Chinese Economics Thread

FriedRiceNSpice

FriedRiceNSpice

Captain
In4ser said:
No they should keep striving and learning to adapt to a new environment. Young Chinese have gotten too comfortable for long periods of mostly uninterrupted growth and expected the government to deliver them guaranteed job security and comfort. No one should expect handouts as it creates complacency and narrow mindedness. Encourage them to take risk and not be like Japanese salarymen or Korean graduates expecting handouts because of social expectations. Risk and success always go hand in hand, the greater the risk the greater the opportunity for success but too little risk and you risk stagnation.
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Well, waiting for a job doesn't necessarily equate to not doing anything. They may be using that time to upskill and/or prepping for the extremely competitive interview process that they must overcome first.

Also I would caution against associating uninterrupted growth with complacency. The rapid growth of the economy actually leads to a constantly evolving job market where the workforce has to constantly adapt to stay relevant. Periods of explosive growth (1980s, 1995-2009) were generally unaccompanied with waves of rising unemployment, as uncompetitive jobs were lost and workers had to adapt to new in-demand jobs. In the past, closures of stable jobs in state-owned enterprises resulted in many workers needing to find new jobs in the private sector. Today, we are still seeing ongoing loss of jobs in low-value-add manufacturing as demand in knowledge-based jobs and higher-value-add manufacturing jobs increase. While at a high level, it may appear that the periods of rapid growth led to an overall increase in the number of jobs constantly increasing, many jobs were also lost during the period. The scale of job-creation in China over past few decades is truly impressive.
 
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Fedupwithlies

Fedupwithlies

Junior Member
Registered Member
gpt said:
NEW YORK, Aug 17 (Reuters) - China Evergrande (3333.HK), which is the world's most heavily indebted property developer and became the poster child for China's property crisis, on Thursday filed for protection from creditors in a U.S. bankruptcy court.

The company sought protection under Chapter 15 of the U.S. bankruptcy code, which shields non-U.S. companies that are undergoing restructurings from creditors that hope to sue them or tie up assets in the United States.

An affiliate, Tianji Holdings, also sought Chapter 15 protection on Thursday in Manhattan bankruptcy court.

A lawyer for Evergrande did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Evergrande's filing comes amid growing fears that problems in China's property sector could spread to other parts of the country's economy as growth slows.

Since the sector's debt crisis unfolded in mid-2021, companies accounting for 40% of Chinese home sales have defaulted.

The health of Country Garden (2007.HK), China's largest privately run developer, is also worrying investors after the company missed some interest payments this month.

Evergrande recently had $330 billion of liabilities. A late 2021 default triggered a string of defaults at other builders, resulting in thousands of unfinished homes across China.

In a filing in the Manhattan bankruptcy court, Evergrande said it was seeking recognition of restructuring talks under way in Hong Kong, the Cayman Islands and the British Virgin Islands.

Evergrande has said creditors may be able to vote this month on a restructuring, with possible approval by Hong Kong and British Virgin Islands courts in the first week of September.

The company proposed scheduling a Chapter 15 recognition hearing for Sept. 20.

Last month, Evergrande posted a combined $81 billion loss for 2021 and 2022, prompting investor worries about the viability of a debt restructuring plan it proposed in March.

On Monday, its electric-vehicle unit China Evergrande New Energy Vehicle Group (0708.HK) announced its own proposed restructuring.

That plan called for a $2.7 billion debt-for-equity swap, and a nearly $500 million share sale that would give Dubai-based automaker NWTN (NWTN.O) a 27.5% stake.

Evergrande NEV's combined 2021 and 2022 loss was nearly $10 billion.

Trading in China Evergrande shares was suspended in March 2022.
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This is getting a lot of traction on my social media circles.
I wonder what the implications are in the short-term.

There's a lot of celebration from left-wing types in general because they're convinced China won't give them a bailout and they like to see "rich people see the consequences of their actions" while right-wing types (and I mean right and left wing in the international sense, not the American "fascist and fascist but with LGBT support" sense) are convinced "China is collapsing".

I think in the long term this is good, but short-term what's going to happen?
 
luosifen

luosifen

Senior Member
Registered Member
Fedupwithlies said:
This is getting a lot of traction on my social media circles.
I wonder what the implications are in the short-term.

There's a lot of celebration from left-wing types in general because they're convinced China won't give them a bailout and they like to see "rich people see the consequences of their actions" while right-wing types (and I mean right and left wing in the international sense, not the American "fascist and fascist but with LGBT support" sense) are convinced "China is collapsing".

I think in the long term this is good, but short-term what's going to happen?
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The short term is reduced discretionary spending as seen in the economic data, people who have a lot of their wealth stored in real estate will be careful when that property value gets slashed by up to half, our family has a friend who works in the real estate industry in Liuzhou, clients selling their condos had to cut their ask prices by that much in order to sell. For someone young who doesn't have a home yet and has a stable job they would probably also wait to see how much more prices can fall before they start bargain hunting.
 
supercat

supercat

Major
David P. Goldman doesn't think China is having a financial crisis.
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1692511326067687652

Property shakeout Beijing’s tool to fight fiefdoms​

There’s no financial crisis in China, just a political standoff over local government finances
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Foreign companies increased in H1.
The first half of this year saw the number of newly established foreign-invested enterprises in China increase by a notable 35.7 percent to 24,000 despite slander and constraints from the United States, according to official data.
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