Chinese Economics Thread

D

Deleted member 24525

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Lmao, excluding the top ten regions in a GDP per capita ranking is considered excluding statistical outliers. If I could delete the top ten peaks in my experimental graphs, you would not believe the kind of theories I can come up with.
If you seriously do not understand why including things like tiny islands that are used as tax havens, or city states with a major position in the global financial system, might have a distorting effect on any analysis of what the main determinants of a country's per capita output are IN GENERAL, then there is no point in continuing this conversation.
 

SanWenYu

Captain
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If you seriously do not understand why including things like tiny islands that are used as tax havens, or city states with a major position in the global financial system, might have a distorting effect on any analysis of what the main determinants of a country's per capita output are IN GENERAL, then there is no point in continuing this conversation.
That's to show the flaw in your logic in which you claim Australia is more advanced than Russia because of its higher GDP per capita at the same time Russia is less advanced than Germany for the same reason.

There are many reasons for an economy to have higher GDP than the others. Technological advantage is only one of the many. It's of much less importance to GDP when exchange rates are distorted like in the case of ruble.
 

sunnymaxi

Captain
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A total of 859 investment and trade deals worth about 2.24 trillion yuan (about $312 billion) have been signed at an investment promotion event for the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, the event organizer said Wednesday...

just one investment promotion event total signed deals are bigger than many countries total GDP .. insane

CIIE last year signed 73.50 Billion Dollars worth of deals. this year they might touch magical 100 Billion dollars figure.

don't forget, every Major city/Region host these kind of trade fairs every year.

China is the largest real economy in the world with any metrics.
 
D

Deleted member 24525

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That's to show the flaw in your logic in which you claim Australia is more advanced than Russia
I literally never said this. That being said it is true.

The distortion effects of global financial flows on small countries' GDP and the distortion effects of unequal resource distributions on countries' GDP are very different in nature and it's ridiculous to equate them in a one-to-one way.

This began with comparisons between Germany and Russia. Additionally, Australia having a higher per capita GDP than Russia, and an output 75% that of Russia, despite having far smaller fossil fuel resources, a population 1/8 the size of Russia, and no Soviet legacy capabilities does not say what you seem to think it says about the strength of the Russian economy or the influence of non-technological factors on economic output.
 
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Petrolicious88

Senior Member
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China buy a lot of oil from Iran and Russia which are sanctioned by the US, does it mean some Chinese officials are criminal under US law ... remember Huawei CFO that arrested in Canada ..... does it mean the US could arrest some of Chinese officials during APEX ? .. well I know it is extremely unlikely, but there was a precedence
I doubt it. U.S. is going into recession next year. Ukraine war not going well. Middle East tension high. So, US is reaching out to China to keep things cool until next year, which is the tail end of Biden’s presidency anyway. After that, a new president (likely Republican), and “this conflict” would be back on.

Notice Us hasn’t backdown on none of the important stuff
 

zbb

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That's just another article with a sensationalist and misleading title. From later in the article, we see that the so called "deflation" is due to lower food prices compared with a year ago when there was a pork shortage in China.
Consumer prices in China dipped 0.2 percent in October compared with a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday. Falling food prices played an important role, notably a 30 percent plunge in pork prices as Chinese farmers began raising more pigs.

Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, was positive 0.6 percent YoY for October.
Changes in food prices can be abrupt and do not necessarily lead to either deflation or inflation, which are changes in the overall price level of an economy. Excluding food prices as well as energy prices — gasoline became slightly more expensive in China last month — consumer prices in October were up 0.6 percent from a year earlier, the statistical agency said.
 

pbd456

Junior Member
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PPP is a better metric to judge the economic strength if a country is producing and consuming most of the stuff it produces. The nominal rates doesn't take into account the inflation. For example. If a good costs $5 in China and china produces 5000 of those goods. China will add $25000 nominal value to it's GDP. If the same good costs $10 in the US and the US produces 300 of those goods, US would add $30000 nominal value to it's GDP. If China decides to pump all it's reserves to boost the value of yuan which boosts yuan's value by 20-25%, China's nominal GDP will shoot past the US. Does that inherently mean China's economy is more productive than the US?? Not necessarily. Infact a strong yuan would tank China's exports and reduce the trade surpluses it runs with other countries. The value of dollar going up or down doesn't indicate what china is producing and consuming. What matters is imports and exports, productivity, manufacturing output and a strong domestic consumption and savings. China is ahead of US in all those metrics.
What I think it happens is that China produces it for 5 USD, and then export it to US, US sell the product for 30 USD. Among the 25 are shipping, US services, distribution and profit. How much of the 25 are part of US GDP.

I have been buying from TaoBao in HK and try to compare the products to those from Amazon.
 

zgx09t

Junior Member
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While nominal GDP certainly has its problems as a means of comparing output, PPP GDP is not necessarily any better and in many cases is actually worse. The main reason for this is that the product mix of different countries at different development levels and different industrial compositions is, well, different. To compensate for this economists have to either make dramatic compromises on what constitutes the 'same product' or, more commonly, they simply leave out large swaths of countries' product mixes that they do not share with each other. This will obviously tend to be biased against richer countries since they make many things that only a handful of other countries are capable of making, and so much of their product mix will simply be left out of the PPP calculations, causing their GDP to be substantially understated. When using the PPP measure, then, you will get results like India's GDP being over double that of Japan or Germany's, or Russia's GDP being over 2.5x that of South Korea. So while nominal GDP does tend to overstate rich countries' output due to things like imputed rents and the effects of labor costs on exchange rates, PPP GDP tends to be just as bad, only in the opposite direction. China's economy relative to the US is certainly bigger than nominal measurements would suggest, but it is very likely that the PPP measure goes too far in compensating for this.

We do not know what is causing the decline in reinvested FDI earnings, and I can think of at least four plausible reasons why it might be happening, but have not yet seen convincing evidence for any of them. I would recommend against speculating much in any direction until we have more information.

gdp as a means to take pulse on a nation's wealth is flawed like measuring a shadow to figure out a person's size, shape and stature.
Its earlier modern form was conceptualized in the aftermath of great depression and subsequently during WWII to make sure war production going without bankrupting the country.

Is dopamine production a good measure of a country's wealth? How much bushels of wheat as true wealth as a physiocrats would do would be correct way to measure a country's wealth?

A country wealth, in a sense of true power and development, is really all about making a mix of a whole lot of useful stuff for yourself and others with lowest inputs possible, but not entirely for profit and greed only, that's what Smith wanted and wrote about all along.
That's why government should have a role to play to create equity, not equality, as no one or no nation is equal to each other but kind of have a moral duty to reciprocate in trade. That's how Smith as a moral philosopher had argued.
Hence theoretically you can call Chinese a true Smithians as the government is building infrastructure and alleviating poverty across all spectrum creating a sizeable amount of equity among the rich, poor and across diverse far flung regions.
Is it for profits? No. For equity, definitely yes.

He pretty much hated British empire and their behemoth mercantilism, hence finding a ready audience in revolutionary America, especially among the political class.
A moral philosopher and a trained rhetorical speaker, he mentioned "invincible hand" only once his only two books, as he must have learnt Shakespeare's words earlier in his life as a child of a wealthy family.
People like Jacob Viner, Frank Knight to Milton Friedman and George Stigler just run with this really odd obsession with this obscurely mentioned "invincible hand" and all these later inventions, based on this waving hand, of rugged individualism and greed is good are all worthy of Hollywood fictions.
 

zbb

Junior Member
Registered Member
We do not know what is causing the decline in reinvested FDI earnings, and I can think of at least four plausible reasons why it might be happening, but have not yet seen convincing evidence for any of them. I would recommend against speculating much in any direction until we have more information.

We do know the reason, it's the difference in interest rates.
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"With interest rates in China 'lower for longer' while interest rates outside of China 'higher for longer', capital outflow pressures are likely to persist."

Julian Evans-Pritchard, head of China economics at Capital Economics, said the unusually-large interest rate gap "has led firms to remit their retained earnings out of the country".

Interest rates on 3-month US treasury bills are now over 5.5% (annualized), but 3-month Chinese government bonds are paying just 2.3%.
 

donjasjit

New Member
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The argument of which country is a bigger economic power is a talk in semantics. It is coloured by perceptions which overwhelms all logical thinking.

However, one thing is clear, if China manages to escape the technology barrier of the west and develops advanced chip technology on par with the west, there will be no doubt even in the minds of the most rabid western supporter that China has eclipsed the West. That is because of two reasons which every western writer repeats ad nauseam
1 Chip technology is the foundation technology of many other technologies so as long as the west dominates chip technology it will dominate other technologies like A.I as well
2 In every article written by detractors of the west, it is claimed that chip technology is so difficult to master it will take China a very long time and the West will further increase it's lead.

If in such a scenario, China makes a chip as good as the best the west can make then mark my words, every article by previous western supporters will be filled with self doubt and the decline of the western economy as compared to the east will be seen as inevitable.
 
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