Chinese Economics Thread

luminary

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Catalog Success Magazine
Chinese e-retailer
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in its dealings with clothing manufacturers, escalating a legal clash for dominance in the fast-fashion market. Temu filed the new case on Friday in Boston federal court.

The two companies are already embroiled in litigation in Chicago federal court, where SHEIN has alleged Temu worked with influencers to disparage SHEIN on social media. Temu's bid to dismiss that case is pending. Temu's new
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that SHEIN has abused its market power in trying to coerce manufacturers to shun Temu. The complaint alleged SHEIN "forces manufacturers to sign loyalty oaths certifying that they will not do business with Temu."

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The facility will produce natural soda ash, which is cheaper than synthetic soda ash.
China-based Inner Mongolia Berun Group started production at a new natural soda ash factory in Inner Mongolia, China, in late June. The factory, located in Alxa Right Banner, is expected to reach a capacity of 5 million metric tons (MT) by the end of this year, accounting for approximately 13.8% of China's total soda ash production. Prior to the factory's opening, China's soda ash production stood at around 31 million MT.
“Prior to the start-up of this new plant about 94% of the soda ash capacity in China was synthetic,” Marguerite Morrin, Research and Analysis Director at OPIS' Chemical Market Analytics division told pv magazine. “Natural soda ash production, which is via a mining process, is typically much lower cost than synthetic.”
Inner Mongolia Berun Group has invested $2 billion in the new facility and plans to allocate an additional $3 billion to expand its capacity to 7.8 million MT in the future.
According to Morrin, the new factory could contribute to a decrease in soda ash and PV glass prices.
 

AndrewS

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I'd agree demand side is more important for China, but there are many historical examples of supply side failures. Latin American countries, in particular, which attempted to practice import substitution 50-60 years ago and failed spectacularly to become competitive with American & European industries due to lack of talent, funds, or both.

I see Latin America failing primarily because:

1. These countries didn't provide a stable and attractive business environment for long-term R&D investments

2. a lack of a large enough domestic market or a focus on exports. Unless companies face competition, companies get worse


China doesn't seem to have that problem in most industries, but it has a serious problem with demand, which could cripple the economy as Japan's example showed. East Asian countries generally don't have a problem with technical competence, but they do have a problem with companies and consumers both being fiscally "cheap" - high house hold savings rates, preferring assets investments over consumption, and so failing to create the kinds of demand & employment conditions the Western world generates.

Japan stagnated when it was already a wealthy developed economy, comparable to the US.

In comparison, two-thirds of China's population still earns less than RMB 2000 (about US$300) per month.
We can still expect this group (mostly in the interior) to double their incomes to match their coastal counterparts. This alone will prevent a Japan 1990s stagnation scenario.


As long as the Western world is willing to buy, that's not a problem. Your just export your way out of demand deficiencies.

If the Western world stops buying, though, it could become a huge problem because exports are typically 20 to 30% of East Asian economies, and with growth rates in the 2-5% range, a major depression in exports could cause general recession & stagnation.

I see growth in Chinese exports to the Global South increasing faster than any realistic reduction of exports to the West, barring a war, as per the historical experience of the past 10-odd years.

And remember the data shows China now exporting more to the Global South than to the West.
 

ansy1968

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I see Latin America failing primarily because:

1. These countries didn't provide a stable and attractive business environment for long-term R&D investments

2. a lack of a large enough domestic market or a focus on exports. Unless companies face competition, companies get worse
And most them are Catholics oligarchy society.
I see growth in Chinese exports to the Global South increasing faster than any realistic reduction of exports to the West, barring a war, as per the historical experience of the past 10-odd years.

And remember the data shows China now exporting more to the Global South than to the West.
Because the Chinese export affordable tangible goods. Why would we buy an Apple product when there is a cheaper Chinese equivalent.
 

henrik

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Industrial power doesn't necessarily mean you escape the middle income trap.

GDP per capita is the only relevant definition. Everything else is secondary. You could literally be forced into a middle income trap if nobody buys your products - however advanced - due to sanctions & you don't have the consumption to make up for that gap in demand.

All that matters, in the end, for continued wealth generation is the continued growth of both supply & demand. Middle income countries fall into the trap for various reasons. A common pattern is supply side bottle necks due to lack of necessary talent. But demand bottle necks can also exist.

This isn't a binary condition. It's not a case of "if you're out, you're out."

It's a persistent battle to escape stagnation.

That is why the world is sanctioning the $US, by moving away from the $US. Demand for products from the western world is shrinking, due to the world moving away from $US, and using their own currencies more. The demand for products will come from non-western countries.
 

fatzergling

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Industrial power doesn't necessarily mean you escape the middle income trap.

GDP per capita is the only relevant definition. Everything else is secondary. You could literally be forced into a middle income trap if nobody buys your products - however advanced - due to sanctions & you don't have the consumption to make up for that gap in demand.

All that matters, in the end, for continued wealth generation is the continued growth of both supply & demand. Middle income countries fall into the trap for various reasons. A common pattern is supply side bottle necks due to lack of necessary talent. But demand bottle necks can also exist.

This isn't a binary condition. It's not a case of "if you're out, you're out."

It's a persistent battle to escape stagnation.
Given China's current growth rate of ~5% and it's current GDP/c of 12800, I would be astonished if China wasn't a high income country by definition in 2025 at the very latest.

Besides, middle income trap is a phenomenon where GDP growth stagnates due to uncompetitive products, which in most cases means being unable to sell to large markets like China or US while not having a large enough internal market to support R&D on product development. While China's economy has many many issues, the middle income trap in it's classical sense does not apply to China due to it's gigantic internal market: any product that has won the competition in China is ready to compete in the world. And even if the product isn't sold to the world, China's internal market means that the companies can still become gigantic, as is the case with Baidu, Wechat, etc.

Frankly, I am so sure of this prediction that I'm willing to bet money that China's GDP/c can be considered "high income" at 2025 at the latest. Even if China crashes to 1-2% growth (which is very unlikely for the next 20-30 years), it will painfully limp past the middle income line due to it's prior development.
 

Eventine

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Most of the developing countries that were trapped in middle income trap were due to de-industrialize and lack of industrial power. China is already way past that with everything from infrastructure, electricity consumption, and cars ownership. You are talking about the middle income trap which is around $13,000. Most of China's east coast provinces and cities have over $15,000 GDP per capita.

As for nobody buying your products, you mean a war with the US. If there were a war, then middle income trap is the last thing that you need to worry about.

Middle income countries got stuck in middle income or unable to move beyond middle income are mostly with countries that don't have their own industrial giants and champions. China has its own industrial giants and champions and dominate in many key industries.

Anglo-Saxon international liberal orders have ensured that many countries don't have a complete supply chain and rely upon the West. As we have witnessed in Russia, China is fully capable of supplying Russia with everything that it needs. That means China could survive any embargo and would come out ahead of the West as the West is much more de-industrailize and rely upon China than the other way around.

The sole reason why there is a trad war and why the US is using everything to stop China's rise is that China is the only country for centuries outside of the Western powers that has the capability and pieces in place to fully decouple with the West which scares a hell out of the Western powers that now trying to threaten China with kitchen sinks in order to stop China's rise.
I don't disagree with most of what you said, but national champions are only one piece of the puzzle. Having a Huawei or a BYD does not mean your entire economy is going to thrive. The scale of China's economy is not what a few national champions can drive. Demand is going to be a huge challenge, because different from countries like Vietnam or South Korea, there's not enough external demand in the entire world to power an economy three times the size of the US's - which is what China will have to be to have similar GDP per capita to top 10 countries.

Also, you can't fix this by dominating every industry, because doing so means that every other country in the world - outside of maybe the resource exporters - won't have strong economies, and then you wouldn't be able to export anything because they won't be able to pay for it. The US is able to create such immense demand because it runs a huge trade deficit. If the West had a surplus like China, they wouldn't be able to absorb all those exports, in which case export-based strategies like those in East Asia would never work.

Bottom line - there has to be demand for supply side industrial strategies to work. East Asia's biggest problem, historically and currently, has been demand. Too much money is tied up in property & savings accounts, in rent seeking investments that don't contribute to productivity. Japan had this problem, and now both South Korea and China have it too. East Asians are very productive, but they are poor consumers.
 
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Biscuits

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Given China's current growth rate of ~5% and it's current GDP/c of 12800, I would be astonished if China wasn't a high income country by definition in 2025 at the very latest.

Besides, middle income trap is a phenomenon where GDP growth stagnates due to uncompetitive products, which in most cases means being unable to sell to large markets like China or US while not having a large enough internal market to support R&D on product development. While China's economy has many many issues, the middle income trap in it's classical sense does not apply to China due to it's gigantic internal market: any product that has won the competition in China is ready to compete in the world. And even if the product isn't sold to the world, China's internal market means that the companies can still become gigantic, as is the case with Baidu, Wechat, etc.

Frankly, I am so sure of this prediction that I'm willing to bet money that China's GDP/c can be considered "high income" at 2025 at the latest. Even if China crashes to 1-2% growth (which is very unlikely for the next 20-30 years), it will painfully limp past the middle income line due to it's prior development.
It is technically high income now as of Q2.

But it doesn't mean that much. China always had areas that are as developed as the most advanced economies in the world, and other areas that still have a lot of growth room.

There's no such thing as a middle income trap, only a corrupt oligarchy trap. Countries with high income like for example UK have also experienced the same phenomenon. Greedy elite rule paralyzing the society, cannibalizing budgets and dividing up education, healthcare etc. into their personal, ineffective fiefdoms.

To a lesser extent, US is also in this trap, though they can leech off occupied resource rich countries and the EU market to stay barely out of recession.

If a country spends 100$ on a project and the project only advances with 10$ of value, then that country is never gonna achieve anything more than it already has.
 

luminary

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Macao News
China is planning to increase its imports of Brazilian oil to replace the more expensive Saudi Arabian supply, unnamed industry sources have
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Reuters.


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The parties worked out approaches to the development of educational programs for young technology scientists of Belarus and China, discussed localization of production of Chinese investors and attraction of foreign investments to Belarus.


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Finance Magnates
Formal launch of
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to serve the African continent from its new regional headquarters in Rwanda.
 

quim

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And most them are Catholics oligarchy society.

Because the Chinese export affordable tangible goods. Why would we buy an Apple product when there is a cheaper Chinese equivalent.
No more. All countries in Latin America are Masonic and Liberal oligarchies since the 19th century.

All were former colonies of European empires, but with the rise of Freemasonry and the US, the Monroe Doctrine ensured that the various official European colonies would secede from their metropolis and become US colonies in their place.

And the region fell into the Middle Income trap precisely because whenever any leadership threatened to rise up and counter US influence and ally itself with some more advantageous force, a US backed military coup took place to ensure that US interests will continued to be preserved in the region.

The US will never allow a power not aligned with them to grow in its backyard.

Cuba and Venezuela can speak against the US but as they are miserable, isolated and unarmed countries, the US tolerates them only to serve as scarecrows and propaganda for the people to be afraid of what might happen if they challenge US hegemony. But if Cuba were used to host nuclear missiles again there would definitely be threats of war and even invasion, because the US and its paranoia do not tolerate real threats.
 
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