, whose only job is to recommend people what wine to drink. But now its a very lucrative job. The more money people have, more types of specialized job will appear, that only humans can do. There will never be less jobs.

 

[Eventine]

Decline population will be a bad things if there's no massive disruption from AI and automation. Job will be far less which will be bad Idea not to downsizing population.

The thing is china need to make sure that stem and science grads will continue to increase, not overall population.

China demographics now is like Korea during asian financial crisis

Do you think AI replacing people favors China? And if so, why? Because I don’t. Automation favors those countries that control the most limited natural resources. That would be the West and Russia due to their long centuries of colonialism. Robot factories are best built where the mining operations are.

It China is to overtake the West it must come from either a demographic victory from having solved the fertility problems no other developed country has solved. Or from a technological victory where China gains a significant technological edge and uses it to dominate the world. Otherwise long term it will be a loss due to the West’s superior hold over global natural resources and better demographics.

The time to win is now, not later.

 

[SDtom]

Do you think AI replacing people favors China? And if so, why?

AI and Robotics can increase China's global competitive in service/product research, development and sales. If China doesn't use those available tools then China will fall behind, out compete by countries that uses them, and, as a result, more Chinese will be unemployed. Robotics, and probably AI too, are being used by highly competitive Chinese manufactures like, CATL, Nio, BYD...etc.

It China is to overtake the West it must come from either a demographic victory from having solved the fertility problems no other developed country has solved. Or from a technological victory where China gains a significant technological edge and uses it to dominate the world. Otherwise long term it will be a loss due to the West’s superior hold over global natural resources and better demographics.

China main plan/objective is not to "overtake" or "dominated" the west/world, it is to be the best it can be. And to do that China needs to use all tools available: AI, Robotics, Super/Quantum-comptures, .. etc.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

Haha you are dead wrong about people having less jobs than before. There will always be jobs that require more adaptibility, finesse, sophistication that an AI can never have. If AI and robotics leads to more prosperity, then it will also lead to people having more money. How will they use this money? For more services that makes their lives easier or induges them. So, more entertainers, more sophisticated service, more prostitutes, more massage providers, the situations are endless. People with money will even hire servants just to make life even easier. AI can never do those things.

When people were poor and just worked in the fields, A job like Sommelier didn't exist, whose only job is to recommend people what wine to drink. But now its a very lucrative job. The more money people have, more types of specialized job will appear, that only humans can do. There will never be less jobs.

Meanwhile, US labor market participation:

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Looks like less jobs to me.

How many sommeliers do you need vs. how many mechanical technician IIs get replaced by welding bots or something?

 

[Serb]

I see this argument from people who want to justify and somehow try to portray population decline as some kind of a good thing. Inability to solve a problem does not mean you will find excuses to justify why that problem is a good thing.

Just cause AI and automation will take away some jobs does not mean new jobs will not appear to take its place. People also said the same thing when computerization was starting up, that computers will make people jobless. But guess what, new jobs and new roles came that enhanced people's livelihood that used computers.

Economic development, technological progress is about giving people comfort and easier and more enriching lives. There is no end point to this. So, there will always be roles for people to do that can enhance production or provide services to people. So, there is no specific point in technological progress when there will not be jobs for people to do and AI can do it all. The more economy develps, the more jobs there will be for people to do.

Moreover, you are totally missing the point of why you have an economy and society at all. It is to serve people, to enhance the life of people. So, people are the consumers. Not AI.
So, if there is no population to be the consumer to all this, then what is the point at all? If China keeps losing population on and on, will there be a point when there is no people to consume all the wealth and only AI and Robots will remain?

Solving the population decline will become the absolute necessary problem that will trump all others in the future. It will be more important than even the military. So, sooner or later China will have to raise Birth Rate. Its just a matter of time.

It's not that the declining birth rates are not a problem, it's just that they are 100 times less of a problem for China than stupid Western MSM and "experts" and youtubers present to their brain-dead sheep populations. Using my previous analogy, let's say China had 30% less population in 30 years than now, but if they had 300% higher productivity of average citizens at that time (due to higher urbanization rate, better and higher education for average citizens, better science, technology, results, climbing industrial value chains, etc, everything that data is showing us that is currently happening), they would still on a huge economic surplus.

That's literally what Japan did, it started stagnating in population size, but then still doubled its GDP due to higher quality workforce improvements and automatization, and then stopped. And I think China can even increase average productivity 3-4 times at this time in 20-30 years before stagnating like Japan. Because they have nearly identical cultures and genetic similarities, average Chinese can also reach the level of productivity of average Japanese today in the future, that's at least 3 times more, plus I think even more due to a better-governing system.

Where are consumers? Well, if someone is 3 times more productive (meaning he earns 3 times more money on average than now), at that time, than he is today, then, of course, that average citizen will also become a bigger consumer individually and consumption would rise overall too, simply he would spend more money. Not to mention that China is not a Mickey Mouse economy like the West where 80% of GDP is domestic consumption in the first place.

Regarding AI, China will benefit the most from AI because of its socialistic and Leninist society (easier control of population and corporations needed for it to work perfectly) when the UBI will have to be rolled over due to the loss of lower-paying jobs (those industries will probably still be in part kept in China and government/machine run due to national security reasons, especially in manufacturing, they are not stupid like the US to destroy any of its manufacturing). AI will also first remove the lower-paying jobs, and as the Chinese have one of the highest intelligence in the world, it won't be disturbed as much, because they could then work on higher-paying jobs including AI-related jobs that would be made.

And I saw that you often compare AI to previous technologies, well you can't do that, because AI is not just another innovation, AI is a new human-like intelligence created, meaning nearly all new jobs it creates, it could do on its own as well (unlike for example what happened in industrial revolutions), except for AI development (science and engineering needed for it) and maintenance and alignment itself. Of course, this depends on the time scale, and AI-development-type jobs will also be easier for them to do due to their intelligence/talent in natural sciences, the highest number of STEM graduates, and the potential for more. From this trajectory, China will become the biggest winner of AI due to having a 10 times Japan-like productive quality population, perfect for the new world, that's all that matters. China is the most fit for a post-AI economy.

 

[Umut]

Hello. I just joined the forum. If depopulation is not going to have a negative impact, why does India have twice the economic size of Korea and is about to surpass Japan? With their superior technologies, these two countries should not have even brought India closer to them.