why bring up sanctions in an armed reunification scenario? It is off-topic.
Chinese Economics Thread
- Thread starter Norfolk
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"Taiwan has no semiconductor industry since it doesn't use any Taiwanese semiconductor tools and only designs a few semiconductors. all it does is buy and use foreign semiconductor tools making foreign semiconductor designs. merely a semiconductor sweatshop."
Does the Taiwanese economy face risk of full blocking sanctions? Tell me, what is the worth of TSMC without ASML machines?
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If you haven’t realized. Economic warfare is the new normal.
We have dedicated thread for that. Stick to the topic
I think the point I was trying to make is not just the robot density part itself, but where we go from here. Robot density & domestic % is a separate topic. I don't have any issue whether they are made in China or abroad.
The question is AI robots. It will be interesting for me to see how quickly we can have robots that can replace certain low cost manufacturing jobs that moved out of China due to rising labor costs. The importance of AI is a huge topic. China has clearly taken a different path here with AI. Maybe out of necessity due to data privacy laws and such. I'm not sure. But the computing resource for AI in China is focused right now at making businesses more efficient whether that's through automated call centers or developing drugs or smart mining. The great fear of many people in America is just having robots replace humans in many menial labor jobs. Now if we actually have smarter robots that can make t-shirts or toys efficiently, what does that do for China's industries?
As for HW before HR himself, he is just an Internet Armchair QB with a bunch of followers. I think sometimes he provides interesting insights that I post here. Not whether he is necessarily right, but different topics that may be interesting to consider like AI robots and the usage of AI for Chinese economy
a few more hits from him
1st, China/Russia economic integration. Russian/European relations aren't going to recover for many years. How many years do we need before Russian economic infrastructure is completely aligned with China. That even if Russian relationship with Europe recovers, China will not loose its economic grip on Russia. Whether just in terms of import of resources, farming and such. Or with Russia fully dependent and switched over to Chinese technology. Keep in mind that Russia weapons manufacturing has now ramped up and no longer seems to be dependent on Western technology. So China looks to be supplying a lot of what Russia needs. Once China fully takes over Russian market for electronics, ICT, automotive, machinery and software, can we reach a point where having Europeans back in the Russian market won't cause Chinese companies to noticeably loose market share.
The other tract is China vs Korean industries. If we just look at semiconductors, that's China's major import sector from Korea. Korean semiconductor export is down 36% YoY. Part of that is just the huge drop in consumer electronics demand around the world and drop in memory chip pricing. Question is how much of that memory chip export is permanent and same with "mature" sector chips that SMIC is now capable of producing (discussed 28nm DDIC product in semi thread). How much is the rise of Chinese semiconductor and LCD/OLED production causing a permanent fall in Samsung fortunes for example.
The question is AI robots. It will be interesting for me to see how quickly we can have robots that can replace certain low cost manufacturing jobs that moved out of China due to rising labor costs. The importance of AI is a huge topic. China has clearly taken a different path here with AI. Maybe out of necessity due to data privacy laws and such. I'm not sure. But the computing resource for AI in China is focused right now at making businesses more efficient whether that's through automated call centers or developing drugs or smart mining. The great fear of many people in America is just having robots replace humans in many menial labor jobs. Now if we actually have smarter robots that can make t-shirts or toys efficiently, what does that do for China's industries?
As for HW before HR himself, he is just an Internet Armchair QB with a bunch of followers. I think sometimes he provides interesting insights that I post here. Not whether he is necessarily right, but different topics that may be interesting to consider like AI robots and the usage of AI for Chinese economy
a few more hits from him
These are two other points he seem to constantly track
1st, China/Russia economic integration. Russian/European relations aren't going to recover for many years. How many years do we need before Russian economic infrastructure is completely aligned with China. That even if Russian relationship with Europe recovers, China will not loose its economic grip on Russia. Whether just in terms of import of resources, farming and such. Or with Russia fully dependent and switched over to Chinese technology. Keep in mind that Russia weapons manufacturing has now ramped up and no longer seems to be dependent on Western technology. So China looks to be supplying a lot of what Russia needs. Once China fully takes over Russian market for electronics, ICT, automotive, machinery and software, can we reach a point where having Europeans back in the Russian market won't cause Chinese companies to noticeably loose market share.
The other tract is China vs Korean industries. If we just look at semiconductors, that's China's major import sector from Korea. Korean semiconductor export is down 36% YoY. Part of that is just the huge drop in consumer electronics demand around the world and drop in memory chip pricing. Question is how much of that memory chip export is permanent and same with "mature" sector chips that SMIC is now capable of producing (discussed 28nm DDIC product in semi thread). How much is the rise of Chinese semiconductor and LCD/OLED production causing a permanent fall in Samsung fortunes for example.
TSMC does not just depend on ASML lithography tools. It depends on deposition, etch, ion implant, oven, wafer clean, gas recovery, waste abatement, etc. machines, each of which has multiple critical wear parts that need to be serviced regularly, each of which has critical chemical inputs, none of which Taiwan makes.
What are the wear parts of a standard industrial robot? How often do they need to be serviced? How much of the service depends on foreign IP+foreign made parts?
You’ve not answered my question. Answer my question first. Is the Taiwanese economy at risk of facing sanctions that would prevent it from acquiring that laundry list of products/services?
The chance of sanctions on China are equal to or lower than the chance of a PGM through TSMC's roofs and/or a no fly zone/blockade that would indeed prevent them from acquiring said products and services.
When hospital & medical services, college education, child care aren't made in China...
