Chinese Economics Thread

Nick las

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" Given the slower-than-anticipated consumption growth in June, well-targeted policy steps are needed to keep the tasks of boosting domestic demand and shoring up consumption high on China's work agenda, as part of the country's efforts to a sustain steady economic upturn, experts said on Monday.

To be sure, consumption picked up in the past few months, serving as the main growth engine. But, it has not fully established a solid foundation yet — so, more forceful measures are needed to increase household incomes and spur big-ticket items in a mutually reinforcing way, they said.

Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Monday showed the country's retail sales of consumer goods totaled around 22.76 trillion yuan ($3.17 trillion) in the first half of the year, up 8.2 percent year-on-year. In June alone, the figure edged up 3.1 percent compared with the same period last year, and amounted to 3.99 trillion yuan.

Lackluster consumer demand has partly resulted in the Consumer Price Index, the main gauge of inflation, coming in flat in June compared with the same period last year, NBS data showed earlier. The People's Bank of China, the country's central bank, said on Friday that a further dip in the CPI might be expected this month, but inflation will likely pick up gradually from August to reach a level close to 1 percent by the end of the year.

Wen Bin, chief economist at China Minsheng Bank, said China has fully resumed normal order in its social and economic activities from the beginning of this year, and also announced stronger policies to stimulate consumption.

Besides, the May Day holiday and Dragon Boat Festival bolstered consumer spending in various sectors, including catering and tourism.

Consumption maintained an overall robust momentum, spurring recovery, and has played a bigger role in driving economic growth, Wen said, adding it, however, eased in June with retail sales logging the slowest growth since December when the country lifted most COVID-19 pandemic restrictions.

The slowdown in consumption growth is partly attributable to the decline in car sales and the ailing property market in June, which should receive high priority in the form of more government support, Wen said.

Data from the China Passenger Car Association showed that in the June 1-25 period, car sales fell 1 percent from the same period last year. Meanwhile, new home prices stayed unchanged in June from a year earlier, retreating from a 0.1 percent increase in May, NBS data showed.

Xu Hongcai, deputy director of the economic policy committee at the China Association of Policy Science, said more support should be extended to consumer spending on big-ticket items like new energy vehicles and home appliances, especially in the vast rural areas that have a huge potential to stir consumption.

According to a CPCA estimate, the penetration rate of NEVs in counties and townships came in at 17 percent compared with some 30 percent in cities even with purchase restrictions in place.

High-end consumption in big cities should not be the country's sole focus. Rural consumption capacity is modest, but it can grow and bring about consumption upgrade, Xu said.

The Ministry of Commerce recently rolled out a slew of policies to accelerate the recovery and expansion of consumption in the home appliances segment. These included subsidies for trading in old goods and purchasing green smart home appliances, and promotional campaigns to boost purchases of home appliances in rural areas.

Going forward, every possible means should be explored to increase household incomes, so as to boost their capacity and willingness to spend and thus better underpin the sustainable growth of consumption in the long run, Xu said.

China's per capita disposable income stood at 19,672 yuan in the first half, up 6.5 percent year-on-year in nominal terms, NBS data showed. After stripping out price factors, per capita disposable income rose 5.8 percent from the previous year."

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sunnymaxi

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You are talking about the middle income trap which is around $13,000. Most of China's east coast provinces and cities have over $15,000 GDP per capita.
China technically already a high income country as per world Bank definition.

China urbanization rate reached at 65 percent.

Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, and Guangdong – have a total population of 350 million. The per capita GDP of these seven provinces/cities has reached 60% of that of the United States in PPP and Nominal per-capita stands at $25,000

Remaining Urban population have average 10,000-13,000 per capita in Nominal.

910 Million Urban population enjoying prosperity never seen before in Chinese history. world class urban centers with lavishing infrastructure. equipped with 5G service , world leading transportation and almost nil crime rate ..


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  • The average Chinese citizen has a wealth of $26,752, around $60 more than the average European.
 

luminary

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Australia's Foreign Investment Review Board, once used for screening Chinese investments, no longer features on the State Treasury website. 'Australia welcomes foreign investment,' a new 'Foreign Investment' website says in big font.


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With its cold weather and rich biodiversity, Russia produces a variety of cold-region herbs, said Wu Changhai, deputy general manager of GPHL. He added that Indonesia is one of the main producing countries for frangipani, a key ingredient in the company's herbal tea beverages.
China's leading traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) manufacturer, Guangzhou Pharmaceutical Holdings Limited (GPHL), Tuesday announced a plan to import nearly 30,000 tonnes of TCM materials from Russia and Indonesia in the next five years.

On the same day, a subsidiary of GPHL signed agreements to purchase almost 20,000 tonnes of TCM materials, including licorice, Astragalus and Schisandra chinensis from Russia, and close to 10,000 tonnes of TCM materials, including frangipani from Indonesia, with a total estimated value of about 1.3 billion yuan (182 million U.S. dollars).
 

FairAndUnbiased

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Industrial power doesn't necessarily mean you escape the middle income trap.

GDP per capita is the only relevant definition. Everything else is secondary. You could literally be forced into a middle income trap if nobody buys your products - however advanced - due to sanctions & you don't have the consumption to make up for that gap in demand.

All that matters, in the end, for continued wealth generation is the continued growth of both supply & demand. Middle income countries fall into the trap for various reasons. A common pattern is supply side bottle necks due to lack of necessary talent. But demand bottle necks can also exist.

This isn't a binary condition. It's not a case of "if you're out, you're out."

It's a persistent battle to escape stagnation.
if you get sanctioned then there will always be guaranteed internal demand, and unlike countries that can't support global industries off that demand like Thailand and Brazil, China can.
 

sunnymaxi

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Shanghai Inks 77 New Foreign Investment Projects Worth USD10.2 Billion

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Shanghai Mayor Gong Zheng was present at the signing of 77 foreign investment projects worth over USD10.2 billion yesterday, while the city government issued certificates to 31 newly recognized regional headquarters of multinational firms and 13 research and development centers at the same ceremony.

The investment projects are in the biomedicine, electronic information, auto, fashion, digital economy, and green and low-carbon industries. Ten of the projects were from Fortune Global 500 firms, including US-based Medtronic, which will set up an investment fund in Shanghai to create an innovative ecosystem for doctors, industry professionals, entrepreneurs, and investors and France's Air Liquide, which penned an additional investment to expand its business.

Japanese trading giant Sumitomo is investing another USD30 million in China, Yoshitaka Koketsu, president, chairman, and general manager of Sumitomo Pharma Suzhou, told Yicai Global. “We believe that there will be more and more business opportunities in China in the future, and we hope to expand the market by setting up investment firms,” he said.

Innovation is a key driver in the pharmaceutical industry, and Tokyo-based Sumitomo plans to develop and launch more new products in China in the next five years, Koketsu added.

Sales in China accounted for 6.8 percent of Sumitomo's total in fiscal 2021, with the figure climbing to 8 percent the year after.

Medtronic Shanghai will continue to raise its investment in the city, not only because biomedicine is one of the three leading industries there, but also because the local business environment is good, said Song Jingwei, its vice president of finance, business development, and investment. Shanghai is the undisputed highland of biomedical talent in China, Song added.

Faurecia China Holding's GM Alban Brisset said the French global automotive supplier, which focuses on investing in hydrogen storage cylinders and storage systems, plans to increase the market share of the latter in China to more than 20 percent in 2025 from 15 percent in the past three years. It aims to sell over 4,000 units in 2025 and increase that to 30,000 by 2030, he added.

Shanghai remains a hotspot for foreign investment, with the number of foreign-invested firms set up in the city soaring 79 percent to 2,096 in the five months ended May 31 from a year earlier, according to official figures. Actual use of foreign funds rose 17.3 percent to USD11.2 billion, with the service sector gaining 15.2 percent to USD10.8 billion from a year ago to account for 97 percent of the total.
 
It's quite silly that nominal GDP per capita is used as the metric for economic classification. Russia fell from high income to middle income solely due to rubble depreciation is a good example of how senseless this type of classification is. World bank classifications are solely for lending purposes, which explains why nominal GDP is used, but as a result it's only a partially accurate proxy for measuring how developed an economy is.
 

zbb

Junior Member
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if you get sanctioned then there will always be guaranteed internal demand, and unlike countries that can't support global industries off that demand like Thailand and Brazil, China can.
It's strange that people still "worry" about demand in China when Chinese domestic sales of most goods far exceeds any other market despite China's nominal GDP being lower than the US and only a little larger than the EU. In fact, the Chinese domestic market is larger than the US and EU combined for many categories of goods. This is the reason why western companies are rushing to invest in China despite the constant call to decouple/de-risk from their governments and propaganda outlets/media.

Of course, there are some items where Chinese domestic demand lack far behind the US and western countries, e.g. opioids, cocaine, methamphetamines, fire arms, bullet proof accessories for kindergarteners, etc. Is that what these people are referring to when they "worry" about low Chinese domestic demand?
 

Minm

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The middle income trap in countries like Mexico and Thailand is partially due to China itself. They failed because they were not advanced enough, like Korea and Taiwan, to sell goods from higher up the value chain to China. But now that China is moving beyond middle income, south east Asia and Latin America may become competitive again and sell lower value goods to both China and America
 

GiantPanda

Junior Member
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It's strange that people still "worry" about demand in China when Chinese domestic sales of most goods far exceeds any other market despite China's nominal GDP being lower than the US and only a little larger than the EU. In fact, the Chinese domestic market is larger than the US and EU combined for many categories of goods. This is the reason why western companies are rushing to invest in China despite the constant call to decouple/de-risk from their governments and propaganda outlets/media.

Of course, there are some items where Chinese domestic demand lack far behind the US and western countries, e.g. opioids, cocaine, methamphetamines, fire arms, bullet proof accessories for kindergarteners, etc. Is that what these people are referring to when they "worry" about low Chinese domestic demand?

The so-called low "demand" in China angle is pretty easy to point out as a complete falsehood.

China consumes almost twice as many cars and three times as as many air conditioners as the US -- just as an example:

IMG_9828.jpeg
IMG_9826.jpeg

There is no bigger market for practically every appliance, white good or house hold consumerable than China.
 
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