Chinese Economics Thread

[fatzergling]

When hospital & medical services, college education, child care aren't made in China...


View attachment 113866

These damn rent seekers are gonna bring down everybody without any intervention

 

[Michael90]

National Audit Office. For auditing any wasteful spending.

The national supervisory commission, the central commission for discipline inspection, and the anti graft agency of the Chinese communist party together investigate and prosecute bribery and corruption from local to central government.

The supreme people's procuratorate used to handle most investigation and prosecution a few years ago but such responsibility has transferred to the 3 agencies above.

Then how come they don't pick on these huge wasteful programs and grafts early on? Especially those that go on for years?

 

[Michael90]

"Taiwan has no semiconductor industry since it doesn't use any Taiwanese semiconductor tools and only designs a few semiconductors. all it does is buy and use foreign semiconductor tools making foreign semiconductor designs. merely a semiconductor sweatshop."

To be honest you cant compare a small western allied territory like Taiwan with a large western rival country like China. Taiwan faces no threat from the U.S/West, so they can freely use any products and technology from their ally in the U.S/West without any worries of a ban one day, so they have less need of building everything they can on their own, but China does face a real threat of full sanctions or even full embargo one day in the future. The moment Taiwan conflict flares between China and Taiwan you can be sure 100% sure there will be full sanctions placed on China by the U.S and subsequently the West and Japan/South Korea etc will have to follow. So yes @abenomics12345 is right, China is in an unique situation unlike any other country(same boat with Russia,Iran,North Korea). So better be prepared.

 

[Michaelsinodef]

Then how come they don't pick on these huge wasteful programs and grafts early on? Especially those that go on for years?

Simply because it's sometimes quite hard to spot in advance whether or not a project is wasteful / doesn't live up to it's expectations?

In general, things aren't that easy and straightforward, so even if there offices or commissions to catch graft, wasteful spending etc. They can fail / let stuff slip through.

To be honest you cant compare a small western allied territory like Taiwan with a large western rival country like China. Taiwan faces no threat from the U.S/West, so they can freely use any products and technology from their ally in the U.S/West without any worries of a ban one day, so they have less need of building everything they can on their own, but China does face a real threat of full sanctions or even full embargo one day in the future. The moment Taiwan conflict flares between China and Taiwan you can be sure 100% sure there will be full sanctions placed on China by the U.S and subsequently the West and Japan/South Korea etc will have to follow. So yes @abenomics12345 is right, China is in an unique situation unlike any other country(same boat with Russia,Iran,North Korea). So better be prepared.

If the Taiwan conflict flares up, Chinese companies will be hit with sanctions and bans sure, but Taiwan will be able to produce shit and definitely not be able to export chips lol.

And the west is hugely reliant on TSMC and Taiwan when it comes to chips.

 

[resistance]

Simply because it's sometimes quite hard to spot in advance whether or not a project is wasteful / doesn't live up to it's expectations?

In general, things aren't that easy and straightforward, so even if there offices or commissions to catch graft, wasteful spending etc. They can fail / let stuff slip through.


If the Taiwan conflict flares up, Chinese companies will be hit with sanctions and bans sure, but Taiwan will be able to produce shit and definitely not be able to export chips lol.

And the west is hugely reliant on TSMC and Taiwan when it comes to chips.

The thing is if china can fully made domestically advance node chip, Taiwan economies will collapsed right after china make Cuban style embargoes and reunification will realized.
Western always said china trying to take Taiwan because of chip, but reality is china is advancing on chip to take Taiwan.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

To be honest you cant compare a small western allied territory like Taiwan with a large western rival country like China. Taiwan faces no threat from the U.S/West, so they can freely use any products and technology from their ally in the U.S/West without any worries of a ban one day, so they have less need of building everything they can on their own, but China does face a real threat of full sanctions or even full embargo one day in the future. The moment Taiwan conflict flares between China and Taiwan you can be sure 100% sure there will be full sanctions placed on China by the U.S and subsequently the West and Japan/South Korea etc will have to follow. So yes @abenomics12345 is right, China is in an unique situation unlike any other country(same boat with Russia,Iran,North Korea). So better be prepared.

The moment Taiwan conflict flares, PGMs, no fly zone and blockade may also have an influence on service availability. TSMC produces ~50% of chips by value and ~25% by volume, most of whose customers are in the west.

The other part is why I ask about what are the wear parts of a robot. If the wear parts are easy to replace, replacement is infrequent, and there's a 40% domestic market share, then sanctions aren't a threat because the existing robots can still be 3rd party serviced and then replaced with domestic robots when they finally do wear out.

 

[theorlonator]

Does the Taiwanese economy face risk of full blocking sanctions? Tell me, what is the worth of TSMC without ASML machines?

Actually yeah in a full fledged war scenario, they'll have a lot more industries to worry about than semiconductors. I can see this media obsession with semiconductors seems to have gotten to you.

 

[abenomics12345]

The moment Taiwan conflict flares, PGMs, no fly zone and blockade may also have an influence on service availability. TSMC produces ~50% of chips by value and ~25% by volume, most of whose customers are in the west.

The other part is why I ask about what are the wear parts of a robot. If the wear parts are easy to replace, replacement is infrequent, and there's a 40% domestic market share, then sanctions aren't a threat because the existing robots can still be 3rd party serviced and then replaced with domestic robots when they finally do wear out.

Industrial automation is rarely just about the physical robotics but also the software. Specifically the machine vision software/cameras/algorithm provided by Cognex and Keyence. The moment they turn that off is the moment your factories stop working. This is an area where domestic players are even further behind. How do I know? I visited them both.

Additionally even if domestic parts can be made a lot of the CNCs and machine tools used to make these parts are still imported. How do I know? They told me.

Th critical difference is that the Chinese market is big enough to domesticate everything and have it be world class which is why there is the drive to do so. This is absolutely happening but as I’ve been very clear, this is a conversation to be had in 2025/2027.

I really don’t care how badly the Taiwanese economy functions but “at least we’re not as bad as them” or “they’ll be impacted worse off” is not a solution to your own problems.

The Taiwanese economy will be likely a zero in case of AR - the question is how the Chinese economy does in the aftermath where it will be full on decoupling from the West. That is what I’m interested in better understanding.

 

[Deleted member 24525]

Industrial automation is rarely just about the physical robotics but also the software. Specifically the machine vision software/cameras/algorithm provided by Cognex and Keyence. The moment they turn that off is the moment your factories stop working. This is an area where domestic players are even further behind. How do I know? I visited them both.

Additionally even if domestic parts can be made a lot of the CNCs and machine tools used to make these parts are still imported. How do I know? They told me.

Th critical difference is that the Chinese market is big enough to domesticate everything and have it be world class which is why there is the drive to do so. This is absolutely happening but as I’ve been very clear, this is a conversation to be had in 2025/2027.

I really don’t care how badly the Taiwanese economy functions but “at least we’re not as bad as them” or “they’ll be impacted worse off” is not a solution to your own problems.

What exactly do you mean when you say that this is a conversation to be had 2-4 years from now? That it will take that long to show more substantial results?

 

[Blitzo]

Industrial automation is rarely just about the physical robotics but also the software. Specifically the machine vision software/cameras/algorithm provided by Cognex and Keyence. The moment they turn that off is the moment your factories stop working. This is an area where domestic players are even further behind. How do I know? I visited them both.

Additionally even if domestic parts can be made a lot of the CNCs and machine tools used to make these parts are still imported. How do I know? They told me.

Th critical difference is that the Chinese market is big enough to domesticate everything and have it be world class which is why there is the drive to do so. This is absolutely happening but as I’ve been very clear, this is a conversation to be had in 2025/2027.

I really don’t care how badly the Taiwanese economy functions but “at least we’re not as bad as them” or “they’ll be impacted worse off” is not a solution to your own problems.

If you want to flag everything in this thread in context of how China would fare in wartime in context of being cut off to everything, then that's fine but it is your obligation to flag it as such.

Do not assume that others are operating on the same assumptions as you.