Chinese Economics Thread

[sunnymaxi]

It's crazy right?
They write articles like this:

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Invoking stuff like Qing dynasty, phrases like "fealty to Xi"

Then you have something like this about Canada

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Which in many ways is mirroring the issues in China (i.e. Real Estate prices and debt)

Granted the 1st article is stated as an opinion piece, but I'd really like to know if Global Times is talking about the impeding economic crisis in Canada and inevitability of collapse of the system due to disloyalty to the leader Justin Trudeau and ignorance of progressive gender policy.

don't know how long these western shills continue to peddle Demographic narrative and property sector. shrinking population and workforce is a giant cope..

read that article. i m posting
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China is on the way to become Juggernaut in Quality Population. will have huge consequence in 21st century.

In tension with a declining birth rate has been China’s rapidly rising college enrollment. At the turn of the century, China produced one million college graduates. This represented 6% of the age cohort which we calculate by dividing graduates by births 24 years prior (the average age at college graduation is 23.7 in China). This has increased dramatically to 11.6 million graduates for the class of 2023, 63% of the age cohort.

Over this time period, college graduates in the workforce increased from low single-digit percentages to 25%. With the working-age population peaking in 2011, upgrading the labor force has become a necessity.

Happily, the investments have been made, and, barring a sudden collapse of the education system, China’s blue-collar workforce will transition to a white-collar one as retiring migrant workers are replaced by their college-educated children. College graduates in China’s workforce should exceed 70% by 2050.

Of note, over 40% of China’s college graduates are STEM majors. This compares to 18% in the US, 35% in Germany, and 26% in the OECD. Given the rapid increase in graduates, these STEM majors have taken China from a standing start to topping science and technology metrics like the Nature Index, the top 1% of cited papers, the top 10% of cited papers and WIPO PCT patents in recent years.

In real-world terms, China’s technically proficient workforce has given it the industrial output of the US and EU combined. Dozens of electric vehicle (EV) companies have emerged from nowhere with product cycles half as long as established car companies.

China has cornered the market on batteries, solar panels and wind turbines. China’s National Space Administration and defense industry have made significant technological leaps with their legions of fresh-faced engineers.

This trend should have another 20 years to run, at which point China’s workforce will have more STEM grads than the rest of the world combined. All of this is more or less written in stone until 2043. The college grads and STEM majors China’s needs by then have already been born..

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[donjasjit]

don't know how long these western shills continue to peddle Demographic narrative and property sector. shrinking population and workforce is a giant cope..

read that article. i m posting
--------------------------------------------------------------------

China is on the way to become Juggernaut in Quality Population. will have huge consequence in 21st century.

In tension with a declining birth rate has been China’s rapidly rising college enrollment. At the turn of the century, China produced one million college graduates. This represented 6% of the age cohort which we calculate by dividing graduates by births 24 years prior (the average age at college graduation is 23.7 in China). This has increased dramatically to 11.6 million graduates for the class of 2023, 63% of the age cohort.

Over this time period, college graduates in the workforce increased from low single-digit percentages to 25%. With the working-age population peaking in 2011, upgrading the labor force has become a necessity.

Happily, the investments have been made, and, barring a sudden collapse of the education system, China’s blue-collar workforce will transition to a white-collar one as retiring migrant workers are replaced by their college-educated children. College graduates in China’s workforce should exceed 70% by 2050.

Of note, over 40% of China’s college graduates are STEM majors. This compares to 18% in the US, 35% in Germany, and 26% in the OECD. Given the rapid increase in graduates, these STEM majors have taken China from a standing start to topping science and technology metrics like the Nature Index, the top 1% of cited papers, the top 10% of cited papers and WIPO PCT patents in recent years.

In real-world terms, China’s technically proficient workforce has given it the industrial output of the US and EU combined. Dozens of electric vehicle (EV) companies have emerged from nowhere with product cycles half as long as established car companies.

China has cornered the market on batteries, solar panels and wind turbines. China’s National Space Administration and defense industry have made significant technological leaps with their legions of fresh-faced engineers.

This trend should have another 20 years to run, at which point China’s workforce will have more STEM grads than the rest of the world combined. All of this is more or less written in stone until 2043. The college grads and STEM majors China’s needs by then have already been born..

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I agree with your viewpoint. I post the an article to support it. In case the following article has been posted before, I am sorry.

I am staggered at the increase in research output of China

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The report shows an acceleration in published research output, which increased five-fold between 2009 and 2021, well outpacing the U.S. and E.U.

This research won't make an impact right now, but 10 years from now it will be felt and it's impact will be enormous. This report suggest a bright future for China's economy.

 

[tamsen_ikard]

One of the best documentaries about China ever!! It was so real and revealing, covering literally all spectrum of China.

This is also by a Russian guy, so you get a very balanced perspective unlike western documentaries.

You see Chinese high tech like EVs, High speed rail to facial recognition, payments and so on.

You also get to see the Chinese slums or Urban villages and how they are dirty and small places for the poor to live. You also see a huge segment on China's fake luxury goods market. They even covered how nobody steals in China.

The punchline comes at the end, he asks another foreigner if China is slowing down and he just keeps laughing. He says, you think this is China slowing down?

A must watch for anyone interested in China.

 

[Stierlitz]

The official NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI for China was down to 50.2 in November 2023 from 50.6 a month earlier. It was the 11th straight month of expansion in the service sector but the softest in the sequence, amid further declines in new orders (47.2 vs 46.7), foreign sales (46.8 vs 49.1), and employment (46.9 vs 46.5). Also, the gauge measuring services activity fell to 49.3, pointing to the first contraction this year. The delivery time index decreased slightly (51.8 vs 52.0). On prices, input cost fell for the second straight month (49.8 vs 49.7); while selling prices dropped the most since June (48.3 vs 48.6). Lastly, sentiment strengthened to a 5-month peak (59.8 vs 58.1).

source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

The official NBS Manufacturing PMI in China edged down to 49.4 in November 2023 from 49.5 in October, missing market forecasts of 49.7, and pointing to the lowest print since June, which highlighted that the economy needs more support from the government amid weak demand and a property downturn. New orders shrank faster (49.4 vs 49.5 in October), with foreign sales falling the most in four months (46.3 vs 46.8), and output expanded the least since July (50.7 vs 50.9), while employment continued to decline (48.1 vs 48.0). Meantime, buying levels fell the most in three months (49.6 vs 49.8). The delivery time was shortened slightly (50.3 vs 50.2). On the cost side, input price inflation eased to a five-month low (50.7 vs 52.6), while output prices dropped for the second consecutive month despite being at a softer rate (48.2 vs 47.7). Finally, business sentiment strengthened to the highest since February (55.8 vs 55.6).

source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

The NBS Composite PMI Output Index in China edged down to 50.4 in November 2023 from 50.7 in the prior month, pointing to the lowest print since December 2022 as factory activity shrank for the second consecutive month while the service sector grew the least in 11 months. The latest figure highlighted that the Chinese economy has struggled to maintain a solid post-pandemic recovery, amid a prolonged property crisis, deflationary risks, and mounting external headwinds. Beijing in recent months has worked to support activity by ramping up bond sales for infrastructure investment but economists said the amount was not significant. Meantime, the central bank since June has launched a raft of measures, including modest interest rate cuts and heavy cash injections.

source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

 

[Maikeru]

A compilation of GDP 2024 real growth forecasts for World, US, China, EU, UK and India:

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Basically China 4-5%, US1-2%

 

[Serb]

don't know how long these western shills continue to peddle Demographic narrative and property sector. shrinking population and workforce is a giant cope..

read that article. i m posting
--------------------------------------------------------------------

China is on the way to become Juggernaut in Quality Population. will have huge consequence in 21st century.

In tension with a declining birth rate has been China’s rapidly rising college enrollment. At the turn of the century, China produced one million college graduates. This represented 6% of the age cohort which we calculate by dividing graduates by births 24 years prior (the average age at college graduation is 23.7 in China). This has increased dramatically to 11.6 million graduates for the class of 2023, 63% of the age cohort.

Over this time period, college graduates in the workforce increased from low single-digit percentages to 25%. With the working-age population peaking in 2011, upgrading the labor force has become a necessity.

Happily, the investments have been made, and, barring a sudden collapse of the education system, China’s blue-collar workforce will transition to a white-collar one as retiring migrant workers are replaced by their college-educated children. College graduates in China’s workforce should exceed 70% by 2050.

Of note, over 40% of China’s college graduates are STEM majors. This compares to 18% in the US, 35% in Germany, and 26% in the OECD. Given the rapid increase in graduates, these STEM majors have taken China from a standing start to topping science and technology metrics like the Nature Index, the top 1% of cited papers, the top 10% of cited papers and WIPO PCT patents in recent years.

In real-world terms, China’s technically proficient workforce has given it the industrial output of the US and EU combined. Dozens of electric vehicle (EV) companies have emerged from nowhere with product cycles half as long as established car companies.

China has cornered the market on batteries, solar panels and wind turbines. China’s National Space Administration and defense industry have made significant technological leaps with their legions of fresh-faced engineers.

This trend should have another 20 years to run, at which point China’s workforce will have more STEM grads than the rest of the world combined. All of this is more or less written in stone until 2043. The college grads and STEM majors China’s needs by then have already been born..

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

In my opinion, the average Chinese citizen, in the future, can be as economically productive as the average Japanese citizen today (same culture and genetic intelligence - highest in the world) if not even more due to China having a better governing system (in my opinion, the best in the world also). But with around 10 times larger population (imagine this future juggernaut hyperpower overlord, that's why the West trembles).

That means that even with a declining population, that could bring China to about 3-4 times its current GDP just by reaching its current "base" population potential and quality peak in about 20-30 years, before starting the stagnation process due to max potential like current Japan.

That is not science fiction, that is literally what data is showing us right now, data is showing enormous growth in urbanization, productivity, value-added, education, and science and technology metrics, every single year in China, including this one as well (alongside future projections). So, all that bullshit about stagnation in China 20-30 years prematurely has no data to support it, that's just wishful thinking from the West.

China has 8 times more people employed in the agricultural sector in relative terms than Japan, and 5 times more still living in rural aras than in Japan, those people are simply 100% untapped potential. Not to mention that even those who are currently in manufacturing and urbanized in China right now, also are nowhere near their peak potential. They are still rapidly moving in higher-tech, higher value-added industrial chains.

 

[Serb]

Let's even say that China will have 25% less population in 30 years (or whatever else, this can't be known), but the remaining population will be 300% more productive (meaning in simple terms: 1 person at that time will have economic output like 3 people of today). Then China is still in a really big net positive for their economy (real GDP, manufacturing, etc). That's what stupid average Western "expert" won't tell you about ever.

 

[supercat]

Let's even say that China will have 25% less population in 30 years (or whatever else, this can't be known), but the remaining population will be 300% more productive (meaning in simple terms: 1 person at that time will have economic output like 3 people of today). Then China is still in a really big net positive for their economy (real GDP, manufacturing, etc). That's what stupid average Western "expert" won't tell you about ever.

That's why all the claims in the Western MSM that China will never overtake the US GDP on a nominal basis is just coping. I have no doubt we will see China's GDP to be at least 2x bigger than the US' on a nominal basis in our life time. Neither demographics nor the fantasized "collapse" of China's property market will prevent this from happening. Talking about China's property market:

China can contain its property market troubles​

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It's a farce to decouple from China.

Shrinking US CapEx makes re-shoring a charade​

China’s growing dominance of global supply chains is the result of chronic US underinvestment in manufacturing

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Don’t be fooled by America’s “new” supply chains​

Despite attempts to diversify, they still lead back to exactly where you would expect​

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How China keeps the cost of healthcare down:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1730587613848015081

China’s Fourth Bulk-Buying Round Cuts Medical Devices Prices by 70%

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[donjasjit]

Let's even say that China will have 25% less population in 30 years (or whatever else, this can't be known), but the remaining population will be 300% more productive (meaning in simple terms: 1 person at that time will have economic output like 3 people of today). Then China is still in a really big net positive for their economy (real GDP, manufacturing, etc). That's what stupid average Western "expert" won't tell you about ever.

I think the western analysts miss an important point. If it becomes clear that a sharp decline in population and rise in elderly is about to happen and that could affect the economy badly, China will take remedial measures, however harsh.

China had after all enforced a 1 child policy to prevent population explosion. If in future, China’s leaders believe that a sharp fall in population is very bad for the economy, they may adopt measures to make people follow a 2 child policy.

Maybe such measures could be harsh but sometimes, a society does not know what is bad if left to its own will.

China has suffered much in past 100 years years to rise so quickly. It is not going to give it all up and commit slow suicide like Japan or Korea, which too are undergoing rapid demographic decline.

The rise of A.I and robotics makes it unlikely that China will ever need to use harsh measures to make sure population decline does not hurt economy. But it has that option, if the country really needs it they would do it.

Western analysts can’t understand this. They see what is happening in Japan, Korea and predict a similar future of dire demographic collapse in China causing economic chaos.

China will do whatever is needed to make sure that doesn’t happen.

 

[resistance]

Let's even say that China will have 25% less population in 30 years (or whatever else, this can't be known), but the remaining population will be 300% more productive (meaning in simple terms: 1 person at that time will have economic output like 3 people of today). Then China is still in a really big net positive for their economy (real GDP, manufacturing, etc). That's what stupid average Western "expert" won't tell you about ever.

Don't forget that university grads will continue to increase untill 2050 even under this demographics trend.