Chinese Economics Thread

[In4ser]

People have this point alot. Besides the countries that have no reason being in that organization, ie. Colombia and Mexico, can I please ask why its a point of comfort for some that China has the same, and in some cases higher, youth unemployment rate to the OECD despite being generally less developed than most of those countries, and the OECD including countries like Greece and Italy that've never been paragons for competent governance?

They're also used by multinationals to decide whether China is still a good place to invest and do business. Foreign intelligence agencies will get their hands on the data either way, regardless of whether they're published or not, it'll be those who are still interested in doing business in China who will be cutoff and China is still very much a part of the globalized world.

Plus @Quan8410 already made a lot of good points, but add the the obvious that its a slippery slope to allow the government to take certain actions against transparency and public good will for the sake of "national security." America is suffering as we see with the exodus of Chinese scientists, China's policies can create a similar blowback.

I agree. I don't see what the point is of hiding economic data unless it's worse than what is being reported.

I feel that the lack of transparency discourages domestic and foreign investment which is a greater threat to China than whatever sanctions or tariffs may come from the West. China right now is in a deflationary environment and needs to stimulate economic activity to offset the crumbling Western consumer demand and squeezed domestic household demand from the housing bust.

If anything, these Western sanctions and tariffs have been beneficial for the development of a competitive local industry, especially in semiconductors. Moreover, I don't have much faith in the US's ability to enact any competent policies (at least with this administration) to counter China.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

People have this point alot. Besides the countries that have no reason being in that organization, ie. Colombia and Mexico, can I please ask why its a point of comfort for some that China has the same, and in some cases higher, youth unemployment rate to the OECD despite being generally less developed than most of those countries, and the OECD including countries like Greece and Italy that've never been paragons for competent governance?

They're also used by multinationals to decide whether China is still a good place to invest and do business. Foreign intelligence agencies will get their hands on the data either way, regardless of whether they're published or not, it'll be those who are still interested in doing business in China who will be cutoff and China is still very much a part of the globalized world.

Plus @Quan8410 already made a lot of good points, but add the the obvious that its a slippery slope to allow the government to take certain actions against transparency and public good will for the sake of "national security." America is suffering as we see with the exodus of Chinese scientists, China's policies can create a similar blowback.

China has comparable youth unemployment to Sweden. Sweden isn't doing too bad.

China has higher life expectancy, lower maternal mortality, higher literacy, more patents and more scientific papers than many countries on that list, including a certain very special country.

A developed country has high life expectancy, low maternal mortality, high literacy, an innovation economy and contributes to global science. Its not just some GDP numbers, otherwise Gabon with GDP per capita of 10k but struggling with 35% total unemployment, high risk of infectious diseases, 69 year life expectancy and 85% literacy is more developed than Vietnam with life expectancy close to China and 99% literacy but 4k GDP per capita.

FDI is only 1% of China's GDP so if multinationals don't invest in China, it's their loss, not China's.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

 

[KYli]

People have this point alot. Besides the countries that have no reason being in that organization, ie. Colombia and Mexico, can I please ask why its a point of comfort for some that China has the same, and in some cases higher, youth unemployment rate to the OECD despite being generally less developed than most of those countries, and the OECD including countries like Greece and Italy that've never been paragons for competent governance?

Not sure what you are talking about as youth unemployment in Spain was 34.8% in 2021 and 28.3% in 2022. France youth unemployment was 17.7% in 2022. India youth unemployment was 23% in 2022. Youth unemployment in Italy was 23.9%.

Many EU nations and Latin American nations all have high youth unemployment rate. High youth unemployment rate is fairly common not just a few. In addition, many developing nations have very high youth unemployment so your argument that less developed equal less youth unemployment is just plain wrong.

They're also used by multinationals to decide whether China is still a good place to invest and do business. Foreign intelligence agencies will get their hands on the data either way, regardless of whether they're published or not, it'll be those who are still interested in doing business in China who will be cutoff and China is still very much a part of the globalized world.

Plus @Quan8410 already made a lot of good points, but add the the obvious that its a slippery slope to allow the government to take certain actions against transparency and public good will for the sake of "national security." America is suffering as we see with the exodus of Chinese scientists, China's policies can create a similar blowback.

China haters can hate all they want. It doesn't matter what China does or doesn't do. Youth unemployment rate has been constantly talked about in China for many months before China haters, traitors and MSM blow it out of proportion. It is just laughable that MSM could publish hundreds to thousands of articles about Chinese youth unemployment when in fact youth unemployment is never that relevant data. And all of sudden the concerned citizens come out of no where and talk about how they are so concern about the Chinese youth unemployment rate.

What transparency, so a liberal and freedom loving US can play nation security card but an authoritarian communist country that ruled by a dictator need transparency and can't have national security rules.

 

[Eventine]

Youth unemployment is actually a symptom of a larger phenomenon in China, which is deflation.

Basic living necessities are so cheap in China that young people can live without working. Whether it's off of their parents, or off of odd jobs here and there, young people in China have a choice, where as in the US, they don't - because inflation has made everything so expensive that if you didn't work in the US, you'd go homeless or even starve.

I'm not saying this is a great situation, mind you. It's obviously not great for businesses or for industry that young people are choosing to lay flat or can't find jobs. But a critical difference between the US and the rest of the world - and why US unemployment is, on average, so low - is that the US has barely any social safety net, especially when you consider its level of development. People who don't work in the US are treated with contempt and forced to the streets. That is how ruthless US society is, even as they claim it's China that doesn't care about human lives.

 

[fatzergling]

Youth unemployment is actually a symptom of a larger phenomenon in China, which is deflation.

Basic living necessities are so cheap in China that young people can live without working. Whether it's off of their parents, or off of odd jobs here and there, young people in China have a choice, where as in the US, they don't - because inflation has made everything so expensive that if you didn't work in the US, you'd go homeless or even starve.

I'm not saying this is a great situation, mind you. It's obviously not great for businesses or for industry that young people are choosing to lay flat or can't find jobs. But a critical difference between the US and the rest of the world - and why US unemployment is, on average, so low - is that the US has barely any social safety net, especially when you consider its level of development. People who don't work in the US are treated with contempt and forced to the streets. That is how ruthless US society is, even as they claim it's China that doesn't care about human lives.

China in the 1990's was filled with people who had no choice but to drop out of middle/high school to work for their families. Nowadays youth can graduate college and coast for a year or two to find a better/more fitting job, a massive improvement compared to what was. Sure it isn't the best outcome, but it could be worse, much much worse.

And speaking of the US, we very well may see high schoolers dropping out to work at the rate we are deprioritizing education.

 

[Deleted member 23272]

China has comparable youth unemployment to Sweden. Sweden isn't doing too bad.

? Sweden's economy is currently on the brink of recession and the country's had numerous problems stemming from housing to poor integration of its immigrants.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

A developed country has high life expectancy, low maternal mortality, high literacy, an innovation economy and contributes to global science.

Development is ultimately determined by standard of living and most Chinese up to the leadership characterize the nation as "developing." If you're thoroughly convinced China is already a wealthy developed nation, probably let Xi Jinping know so that he wouldn't constantly boast of targets to get China to that stage by 2035 or 2050.

Not sure what you are talking about as youth unemployment in Spain was 34.8% in 2021 and 28.3% in 2022. France youth unemployment was 17.7% in 2022. India youth unemployment was 23% in 2022. Youth unemployment in Italy was 23.9%.

I'm exactly saying why it should be of comfort to some that China has roughly the same youth unemployment as countries like Italy and Spain, when neither of those countries are known for competent governance, and India is a meme on this forum. And China fares poorly compared to the US with 8% youth unemployment. That's not to mention Germany, Japan, SK, Canada, shit even Thailand and Vietnam, which all range from 6-10%.

. Youth unemployment rate has been constantly talked about in China for many months before China haters, traitors and MSM blow it out of proportion. It is just laughable that MSM could publish hundreds to thousands of articles about Chinese youth unemployment when in fact youth unemployment is never that relevant data.

Its being talked about now precisely because before COVID the youth unemployment rate was 10% and after just a few years of zero COVID and government crackdowns on the private sector it rose to 20%, and now that the government has lost control of the narrative they're just choosing not to publish data on it anymore. What do outside China haters have to do with the economic situation in the country itself? They can bark their propaganda all they want, meanwhile ordinary Chinese are struggling with the sluggish economy and wondering how the government's going to fix it.

 

[Eventine]

The main reason China's economy is slowing and youth unemployment is high isn't due to the lock downs. Yes, the lock downs had an effect and contributed to the closing of many small and medium businesses. But even if it didn't happen, the property bubble was still going to pop, and with it, consumer confidence. The end result would have been similar, maybe a bit better, but at the cost of millions of additional deaths from not locking down.

You want a target to blame, blame the collusion between local governments and property giants, which was allowed to flourish for too long before Xi finally cracked down on it in 2020. Selling land was a necessary step in China's development, because it was the only reliable and abundant source of capital for infrastructure development - the only assert Chinese people were willing to invest in, domestically. Had local governments not done it, all that money would've been transferred out of China into the US, EU, etc., like was being done before China's property market took off. So the policy of selling land to build infrastructure wasn't, in and of itself, bad.

What was a problem was allowing it to be carried too far. Chinese property developers were essentially allowed to run Ponzi schemes and take on massive debt to fund more debt. This should have been controlled years ago, but wasn't, probably because of government-business collusion and entrenched interests. It took a hard socialist like Xi, who according to even CIA documents cared little for money, to finally put an end to it. But because it was allowed to carry on for so long, the damage is already done, and will take years to recover from. That's what China is dealing with right now.

 

[Staedler]

? Sweden's economy is currently on the brink of recession and the country's had numerous problems stemming from housing to poor integration of its immigrants.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Development is ultimately determined by standard of living and most Chinese up to the leadership characterize the nation as "developing." If you're thoroughly convinced China is already a wealthy developed nation, probably let Xi Jinping know so that he wouldn't constantly boast of targets to get China to that stage by 2035 or 2050.

I'm exactly saying why it should be of comfort to some that China has roughly the same youth unemployment as countries like Italy and Spain, when neither of those countries are known for competent governance, and India is a meme on this forum. And China fares poorly compared to the US with 8% youth unemployment. That's not to mention Germany, Japan, SK, Canada, shit even Thailand and Vietnam, which all range from 6-10%.

Its being talked about now precisely because before COVID the youth unemployment rate was 10% and after just a few years of zero COVID and government crackdowns on the private sector it rose to 20%, and now that the government has lost control of the narrative they're just choosing not to publish data on it anymore. What do outside China haters have to do with the economic situation in the country itself? They can bark their propaganda all they want, meanwhile ordinary Chinese are struggling with the sluggish economy and wondering how the government's going to fix it.

We've had several pages going through how youth unemployment is not calculated the same way between countries and that China's figures would be much lower if it were calculated like those countries. Do yourself a favor and go catch up; you're comparing apples and oranges.

 

[Blitzo]

Its being talked about now precisely because before COVID the youth unemployment rate was 10% and after just a few years of zero COVID and government crackdowns on the private sector it rose to 20%, and now that the government has lost control of the narrative they're just choosing not to publish data on it anymore. What do outside China haters have to do with the economic situation in the country itself? They can bark their propaganda all they want, meanwhile ordinary Chinese are struggling with the sluggish economy and wondering how the government's going to fix it.

That's exactly the point.

Once individuals and groups start to exploit data for the sake of portraying a narrative, if it is convenient to simply remove the data for a while if others are portraying it in an unreasonable fashion then they are going to remove the feed for them. Of course it is also reasonable to modify the way it is calculated, as by all accounts the current method is different to how other nations do it.


The question is like asking why China has censorship and media and information controls -- it is because individuals and groups both and domestic and overseas would aim to exploit or machine out narratives designed to undermine and limit the government's ability to carry out policies beyond what could be considered as constructive criticism and input. If the circulation of a given narrative or story gets enough circulation or traction, then they will simply remove the oxygen feeding the fire.

 

[KYli]

I'm exactly saying why it should be of comfort to some that China has roughly the same youth unemployment as countries like Italy and Spain, when neither of those countries are known for competent governance, and India is a meme on this forum. And China fares poorly compared to the US with 8% youth unemployment. That's not to mention Germany, Japan, SK, Canada, shit even Thailand and Vietnam, which all range from 6-10%.

US injected 9 trillions liquidity and 5 trillions stimulus to keep its economy from falling into recession. As a consequence, the US has 2 years of high inflation with assets bubble and likely would enter recession soon. It is absurd to compare China with the US as China didn't choose the easy way out.

Firstly, China always has around 10%(fluctuate between 8% to 14% and peak in July every year) youth unemployment rate. It is quite normal.

Most countries youth unemployment rate decrease 7% to 8% one year after ending pandemic restrictions. China has barely ended pandemic restrictions for a few months. Making a comparison now is just ridiculous.

Its being talked about now precisely because before COVID the youth unemployment rate was 10% and after just a few years of zero COVID and government crackdowns on the private sector it rose to 20%, and now that the government has lost control of the narrative they're just choosing not to publish data on it anymore. What do outside China haters have to do with the economic situation in the country itself? They can bark their propaganda all they want, meanwhile ordinary Chinese are struggling with the sluggish economy and wondering how the government's going to fix it.

Every major economies youth unemployment rate rose during the pandemic. It took them more than one year after ending pandemic restrictions before youth unemployment rate decrease. No one talks about other countries but hundreds and thousands MSM articles talk about China.

You don't need to be blind for seeing the obvious propaganda war wages against China.

Of course China haters have everything to do with this. Talking down about China, waging psychological warfare, injecting hates and negative sentiment, and brainwashing Chinese as inferior, breaking Chinese faith in the system, government and economy. Consumer confident is very important for the general economy.

Another doom and gloom from you. Chinese economy is not doing well. However, it isn't doing too badly either. Except youth unemployment rate, most other statistics is just underperform but still in the positive territory.

In the end of the day, China always has the option to inject major stimulus to spur growth. At the moment, China decided to endure some pain in order to avoid such scenario.