Chinese Economics Thread

tphuang

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China's April trade data
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interesting to see how they broke things out.
For example, Russia & China now up to over $19B a month, which is more than their trade with Germany
The Taiwan trade is so imbalanced. They need to get this fixed up. No reason to buy so much goods when Taiwan pursues an anti-mainland policy
They do more trade with Brazil than any European country except for Germany
They have a a humongous trade surplus against Netherands ($35B in first 4 months exported vs $4.3B imported)
They even broke out trades with South Africa, which is not that far off Italy
They export more to Africa than Japan or Korea
 

56860

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ysjoeqxcntya1.jpg
 

Strangelove

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These maps show how far China’s freight railways are stretching across Asia​

Published Tue, May 9 20237:10 PM EDT

  • It’s all part of Beijing’s Belt and Road initiative, a complex network of infrastructure projects connecting China to its trading partners.
  • The projects include high-speed passenger trains.
  • While it’s difficult to verify how operational all the rail lines are, official reports offer a glimpse at how China’s Belt and Road ambitions are panning out.


BEIJING — In the last two years, China has announced the opening of new freight train lines, while cross-border railways have become a feature in President
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’s meetings with regional leaders.

It’s all part of Beijing’s Belt and Road initiative, a complex network of infrastructure projects connecting China to its trading partners.

Here’s a look at where the rail lines are being built across the Asian continent.

The projects include high-speed passenger trains.

In April, China’s national rail ticketing app opened online bookings for a 10.5-hour train ride from Yunnan province to the capital of Laos. If all goes as planned, that route will one day connect to the Thai capital of Bangkok and Phnom Penh, Cambodia’s riverside capital.

In the last six months, China also opened freight train lines to
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and
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according to state media.
Far in the north, China last year
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between the remote province of Heilongjiang and Russia. New rail routes to
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are underway, according to state media.

Those freight lines are in addition to China’s relatively older rail network through central Asia —
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While it’s difficult to verify how operational all the rail lines are, official reports offer a glimpse at how China’s Belt and Road ambitions are panning out.

CNBC analyzed the reports to create the following schematic diagrams of the railways, built and planned, by region:

China Rail - Southern Routes

Planned and built railways in the region south of China, based on official reports and state media.
CNBC

China Rail - Southeastern Routes

Planned and built railways in the region southeast of China, based on official reports and state media.
CNBC

China Rail - North - Russia

Built railways across the northern Chinese border with Russia, based on official reports and state media.
CNBC

China Rail - North - Mongolia

Planned and built railways across the northern Chinese border with Mongolia, based on official reports and state media.
CNBC

China Rail - Western Routes

Built railways in the region to the west of China, based on official reports and state media.

China’s Belt and Road Initiative was launched in 2013 at the beginning of Xi’s presidency. The program is widely seen as Beijing’s effort to boost global influence through the development of rail, sea and other transportation routes running from Asia to Europe and Africa.
“Splitting Europe from the U.S., at least to the extent possible, is an important foreign policy objective for China and deeper economic integration fostered by stronger rail linkages would help,” said Stephen Olson, senior research fellow at the Hinrich Foundation.

Similarly, “part of China’s motivation in constructing rail links in ASEAN is to place China more at the heart of regional trade,” he said, referring to the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations bloc.

Olson said that while rail could be “game changing” for a landlocked economy such as Laos, the onus is also on the destination country to develop logistics and other infrastructure to fully utilize the new rail lines for trade.

One-third of China’s trade​

Beijing says trade with Belt and Road countries accounts for about one-third of China’s overall imports and exports. In the first quarter, that trade grew by 16.8% from a year ago — slower than the 19.4% pace for all of last year, according to official figures.

The actual boost to trade from the rail lines is difficult to gauge, said Francoise Huang, senior economist at Allianz Trade. She pointed out that transporting goods by rail is considerably cheaper than air, and faster than by road and sea.

She said her assessment of reports indicates the rail lines are being used more to transport Chinese exports to other countries, rather than imports into China.
 

mossen

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Great article summing up South Korea's stunning reverse vis-a-vis China.

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In just five years South Korea has gone from selling over US$55 billion more to China than it imported to recording a trade deficit of over US$5 billion at the start of 2023, with an analyst pointing to its shrinking “technological comparative advantage”.

In comparative terms, China is now responsible for Korea's biggest trade deficit among all partners.

Chemical raw materials, batteries and storage batteries, computers and industrial electrical equipment were the products that South Korea had the largest trade deficit with China in combined figures for January and February.

This is what moving up the value-chain looks like. It all happened very fast. Just five years. It isn't just Europe and the US that have to be worried. Perhaps the biggest losers are advanced East Asian countries. China is often best in areas where they previously held their largest comparative advantage.
 

56860

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Great article summing up South Korea's stunning reverse vis-a-vis China.

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In comparative terms, China is now responsible for Korea's biggest trade deficit among all partners.



This is what moving up the value-chain looks like. It all happened very fast. Just five years. It isn't just Europe and the US that have to be worried. Perhaps the biggest losers are advanced East Asian countries. China is often best in areas where they previously held their largest comparative advantage.
The biggest losers will be countries that depend heavily on high tech exports. China is coming after all of their market share. Basically SK, Japan and Germany.

Taiwan can still save itself through reunification.
 

supercat

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China's foreign trade has reached an inflection point: it now exports more to BRI countries than America, Europe, and Japan combined. In the figure below, the blue line represents China's exports to BRI countries, while the yellow line represents exports to America, Europe, and Japan. Notice that the data are taken from Wind, China’s biggest financial data provider.
 

FairAndUnbiased

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The biggest losers will be countries that depend heavily on high tech exports. China is coming after all of their market share. Basically SK, Japan and Germany.

Taiwan can still save itself through reunification.
well, 'high tech'. I think only Japan out of those can be considered truly high tech due to how many Cold War era upstream techs they hold.

Germany doesn't have much in aerospace, leading edge semiconductor (only Infineon which is an analog/automotive supplier), semiconductor equipment, NEV, etc.

SK doesn't have much in upstream tech like heavy chemicals, gas turbine, machine tool, industrial robot, semiconductor equipment, etc. They buy their tools and chemicals from foreigners which is why Japanese sanctions on semiconductors were devastating until China stepped in.

All 3 don't have software which is growing to become one of the most important sectors in the world.
 
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