The estimate must be based on a certain basis, such as paying taxes. However, the taxes paid at night markets and street stalls are based on the figures reported by the owners themselves, so the estimates are basically inaccurate.
Chinese Economics Thread
- Thread starter Norfolk
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The size of China's trade surplus implies a low consumption rate, since the trade surplus is the savings rate less the investment rate, and the investment rate is already very high, so the savings rate must be close to 50 percent, which implies a low consumption. Maybe Xi should just send everyone a 10000 yuan check every month? If anything else that would basically guarantee a secure support base for the CPC.
Consumption and consumerism are two different things. Which one China needs is something that would require careful and deliberate thought process.
Excess savings, highly correlated with trade surplus, shows up in PBoC balance sheet. It's time to use PBoC US$ 6 trillions assets to gradually clean up and complete the unfinished housing units, letting Central Huijin prop up both stocks and real estate, and gradually withdraw back once they have a healthy footing. And CIC, one of the largest sovereign funds, needs to refocus on domestic investment, even at a loss. Somewhat a smaller version of 2008 bailout. You can't let the regular Chinese families suffer indefinitely. Not to worry about inflation as China has so much excess capacity. China's banking assets, nearly four times her GDP, compared to US's roughly 70%, may be not willing to help the real estate troubles. So PBoC have to step in as a last resort. That seems to be the way it's going as cleanest of dirty shirts in real estate are being approved to get loans even without collateral. The two underlying problems of shadow banking, even though itself thinning, and LGFV debts, both closely intertwined with real estate troubles, need to be taken care of real quick. Maybe waiting for new laws on these steps. Central government need to roll in LGFV debts into their books, which still has ample room. PBoC still hold close to a trillion dollar government account as unused central government budget. Regardless, these problems will be resolved to a substantial degrees within a few years, as they will become a grey rhino if they don't get resolved in a timely fashion.
Excess savings, highly correlated with trade surplus, shows up in PBoC balance sheet. It's time to use PBoC US$ 6 trillions assets to gradually clean up and complete the unfinished housing units, letting Central Huijin prop up both stocks and real estate, and gradually withdraw back once they have a healthy footing. And CIC, one of the largest sovereign funds, needs to refocus on domestic investment, even at a loss. Somewhat a smaller version of 2008 bailout. You can't let the regular Chinese families suffer indefinitely. Not to worry about inflation as China has so much excess capacity. China's banking assets, nearly four times her GDP, compared to US's roughly 70%, may be not willing to help the real estate troubles. So PBoC have to step in as a last resort. That seems to be the way it's going as cleanest of dirty shirts in real estate are being approved to get loans even without collateral. The two underlying problems of shadow banking, even though itself thinning, and LGFV debts, both closely intertwined with real estate troubles, need to be taken care of real quick. Maybe waiting for new laws on these steps. Central government need to roll in LGFV debts into their books, which still has ample room. PBoC still hold close to a trillion dollar government account as unused central government budget. Regardless, these problems will be resolved to a substantial degrees within a few years, as they will become a grey rhino if they don't get resolved in a timely fashion.
China's software and information technology service industry reported double-digit growth in revenue and profits in the first 10 months of the year, data from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology showed.
Profits of the sector expanded 13.8 percent year-on-year to 1.14 trillion yuan ($160 billion) in the period, while revenue grew by 13.7 percent from a year ago to 9.82 trillion yuan, showed the data.
Revenue from software products increased by 11.4 percent year-on-year to 2.32 trillion yuan in this period. Revenue from industrial software products expanded to 223.1 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 12.2 percent, according to the data.
Cloud computing and big data services revenue jumped 14.8 percent year-on-year, and e-commerce platform technical services revenue rose 9 percent, the data showed.
Profits of the sector expanded 13.8 percent year-on-year to 1.14 trillion yuan ($160 billion) in the period, while revenue grew by 13.7 percent from a year ago to 9.82 trillion yuan, showed the data.
Revenue from software products increased by 11.4 percent year-on-year to 2.32 trillion yuan in this period. Revenue from industrial software products expanded to 223.1 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 12.2 percent, according to the data.
Cloud computing and big data services revenue jumped 14.8 percent year-on-year, and e-commerce platform technical services revenue rose 9 percent, the data showed.
Unfortunately the Comrade Chairman is against Universal Basic Income (can't remember where I read this but it's credible or else I wouldn't remember anything at all)...he believes it destroys productivity for some reason -- maybe he doesn't have the full picture of the theory and certainly it could be dangerously counterproductive if implemented incorrectly (like quantitative easing causing inflation when not performed properly) but I do wish he at least gives it his full and most earnest consideration....
I think Chinese leaders and economic planners are aware of this more than us in this forum. So they have their reasons for doing or not doing what we assume they should do. So i guess we can trust them to do whats best as they know the situation better than us.
Yes...but remember it was literally starving peasants in the south that literally forced the government to abandon agricultural collectivization when they secretly tended their own crops after the day's quota of forced labor (i.e., Soviet styled collective farming)....
A great book everyone on this thread should read is Professor Isabella Weber's incredibly important "How China Escaped Shock Therapy" which detailed how the proletariat lead the Party in that instance!
China can't do that right now, not only will you piss of a bunch of older people who have to wait longer before collecting pension, you are also pissing off younger people for being unable to find a job. pushing back retirement age will have to wait until the labor market tightens.