Chinese Economics Thread

[tphuang]

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This is just interesting, Baofeng energy announced yesterday that it started work on the largest ever olefin plant in the world with annual production of 3 million tons. Of which, 400k ton will be produced from green hydrogen powered by wind/solar. I'm not clear how much of that is just hydrogen, but this is possibly the largest ever green hydrogen project. Promises to save 6.31 million ton of carbon vs all coal solution. Other projects I've seen like Sinopec's 30k ton a year green hydrogen project only promises to save 1.4 million ton of carbon. So this is quite huge in hydrogen production and carbon emissions saving. Even so, most of the project is still produced by coal.

Overall, Baofeng here aims to produce 5.7 million t of Olefin a year by the time all of its plants are finished.

I actually have never heard of Baofeng or Olefins before today, but it's fascinating to read this. Looks like Chinese fossil fuel companies are increasingly getting into chemical plants and starting to use some renewable energy along the way.

While startup cost is higher, the eventual savings from green H2 should make it more economical than even coal. After all, it sources domestically made solar/wind/electrolysis technology and produces electricity for almost nothing. There is also no pollution to worry about.

 

[tphuang]

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This is just interesting, Baofeng energy announced yesterday that it started work on the largest ever olefin plant in the world with annual production of 3 million tons. Of which, 400k ton will be produced from green hydrogen powered by wind/solar. I'm not clear how much of that is just hydrogen, but this is possibly the largest ever green hydrogen project. Promises to save 6.31 million ton of carbon vs all coal solution. Other projects I've seen like Sinopec's 30k ton a year green hydrogen project only promises to save 1.4 million ton of carbon. So this is quite huge in hydrogen production and carbon emissions saving. Even so, most of the project is still produced by coal.

Overall, Baofeng here aims to produce 5.7 million t of Olefin a year by the time all of its plants are finished.

I actually have never heard of Baofeng or Olefins before today, but it's fascinating to read this. Looks like Chinese fossil fuel companies are increasingly getting into chemical plants and starting to use some renewable energy along the way.

While startup cost is higher, the eventual savings from green H2 should make it more economical than even coal. After all, it sources domestically made solar/wind/electrolysis technology and produces electricity for almost nothing. There is also no pollution to worry about.

Ordos economic plan for 2023 and I think you can work out similar economic plan for rest of Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang

（一）构筑世界级能源产业。大力发展氢能储能产业，建设

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产能3万吨，储能容量达到100万千瓦以上。

（二）构筑世界级煤化工产业。加快现代煤化工产业示范区建设，推动宝丰

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与煤化工耦合、荣信甲醇制烯烃等项目建设。

（三）构筑世界级新能源产业。优化产业布局，构建集能源生产、装备制造、应用示范于一体的“风光氢储车”全链条产业集群。氢能方面，推动捷

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电堆项目投产，瑞驱氢能装备等项目开工。

So here, they are utilizing their huge solar/wind potential to develop hydrogen and energy storage base. First, start with 30k t of green hydrogen production (I believe this is just the Sinopec project), but a whole lot more is coming next couple of years. Many project approvals.

They are a major coal producer and they want to transition from coal to chemical industry. So the first step of that is to build chemical plant that uses mostly coal, but some green hydrogen. Over time with higher emission goals and cheaper renewable cost, they can transition the feedstock to mostly hydrogen.

it's interesting that with projects like this, the formerly poorer but largely spacious provinces will become major energy/chemical hubs, possibly leveling the income gap between coastal regions and western provinces.

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

 

[CMP]

The lack of 2021 and 2022 data for Japan likely conceals a massive collapse. Likewise with lack of 2022 data for India and EU.

 

[tphuang]

On manufacturing front this is a good chart of china's industrial breakdown

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1634561280898990081

See how big chemical is? Same size as car industry. That's why these moves to secure cheap energy and feedstock is so important.

 

[horse]

1. People in the outside world, generally know nothing about China. Should we be surprised by this chart? Maybe. If we follow China closely, then no. Those people think China is a threat, because if we look at this chart, they think it is still 2010. Seriously. Their attitude that China is a threat, means they are at 2010 on this chart. It seems like kind of basic, that when a country moves up the value chain, like China is doing, the value added improves. But those people believes it is still 2010 and China never moved up the value added chain, like China was still making paper fans and back-scratchers. This forum's best example of that, is that sleepy-lawyer guy, lol.

2. The other thing about this chart, is the trend or trajectory of things to come. Then the Americans have these harebrained ideas that a trade war will reverse these trends, and a semiconductor war will reverse these trends. How? Then all the allies are supposed to be onboard. What difference would that make? Then those people, would repeat the same line!

 

[horse]

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The further along we go on the value added scale, such as high technology production, the more value added is being created and actualized, in terms of know-how and in terms of profit.

Very, very basic stuff, and the white people, like they have no clue.

Now we get to the truly amazing part. China learned all this stuff from the West, particularly America.

It's like the teacher is telling the student, that they learned everything wrong (because now they are succeeding, and being more creative than the textbook, bust a move).

Then they say me and my friends (aka allies) will come beat you up.

Well, this ain't the streets, so got to speak to them for one round.

Then go fuck yourself.

 

[Eventine]

The percentage of domestic consumption in GDP need to boost to a much higher level，as export to West will getting harder and harder in foreseeable future

View attachment 108818

Not going to happen as long as 80% of house hold wealth is in real estate. That bubble needs to be popped and without property taxes, it'll be very difficult to do.

Having said that, exports to the West can be replaced by exports to the Global South; China can, should, and is building up those countries as markets.

 

[supercat]

Interestingly, while the share of Chines manufacturing is increasing globally (as big as the US and EU combined), domestically its share of Chinese GDP is actually decreasing, indicating that the service sector is playing an increasingly important role in Chinese economy. Notice that the second figure is somewhat misleading. It compares the share of manufacturing to each country's GDP. It's not meant to compare the total volume of each country's manufacturing.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1634468915836485633

 

[horse]

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Kind of interesting.

This same bank, operating in China in a joint venture, doing fine.

Just get them to run it.

People in Brentwood, Californica, lining up in a bank run. Kind of neat. Brentwood was the neighbourhood where OJ Simpson used to live, before he went to live somewhere else, according to a court orders.