Chinese Economics Thread

[Michaelsinodef]

I think we need to differentiate a few things here. China's software industry in general may be very well developed and have plenty of talent. We've seen with EV/AVs, the European automakers just can't develop anything. China also has the only alternatives to American tech companies when it comes to e-commerce, social media apps and search engines. What Huawei has done in the past few years is quite impressive. But for certain sectors, it could very well be the case that Chinese software makers are not putting out competitive products.

My personal experience dealing with software engineers from China was about 6 to 7 years ago when I interacted with Shanghai Gold exchange & CFFEX. I wasn't too impressed with what they did. But that could just be because high level of bureaucracy with those organizations.

Oh I have no problems with that, and are in agreement (certain sectors behind/not competitive).

I just kinda have a problem with abenomics when he just suddenly comes out with, oh China will only catch up in this sector in XX years (not to mention not being clear if it's catch up to what? leading edge? current level?).
While not properly specifying why he thinks so (such as adding that he has talked with industry insiders of chinese firms about it) and also not leaving room for changes but instead basically just asserting it as if it were a fact, despite it being a prediction of the future.

Would have far less problems if he came out with his sources, and then said something like "in about ~10 years, if there are no new development/tech/disruptions", as that way we can have his opinion as well as an idea of why he has such as opinion.

 

[abenomics12345]

Is that meant as just catching up to current capability or to actually catch up to Dassault Systems CATIA?

Current capability.

they are lying

Just because they say things that disagree with your worldview doesn't mean they're lying. Think about what you're saying - you imply that you know this better than the industry practitioners. As well, you are effectively saying that they are not up to date on the best way to develop software. So you are saying that they can catch up better but that they don't know the best way to do it? Are they good or are they bad? Make up your mind.

the condition that there aren't any new disruptive tech/developments which really can't be ruled out.

What specifically is the disruption that faces analog chips that you see today? Simply waving your hands and saying "something is out there, I don't know what, but its there" is not evidence - you might as well argue that there are aliens just because we can't prove there aren't aliens.

 

[56860]

I think we need to differentiate a few things here. China's software industry in general may be very well developed and have plenty of talent. We've seen with EV/AVs, the European automakers just can't develop anything. China also has the only alternatives to American tech companies when it comes to e-commerce, social media apps and search engines. What Huawei has done in the past few years is quite impressive. But for certain sectors, it could very well be the case that Chinese software makers are not putting out competitive products.

My personal experience dealing with software engineers from China was about 6 to 7 years ago when I interacted with Shanghai Gold exchange & CFFEX. I wasn't too impressed with what they did. But that could just be because high level of bureaucracy with those organizations.

Software like search engines and e-commerce arose as a result of the GFW and are naturally more profitable and 'flashy' professions to be in. There is a genuine need to fill that space and enough talent to do it. I think it's a completely different scenario when it comes to less sexy stuff like AutoCAD, where Chinese companies are more than happy to depend on German/American software rather than invest manpower and money developing their own.

 

[abenomics12345]

Oh I have no problems with that, and are in agreement (certain sectors behind/not competitive).

I just kinda have a problem with abenomics when he just suddenly comes out with, oh China will only catch up in this sector in XX years (not to mention not being clear if it's catch up to what? leading edge? current level?).
While not properly specifying why he thinks so (such as adding that he has talked with industry insiders of chinese firms about it) and also not leaving room for changes but instead basically just asserting it as if it were a fact, despite it being a prediction of the future.

Would have far less problems if he came out with his sources, and then said something like "in about ~10 years, if there are no new development/tech/disruptions", as that way we can have his opinion as well as an idea of why he has such as opinion.

To be crystal clear, I've not said anything about that 'current gap' not shrinking. I am not saying that Chinese companies will not catch up to leading edge.

 

[tphuang]

Software like search engines and e-commerce arose as a result of the GFW and are naturally more profitable and 'flashy' professions to be in. There is a genuine need to fill that space and enough talent to do it. I think it's a completely different scenario when it comes to less sexy stuff like AutoCAD, where Chinese companies are more than happy to depend on German/American software rather than invest manpower and money developing their own.

well, that's a problem right? Until Huawei got cut off from everything, it didn't think it need to develop its own ERP software but then it had too. In the long run, it's a disaster for Western govt to abuse certain monopolies their companies have by cutting off access. But in the short run, that could still post real problems for Chinese firms. That's why we see such a concerted effort now to go domestic everything in China. But until companies are pushed to the limit like Huawei, there is just not the same level of urgency to developing new stuff.

Also, nobody has same level of resource as Huawei and can put out so many new products in 3 year time frame.

 

[tphuang]

To be crystal clear, I've not said anything about that 'current gap' not shrinking. I am not saying that Chinese companies will not catch up to leading edge.

also, we need to be careful about catching up vs having good enough. In some cases, good enough may be sufficient

 

[Michaelsinodef]

Just because they say things that disagree with your worldview doesn't mean they're lying.

We have examples of SMIC basically hiding their 14nm and below progress, if you're working in a foreign company, the possibility for them to lie when you talk with them isn't out of the question.

Think about what you're saying - you imply that you know this better than the industry practitioners. As well, you are effectively saying that they are not up to date on the best way to develop software. So you are saying that they can catch up better but that they don't know the best way to do it? Are they good or are they bad? Make up your mind.

I don't know, and don't have a problem with admitting it.
They could be behind when it comes to best practices and the likes, and so adopting/improving their practice could result in them catching up faster. If they are up to date, it could be the case that more experience could lead to a bit faster time, or it could be the case that they get more resources to hire and train more people to work on it.
In other words (going with them being truthful about 10 years), it can be the case that such an estimation is based on current capabilities, and capabilities can grow and improve within the next 10 years, resulting in them reaching the goal faster than they thought.

What specifically is the disruption that faces analog chips that you see today? Simply waving your hands and saying "something is out there, I don't know what, but its there" is not evidence - you might as well argue that there are aliens just because we can't prove there aren't aliens.

I don't know, some AI/software whatever, that can help improve their productivity? Completely dismissing this possibility is just short sighted.
Even not going that way, what if Dassault Systems CATIA got hacked and lots of their source code were leaked? With that access, it could be the case that productivity could rise?

 

[FriedRiceNSpice]

Anyone who's done analog semi design will tell you that it is very different from logic semi design and it takes years to train a new analog semi engineer.

A good analogy of looking at this is the number of dentists in China - as of 2020 there are 16 dentists per 100k population in China - you may as well argue that "its not hard to train a dentist" until you realize that it takes 8 years to train a dentist. Like sure, it's 'not hard', but that doesn't mean you're going to catch up to a developed economy (say Taiwan in 2019 at 40 dentists per 100k population) in the next 2 years.

The framing of "hardware vs software" is an incorrect way of looking at domestication difficulty.

For many products, it is true that the software and hardware development portions of the development process cannot be looked at isolation. Development occurs in iterative cycles and it is not possible for hardware and software development to occur in parallel independently of the other across multiple cycles. However, I still believe that hardware development would still be the bottleneck for development within each check, as the requirements definition, design, prototyping, and validation phases are just that much longer for hardware than software.

I think we need to differentiate a few things here. China's software industry in general may be very well developed and have plenty of talent. We've seen with EV/AVs, the European automakers just can't develop anything. China also has the only alternatives to American tech companies when it comes to e-commerce, social media apps and search engines. What Huawei has done in the past few years is quite impressive. But for certain sectors, it could very well be the case that Chinese software makers are not putting out competitive products.

My personal experience dealing with software engineers from China was about 6 to 7 years ago when I interacted with Shanghai Gold exchange & CFFEX. I wasn't too impressed with what they did. But that could just be because high level of bureaucracy with those organizations.

The issue is distribution of talent and allocation of resources/capital. Same situation as in the US. For fields where there are both mature and readily available foreign products on the market and where the market size is largely fixed with low potential for growth, there is just no incentive to attract actually competent engineers. In fields like distributed systems, AI, and ML, China has the highest concentration of software engineering talent in the world. If the situation were to change, say if suddenly no readily available foreign alternatives to a specific product category, and opportunities emerge for Chinese firms to capture the Chinese market, then the available resources and talent would enable a Chinese alternative to be rapidly developed.

 

[tphuang]

another hit piece from HW before HR

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美国发起科技战的最大教训，就是我们必须全产业链都占领，只要给他们留个口子都会咬我们。

最早，美国人主要卡军工，认为在经济上我们和他们没有什么可比性的。所以什么可以军用激光陀螺仪、超级计算机、军用发动机通通不卖。甚至卡GPS信号、卡各种军民两用的普通材料。当时中国气象局买个超级计算机做天气预报都要有专门一个美国公司人员看管，用机任务都要他们审核，下班锁起来。
而后面美国人的策略是发现中国突破一块就放开一块，让他们成熟产品和我们新品竞争。一些人经常问为什么我们生产出来就要低价卖，大家打得头破血流？其实不是我们低价，而是绝大多数欧美日看中国产品出来就大降价准备绞杀我们新品而已；最终大家进入价格战逻辑。

就是明确纯民用产品，美国人要卡你也一样卡。比如商业大飞机方面，美国就不允许白俄罗斯总统专机起飞，不允许伊朗维护其波音机队等。如果中国没有大飞机，那么有一天美国人一定会卡的。我们的商发美国人都绞杀。
民用就是医药这种人道产品，当金融被卡时候，伊朗都进口不了疫苗，那时候大家谴责美国人，但是美国人假装听不见；前几年那时候伊朗确实遭了苦难。
因此民用大飞机、医药、医疗器材这种也要进入和掌握，除了能赚钱，另一个就是因为美国人卡脖子时候他们不会分人道不人道、要不要讲道德等。

实际上过去一些工具软件、美国人也用起来做绞杀手段，比如哈工大被禁用matlab。而包括开源代码只要在美国人手里都是风险的，伊朗和俄罗斯就不能访问美国人控制的开源社区。
所以，开源我们也要自己控制。为什么OpenHarmony系统要由中国的原子基金会控制源代码社区呢，就是要防止美国人搞伊朗和俄罗斯一样卡我们源代码。

而美国人卡中国最狠的就是卡半导体行业，最先卡芯片，不仅仅不允许军工用，比如发现中国超级计算机超过他们就禁止英特尔芯片；慢慢的中国的芯片设计起来了，海思甚至搞出全球第一款5G SOC。当美国人发现卡不了芯片后，就开始卡代工，卡不了代工就卡半导体设备，发现卡半导体设备不够就施压日本人卡材料。
也就是说，美国人只要发现你哪个环节落后，他就会卡哪个环节。那么反过来，我们就必须全产业链应对，美国人哪个领域还领先，我们就必须补齐短板。包括：半导体领域、系统软件、工具软件、ERP与数据库软件、航空发动机、高端数控机床、医疗设备与医药、实验室工具与仪表等中国目前还落后西方阵营的东西。只有把这些技术拿下，中国才能有效改变被卡脖子和跨越中等收入陷阱的问题。

For most of us, this is probably preaching to the converted. But I do think certain people in China probably did not appreciate how far tech war against China could go, because they were not around in 90s when any super computer they buy from America had to be put in a separate room that was watched over by someone from that American company and locked down at end of the day. No joke. That was part of the reason Loongson started

Remember that sanctions against Syria was not lifted even when Syria had an earthquake.

In terms of world economy, I think the medium/long term direction is quite clear. China will be forced to develop lower cost domestic alternatives to everything and then sell it to rest of the world and make the domestic market unavailable to those companies that sanctioned them.

 

[Philister]

Software is the last thing China needs to worry about, it is the easiest and quickest hurdle to overcome. If there is an incentive, China has the software engineering talent to produce domestic equivalents within a year or two. Hardware takes much longer.

It’s quite easy to build a workable software, it’s extremely hard to build a functional software ecosystem , but I do agree that hardware is much more important for now, it’s impossible to reach software independent with US chips after all