Chinese Economics Thread

Godzilla

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China has a number of dedicated/freight and coal rail lines the Daqin line goes east west through Shanxi and Shaanxi to the Bohai Sea and there's the new Haoji line that goes North South from Inner Mongolia to Jiangxi passing through Shanxi and Shaanxi.

The Haoji line is built to bypass existing coal transport routes that go via coastal cities by ship and reduces the transit time from 20 days by sea to 3 days!

So I don't think the sweeping statement "You don't have that in China" is factual!
Yeah the hard infrastructure is either there or being built, but not the contract models. It is hard enough to be competitive for the Inner Mongolia and shanxi coal against the Indonesian etc imports at the southern provinces, let alone where the power plants have to competitively bid the supply agreements to avoid kickbacks to the procurement people. There are some long term contracts but the bulk of the supply contracts are dominated by trading companies. they are gonna pick the cheapest suppliers to the location and I am sorry but the imports are just cheaper, and the transportation infrastructure also favours them!
It works when the imported coal and ore is stockpiled at the port then railed to the users, but it won’t have high volumes due to lower distance travelled. I mean most of the coal chemical plants are already local to Inner Mongolia and shanxi etc and even if they stopped trucking the cargo volume for those are gonna be low cause of the low distance travelled.
As I said it’s not the railways fault.
 

tphuang

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If you want to see why it would be very hard for Western countries to compete against China in green hydrogen in the future.


Here is an example of hydrogen infrastructure being dismantled in Europe because there is no state support for it. I feel like the initial EV buildout in China was very similar. It was probably quite costly. BYD wasn't all the profitable at the time with its DM models and BEV models. But over time, technology became mature and now EVs are blossoming. It's kind of naive to think you can develop new technologies without some long term investments in the beginning.
 

hkbc

Junior Member
Yeah the hard infrastructure is either there or being built, but not the contract models. It is hard enough to be competitive for the Inner Mongolia and shanxi coal against the Indonesian etc imports at the southern provinces, let alone where the power plants have to competitively bid the supply agreements to avoid kickbacks to the procurement people. There are some long term contracts but the bulk of the supply contracts are dominated by trading companies. they are gonna pick the cheapest suppliers to the location and I am sorry but the imports are just cheaper, and the transportation infrastructure also favours them!
It works when the imported coal and ore is stockpiled at the port then railed to the users, but it won’t have high volumes due to lower distance travelled. I mean most of the coal chemical plants are already local to Inner Mongolia and shanxi etc and even if they stopped trucking the cargo volume for those are gonna be low cause of the low distance travelled.
As I said it’s not the railways fault.

China's annual coal production is equivalent to the next 5 largest producers and is roughly 50% of the world total

In 2021

China produced 85.15 exajoules of coal and consumed 86.17 exajoules of coal, Importing 6.54 exajoules of coal (it also exports coal, hence these numbers don't align!)

Using Indonesia as an exemplar it produced 15.15 exajoules of coal and exported 8.58 exajoules of coal (second largest exporting country after Australia) i.e. total exports represents slightly less than 10% of Chinese consumption and total production about 18% of Chinese consumption

Total world exports of coal was 33.47 exajoules or 39% of Chinese consumption i.e. domestic production would still account for 61% of consumption if China took the entirety of the World's coal exports!

Numbers are for coal as an Energy source, source of raw figures
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Regardless of any contract models, pricing differentials, stock piling, trading companies or other rationale the result is domestic Chinese coal production has a ready market simply because the demand is there and the International supply is no where near sufficient to meet said demand!

Infrastructure is put in place to allow areas where coal is plentiful (Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, Shaanxi, Imports etc) to supply regions where it isn't (Hunan, Hubei, Jiangxi etc) Note: the Haoji line doesn't go all the way to the Southern Coast, because it's easier/cheaper to bulk ship by sea! So whether the source is a coastal port or an inland mine its the necessity of moving material is what drives development of transport Infrastructure.
 

Godzilla

Junior Member
Registered Member
China's annual coal production is equivalent to the next 5 largest producers and is roughly 50% of the world total

In 2021

China produced 85.15 exajoules of coal and consumed 86.17 exajoules of coal, Importing 6.54 exajoules of coal (it also exports coal, hence these numbers don't align!)

Using Indonesia as an exemplar it produced 15.15 exajoules of coal and exported 8.58 exajoules of coal (second largest exporting country after Australia) i.e. total exports represents slightly less than 10% of Chinese consumption and total production about 18% of Chinese consumption

Total world exports of coal was 33.47 exajoules or 39% of Chinese consumption i.e. domestic production would still account for 61% of consumption if China took the entirety of the World's coal exports!

Numbers are for coal as an Energy source, source of raw figures
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


Regardless of any contract models, pricing differentials, stock piling, trading companies or other rationale the result is domestic Chinese coal production has a ready market simply because the demand is there and the International supply is no where near sufficient to meet said demand!

Infrastructure is put in place to allow areas where coal is plentiful (Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, Shaanxi, Imports etc) to supply regions where it isn't (Hunan, Hubei, Jiangxi etc) Note: the Haoji line doesn't go all the way to the Southern Coast, because it's easier/cheaper to bulk ship by sea! So whether the source is a coastal port or an inland mine its the necessity of moving material is what drives development of transport Infrastructure.
Errr that is exactly my point. Most of the domestic supplies is used insitu or within the 500km radius of the mines and ports supplements the southern demands. Despite the economic output size, if you take guangdong, zhejiang, Fujian, jiangsu and guangxi together, they still use far less coal than Inner Mongolia, shanxi and Shandong added together. Hence for the rail infrastructure, it is going to be difficult to get high ton-km for bulk goods transported compared to trucks.
Let’s take a step back and look at the discussion at hand. We are talking about Chinese rail infrastructure and learning points/ profitability vs North American model. My point is, the economic model is different hence the market growth potential for China rail is completely different to North America and it’s not for the lack of adequate infrastructure but for the other factors.
 

abenomics12345

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His not wrong though, and while there are definitely aspects of North American rail network to learn, you can't take your cake and eat it. Aside from being an end user in the "white goods/container cargo" category, I am far from a SME in that category of transport so I won't comment much. That being said, package delivery in China is far faster and cheaper than in the US lol :p If I am going to assume, with China being a manufacturing power house vs US being a consuming power house, its different game sending trucks from factory floors to a rail interchange then to a port for export or other domestic destinations for consumption vs taking goods from a port, directly onto rail and then onto distribution centers for trucks to destinations for consumption. The Chinese model, the producers are already scattered all around with the consumers, most likely in shorter than 500km circles so the trucks are going to have way more advantage than trains where as in the US model, the goods are gonna be concentrated in places like LA then shipped across the country. This is shooting off the hips using my logic so I may be wrong.

In the bulks, that is something I dabble with in both countries so I will comment. The situation is far more complex than the guy makes it out to be and its not really the fault of the Chinese rail system. Things like coal, in the US or Australia, goes straight from the mine via rail to either the port for export or powerplants that have long term contracts. You don't have that in China. Most of the power plants and steel mill contracts are bid on the market, so you never know who your end user will be. It works for places like Inner Mongolia or Xinjiang to train the coal out, but places like Shanxi and Shaanxi where most of the mines are little ones it don't make much sense. Of course its nice to run the train through and car dumper and be done with it lol. If you want to go intermodal, how are you going to switch between the rail carts and trucks and vice versa without the infrastructure built? Who is going to pay the difference for the losses in transport, and change in quality? (keep in mind the sampling is done at the end point). Going from port to end user via train is great though, since the stockpile is there and we blend it there too, but its going to be low ton-km since its usually not that far from the end user.

Its also all very good making lots of profits, but that is easy if you don't sink in the funds to upgrade or adequately maintain the lines. Especially when you spend it on stock buy back instead lol. I've seen plenty of work for roads and highway upgrades, but not very many railway maintenance work. For context, I think the US rail maintenance market is around $7 or 8 billion a year. China spends 700 billion RMB a year, though that includes capital expenditures for new lines, of which there are few in the US. Kind of says the state of affairs of where the priority is lying lol, and why so many derailments across the country is expected. I am old school and I believe these infrastructures are the lifeblood of a country and should not be measured in profit like other industries.

End of the day, my view is, the hard rail infrastructure in China is way ahead of the US, let alone third world places like India. Electrifying most of the grid will minimize the dependence of imported diesel, and if EV trucks are a thing in the future, they would continue to compete with each other making a positive impact to the economy. There is plenty to improve upon especially in the service and marketing side based on the learnings from the US system, but those learnings also have to be adapted to the completely different economies that it is servicing.

I appreciate your lengthy reply I will get back to you with a response befitting of the time you took to write this. I agree with certain parts of what you said but also think there are some parts where you've gotten wrong. Mostly...(see response to hkbc below)

I remember reading an article in the Economist about 15 years ago that said e-commerce would never take off in China because the logistics is so crap. Now you get Watermelons from Hainan in Xinjiang during the off season! Villages in Yunnan and other remote provinces selling their local produce via live streaming delivered across the country, wouldn't be much of a market for goods that spoil or never arrives or bankrupts the seller in costs!

The thing is there's money to be had scribbling 'China' articles and however, scholarly are just a point in time snapshot of a situation.

Modern China transforms at a pace that sometimes defies belief whereas the Western world barely moves so whilst those snapshots are meaningful when applied to Western Societies they date really badly when used for China.

...due to exactly what you are talking about here - China *evolves* at a pace so quickly that it is not sufficient to look at "what's happened before" and assume that "will be what happens in the future". We all know China has the most capacity for production in the world - but the growth going forward, as Xi mentioned in the speech at the Central Economics Works Conference in Dec 2022, published in Qiushi earlier this year, is consumption growth. As part of the consumption growth there needs to be the critical supply-side capacity to facilitate said consumption. As you say availability of fruits is substantially improved - but what if I told you that cold chain penetration in China is significantly below that of the developed markets:

1677258842087.png

and because of that, shrink for fresh fruits/vegetables are ~20% of the harvest (15% for seafood, 5-8% for meat/egg/poultry). What this all means is that there are substantial opportunities for this to improve further. It is an error to focus on the past successes, and instead one needs to look at the future.

As such, you can't assume infrastructure built to satisfy China's logistics needs as world's factory will be sufficient in a world where Chinese domestic consumption is expected to grow more. Especially, if RCEP further integrates ASEAN/SE Asia into the Chinese economy - you might need more intermodal capacity.

Most importantly though, Nightly News is not supposed to be a source of all correct information but rather, a way to start the debate by looking at facts and getting people to think about these issues critically, something lacking in the Chinese media landscape.

For example, it doesn't take a genius to know that his "20% of GDP should be spent on community-based childcare" thesis is outlandish and an exaggeration, but it certainly raises the importance of boosting TFR and thinking about how to boost TFR as well as the costs necessary to do it.
 

HighGround

Senior Member
Registered Member
His not wrong though, and while there are definitely aspects of North American rail network to learn, you can't take your cake and eat it. Aside from being an end user in the "white goods/container cargo" category, I am far from a SME in that category of transport so I won't comment much. That being said, package delivery in China is far faster and cheaper than in the US lol :p If I am going to assume, with China being a manufacturing power house vs US being a consuming power house, its different game sending trucks from factory floors to a rail interchange then to a port for export or other domestic destinations for consumption vs taking goods from a port, directly onto rail and then onto distribution centers for trucks to destinations for consumption. The Chinese model, the producers are already scattered all around with the consumers, most likely in shorter than 500km circles so the trucks are going to have way more advantage than trains where as in the US model, the goods are gonna be concentrated in places like LA then shipped across the country. This is shooting off the hips using my logic so I may be wrong.

This is not an accurate description of the U.S. model. Though, I'm not sure if you are referring to trains only, or freight in general.

Trucks dominate logistics, but U.S freight trains are extremely efficient. They specialize in different shipping markets. There is quite a bit of nuance to the topic.
 

luosifen

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China still a net importer of services:

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2023-02-24 20:58:41Xinhua Editor : Hao Yunhui
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China's international trade in services stood at 459.5 billion yuan, or 67.6 billion U.S. dollars, in January, official data showed on Friday.
Services exports totaled 177.4 billion yuan last month, and services imports were at 282.1 billion yuan, resulting in a trade deficit of 104.8 billion yuan, according to the State Administration of Foreign Exchange.
Transport was the biggest services trade contributor, with a 143-billion-yuan trade volume, the data showed.
International trade in travel services reached 109.1 billion yuan while trade in telecommunications, computers and information services amounted to 56.3 billion yuan, according to the data.
 
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