Chinese Economics Thread

CMP

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Is this really that sensible? Do they really need to buy dollar bonds?
The extent to which they need to buy dollar bonds is likely equivalent to the extent to which they bring in dollars from exports settled in USD (minus imports settled in USD, which are significantly lesser and shrinking anyways). They make more dollars from USD-settled trade than they could possibly spend exhaustively on commodities, gold, gas, etc. without driving up the prices. It basically comes down to simple optimization. Hence why there are all these efforts to have their trade settled in a combination of renminbi AND trade partner domestic currencies (a necessary quid quo pro with their trade partners).

Honestly, any of them that are dumb/naive enough to get their family fortune stolen totally deserve it.
 
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CMP

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I can imagine it, but I live in Canada, or USa lite. So even if that were to happen, Canada's triopoly of wireless services will charge $1000/month for it and it will be slower than everywhere else. Service will also only become available 10 years after everyone.
On top of that, they'll sell 5G and market it as 6G. Most of the population is too dumb to understand they're being conned.
 

Eventine

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Local Chinese (including much of the Chinese urban elite), due to their lack of international exposure outside of tourism and the media, really do feel sheltered in many ways. This is a great example where again, they thought in terms of isolated national stereotypes ("Switzerland has always been neutral"), rather than the broad sweep of history and geopolitics.

Where is Switzerland? Northern Europe. Who controls it? Northern Europeans. What does it specialize in? International banking - most of it in dollars. In which circles do its political and economic elites run? Western circles.

Why in the world, then, would you assume Switzerland would remain neutral in a conflict that involves the West, on one side, and Russia or China, on the other? The Swiss count themselves among the West. The reason they stayed strictly "neutral" during the two World Wars was because those were wars within Europe and the Swiss were actually sympathetic to both sides. But during the Cold War, they leaned more towards the West; and after it, they have consistently put themselves behind the liberal, democratic world order led by the US.

Northern Europeans like the Swiss talk a great game, but at the end of the day, they are pragmatic. They will not violate their self-interest, and their self-interest is, more so than anything else, a world system dominated by European peoples. Their "neutrality" in this sense is that they're willing to play both sides as much as they can, but when push comes to shove, and the US is forcing them to make a hard choice, they'll inevitably side with the West.

Outside of China and maybe Singapore, there is no place in the world where Chinese elites can currently count on their financial interests being defended. They need to learn that, as Russians have.
 
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Biscuits

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Local Chinese (including much of the Chinese urban elite), due to their lack of international exposure outside of tourism and the media, really do feel sheltered in many ways. This is a great example where again, they thought in terms of isolated national stereotypes ("Switzerland has always been neutral"), rather than the broad sweep of history and geopolitics.

Where is Switzerland? Northern Europe. Who controls it? Northern Europeans. What does it specialize in? International banking - most of it in dollars. In which circles do its political and economic elites run? Western circles.

Why in the world, then, would you assume Switzerland would remain neutral in a conflict that involves the West, on one side, and Russia or China, on the other? The Swiss count themselves among the West. The reason they stayed strictly "neutral" during the two World Wars was because those were wars within Europe and the Swiss were actually sympathetic to both sides. But during the Cold War, they leaned more towards the West; and after it, they have consistently put themselves behind the liberal, democratic world order led by the US.

Northern Europeans like the Swiss talk a great game, but at the end of the day, they are pragmatic. They will not violate their self-interest, and their self-interest is, more so than anything else, a world system dominated by European peoples. Their "neutrality" in this sense is that they're willing to play both sides as much as they can, but when push comes to shove, and the US is forcing them to make a hard choice, they'll inevitably side with the West.

Outside of China and maybe Singapore, there is no place in the world where Chinese elites can currently count on their financial interests being defended. They need to learn that, as Russians have.
think you're reading too much into an unsourced glowie statement meant to imply corruption within America's enemies, while ignoring the astronomical corruption within their own borders.

are there like a handful of Guo Wengui alikes that have accounts in Switzerland? Probably. Are they an irrelevant drop in the ocean and in most cases already pro-western advocates? Yes.
 

luminary

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On top of that, they'll sell 5G and market it as 6G. Most of the population is too dumb to understand they're being conned.
That's amateur thinking. The real pro move is to downgrade it to 2G and brand it as 7G. ;)

Use planned obsolescence to downgrade everything a little more every year. The Ministry of Plenty will announce to the citizenry that the standard of living has risen by no less than 20 per cent over the past year. Ignorance is strength. Everybody is happy.
 

CMP

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That's amateur thinking. The real pro move is to downgrade it to 2G and brand it as 7G. ;)

Use planned obsolescence to downgrade everything a little more every year. The Ministry of Plenty will announce to the citizenry that the standard of living has risen by no less than 20 per cent over the past year. Ignorance is strength. Everybody is happy.
The ones who know the reality and facts will tend to become depressed over time anyways, so offer them discounted assisted suicide. Great profits and saves government money on end-of-life/chronic illness health care system expenses. That'll free up even more room in the budget for the imperial overlord's F35s. Win-win!
 

Topazchen

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Local Chinese (including much of the Chinese urban elite), due to their lack of international exposure outside of tourism and the media, really do feel sheltered in many ways. This is a great example where again, they thought in terms of isolated national stereotypes ("Switzerland has always been neutral"), rather than the broad sweep of history and geopolitics.

Where is Switzerland? Northern Europe. Who controls it? Northern Europeans. What does it specialize in? International banking - most of it in dollars. In which circles do its political and economic elites run? Western circles.

Why in the world, then, would you assume Switzerland would remain neutral in a conflict that involves the West, on one side, and Russia or China, on the other? The Swiss count themselves among the West. The reason they stayed strictly "neutral" during the two World Wars was because those were wars within Europe and the Swiss were actually sympathetic to both sides. But during the Cold War, they leaned more towards the West; and after it, they have consistently put themselves behind the liberal, democratic world order led by the US.

Northern Europeans like the Swiss talk a great game, but at the end of the day, they are pragmatic. They will not violate their self-interest, and their self-interest is, more so than anything else, a world system dominated by European peoples. Their "neutrality" in this sense is that they're willing to play both sides as much as they can, but when push comes to shove, and the US is forcing them to make a hard choice, they'll inevitably side with the West.

Outside of China and maybe Singapore, there is no place in the world where Chinese elites can currently count on their financial interests being defended. They need to learn that, as Russians have.
The Swiss have never been neutral
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luosifen

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CPI up, PPI down:

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China's consumer price index (CPI), a main gauge of inflation, rose 1 percent year on year in February, the National Bureau of Statistics said Thursday.

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2023-03-09 09:48:54Xinhua Editor : Li Yan
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China's producer price index (PPI), which measures costs for goods at the factory gate, went down 1.4 percent year on year in February, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said Thursday.
The decrease expanded by 0.6 percentage points from that registered in January. On a monthly basis, China's PPI remained flat in February, according to the bureau.
"As industrial enterprises' production recovery accelerated and market demand improved last month, the PPI remained flat month on month," said senior NBS statistician Dong Lijuan.
"But owing to the high comparison base from the same period last year, the year-on-year decline continued," Dong said.
Thursday's data also showed that China's consumer price index, a main gauge of inflation, rose 1 percent year on year in February.
 

tphuang

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Saw him writing this post. Kind of fascinating this is how natsec folks in China think about things. The lesson of America relenting on solar panels is that China has to achieve 80 to 90% market dominance and crowd out other countries in order for Western sanctions or protectionism to not work.
垄断产业链才是最大的产业安全。从根做起,做成盘根错节一样的产业链,让离开中国环境变成不经济乃至不可能,逐步形成垄断是最有效的自卫手段。

去年美国人本来要对进口到美国的太阳能光伏板搞一个政策,就是只要以后发现是转口贸易的,不仅仅该批要高额处罚,而且要回溯三年。结果东南亚的光伏板组织厂都停止出货了,因为地球人都知道,这些光伏厂家基本上都是中国公司的马甲,就是螺丝刀工厂;要是美国人真搞关税处罚,这些公司肯定要大赔的,所以还不如不要发货美国了,反正其他地方也供不应求。
但是,整个事件最终结果不是东南亚的光伏螺丝刀工厂怂了,而是美国人怂了;因为美国企业发现没有中国企业的光伏板,美国的绿色能源就是纸上谈兵,而绿色能源属于骑虎难下了,不搞以后更被动。最终美国政府取消了拟定要出台的要处罚光伏板贸易转口的政策,因为他们没有供应了,产业链被中国垄断了;美国人恨之入骨又徒呼奈何。这就是垄断了产业链的厉害。
其实中国还垄断了美国抗生素和多种维生素市场,要是中国断了,美国人连这些基本药品买都买不到。你看美国人在喊要这些东西加税吗?没有的。

当前,美国人开始对中国造船业垂涎欲滴,蠢蠢欲动到处抹黑和放风。原因就是一艘055大概造价60亿人民币左右,2023年的我方军费算起来可以造258艘左右,而美国下一代驱逐舰DDG大概34亿美元,今年美国军费只能造252艘。美国军费数倍中国,结果造船业居然还不如中国。所以美国人就疯狗一样咬中国造船业。
当前中国造船业大概占全球吨位的一半,日韩占一半。由于日韩还有40%多份额,所以估计美国人是认为可以类似打压中国5G一样打压造船业,才口出狂言。因此,造船业如果干得像光伏一样,占据了全球80-90%份额,那么中国造船业就是世界的经济底座之一,没有人会来鸡蛋碰石头了,碰了自己边缘化。

还有半导体芯片,假如我们围住山脚,把中低端垄断,干到别人干都会亏就中国可以盈利,那么中国就可以垄断这个行业。由于每个计算机、手机、汽车不可能都是高端芯片,还要更多中低端的,美国人卡住高端,我们卡住中低端,自然就战略平衡了。

对一些产业链的垄断,一些人老担心说别人留点活路,这典型杞人忧天了。能和我们扳手腕的都是欧美日韩等经济体,一个发展中国家网民去担心发达国家的活路,这不是笑话吗?

总体上,中国经济要持续发展一批垄断性行业,比如动力电池,中低端半导体,无人机,打到对方没有市场竞争力为止
kind of funny that his view is that China has to achieve similar level of dominance in shipbuilding, drones, low/medium end semiconductor, power battery and such like it has done in solar.

There are other ones obviously like green hydrogen, quantum computing and such. We will see.
 
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