You can publish internal only but it will be leaked anyway. Foreign reserves could be cross checked. Birth rate could be computed by number of graduates each years. Even military spending is not hard to guess either. Besides, the enemy does not even need these information to try to contain China. They will do it anyway, and whether they succeed is another entire different matter. The British surely do not need to know how much gold china had or how many population China had to win the oppium war.
Chinese Economics Thread
- Thread starter Norfolk
- Start date
Property tax isnt coming any time soon
Let them keep guessing. Don’t need to make it easy for them by publishing the data. Information security is of paramount importance for national security.
Normally, a price decrease spurs sales. However, if they expect prices to go down further, they're likely to hold off on buying. I doubt property tax would be implemented anytime soon due to housing downturn.
Some property developers were able to offload their apartments by cutting prices 30% or more. Therefore, demand is still there but just that the price cut needs to be steep.
Cash transfers/welfare are not particularly useful if the cash is saved and not spent and in the conservative tradition (as China is fairly fiscally conservative), welfare is thought to be unproductive. The liberal tradition is that welfare increases risk-raking capacity (business formation, etc) and intergenerational mobility but that's a debate that will never be settled
BEIJING, Aug 15 (Reuters) - Barclays cut its forecast for China's 2023 gross domestic product (GDP) growth to 4.5% from 4.9% because of a faster-than-expected deterioration in the housing market, analysts at the bank said in a note on Tuesday.
China's economic activity data in July, including retail sales, industrial output and investment, failed to match expectations, fuelling concern over a deeper, longer-lasting slowdown in growth.
Most economists see downside risk to Chinese growth after the release of a batch of July data, which comes on top of a raft of weak indicators from last week - slumping exports and negative consumer prices.
"Our 2023 GDP growth forecast is already at the lower bound of analysts' forecasts, but we think the weaker-than-expected growth momentum in major economic indicators suggests our forecast of a 4.9% expansion this year is becoming increasingly difficult to reach," said Barclays.
The July macro data confirm two pain points of growth recovery. The real estate sector remains a big drag on the economic recovery and the consumption recovery stalled amid rising unemployment, said Barclays.
China's central bank on Tuesday unexpectedly chopped one set of key interest rates, before the July activity data release.
Nomura and Citi were bearish on the world's second-biggest economy without big fiscal stimulus.
"We believe the Chinese economy is faced with an imminent downward spiral with the worst yet to come, and the rate cut this morning will be of limited help," said Nomura.
"Only timely delivery of real actions can allow Beijing to meet the around 5% growth target," said Citi.
China's economic activity data in July, including retail sales, industrial output and investment, failed to match expectations, fuelling concern over a deeper, longer-lasting slowdown in growth.
Most economists see downside risk to Chinese growth after the release of a batch of July data, which comes on top of a raft of weak indicators from last week - slumping exports and negative consumer prices.
"Our 2023 GDP growth forecast is already at the lower bound of analysts' forecasts, but we think the weaker-than-expected growth momentum in major economic indicators suggests our forecast of a 4.9% expansion this year is becoming increasingly difficult to reach," said Barclays.
The July macro data confirm two pain points of growth recovery. The real estate sector remains a big drag on the economic recovery and the consumption recovery stalled amid rising unemployment, said Barclays.
China's central bank on Tuesday unexpectedly chopped one set of key interest rates, before the July activity data release.
Nomura and Citi were bearish on the world's second-biggest economy without big fiscal stimulus.
"We believe the Chinese economy is faced with an imminent downward spiral with the worst yet to come, and the rate cut this morning will be of limited help," said Nomura.
"Only timely delivery of real actions can allow Beijing to meet the around 5% growth target," said Citi.
D
Deleted member 23272
Guest
People have this point alot. Besides the countries that have no reason being in that organization, ie. Colombia and Mexico, can I please ask why its a point of comfort for some that China has the same, and in some cases higher, youth unemployment rate to the OECD despite being generally less developed than most of those countries, and the OECD including countries like Greece and Italy that've never been paragons for competent governance?
They're also used by multinationals to decide whether China is still a good place to invest and do business. Foreign intelligence agencies will get their hands on the data either way, regardless of whether they're published or not, it'll be those who are still interested in doing business in China who will be cutoff and China is still very much a part of the globalized world.
Plus @Quan8410 already made a lot of good points, but add the the obvious that its a slippery slope to allow the government to take certain actions against transparency and public good will for the sake of "national security." America is suffering as we see with the exodus of Chinese scientists, China's policies can create a similar blowback.