Fair enough. But I'd assume that the vast majority of these visas are for tourism/students who return to China, not tech workers who are emigrating
Chinese Economics Thread
- Thread starter Norfolk
- Start date
It’s almost guaranteed China will lose access in certain key industries (AI, biotech, semiconductor, etc..) due to US restrictions. It doesn’t even matter if Chinese product are better and/or cheaper. Politics trumps economics.
so this is the kind of things you need for China. Given that America is looking at restricting investment into China, you need other sources of money. One of which are the GCC countries.
continued cooperation with Arab and UAE funds are a good idea.
continued cooperation with Arab and UAE funds are a good idea.
Forced overtime work and forced consumption...
The Chinese economy will perform better than expected and is projected to grow 5% this year, Fitch Ratings reported in a revised forecast published on Wednesday.
The growth prediction for the world’s second-largest economy was raised from December’s expectations of 4.1% due to “evidence that consumption and activity are recovering faster than initially anticipated” as Beijing lifted its stringent Covid-19 restrictions.
This comes after a weaker-than-expected performance last year, when the country’s GDP grew by 3%, hampered by severe lockdowns. The ratings agency expects economic activity to be strong in the first half of the year, driven by a “swift rebound” from the pandemic.
“We believe stabilizing the recovery will remain the key focus in the near term, but do not anticipate aggressive macro-policy easing,” the economists wrote in a release.
China’s latest Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), a measure of business activity for manufacturing and services, also soared, indicating growth.
The country’s manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1 in January from a previous reading of 47, while its services PMI climbed to 54.4, the highest level since June 2022. A value above 50 indicates an expansion of economic activity, while a reading below points to a contraction.
UBS expects China’s consumption to improve moderately, predicting that spending will be rather “cautious” due to strains in consumer confidence.
“With employment and household income still in need of recovery, consumer confidence may not recover completely but instead remain cautious,” the chief China economist for the investment bank, Wang Tao, said in a note.
Excess savings of China’s households are estimated to be worth 4 trillion to 4.6 trillion yuan ($590 billion to $678 billion), but according to UBS, these savings may not be spent this year.
“Further normalization of consumer behavior and more release of excess savings could help underpin future consumption recovery in 2024 and beyond,” Wang added.
UBS expects China’s household consumption growth to surge 10-11% in nominal terms and 7.8% in real terms in 2023.
China’s growth revised higher
Fitch Ratings improved its outlook due to a faster-than-expected recovery in economic activity
The Chinese economy will perform better than expected and is projected to grow 5% this year, Fitch Ratings reported in a revised forecast published on Wednesday.
The growth prediction for the world’s second-largest economy was raised from December’s expectations of 4.1% due to “evidence that consumption and activity are recovering faster than initially anticipated” as Beijing lifted its stringent Covid-19 restrictions.
This comes after a weaker-than-expected performance last year, when the country’s GDP grew by 3%, hampered by severe lockdowns. The ratings agency expects economic activity to be strong in the first half of the year, driven by a “swift rebound” from the pandemic.
“We believe stabilizing the recovery will remain the key focus in the near term, but do not anticipate aggressive macro-policy easing,” the economists wrote in a release.
China’s latest Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), a measure of business activity for manufacturing and services, also soared, indicating growth.
The country’s manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1 in January from a previous reading of 47, while its services PMI climbed to 54.4, the highest level since June 2022. A value above 50 indicates an expansion of economic activity, while a reading below points to a contraction.
UBS expects China’s consumption to improve moderately, predicting that spending will be rather “cautious” due to strains in consumer confidence.
“With employment and household income still in need of recovery, consumer confidence may not recover completely but instead remain cautious,” the chief China economist for the investment bank, Wang Tao, said in a note.
Excess savings of China’s households are estimated to be worth 4 trillion to 4.6 trillion yuan ($590 billion to $678 billion), but according to UBS, these savings may not be spent this year.
“Further normalization of consumer behavior and more release of excess savings could help underpin future consumption recovery in 2024 and beyond,” Wang added.
UBS expects China’s household consumption growth to surge 10-11% in nominal terms and 7.8% in real terms in 2023.
More on the positive impact of EU's Russian oil/diesel ban on the Chinese economy.
Even more than this, I think just having Chinese crude carriers, insurance companies and such be involved in this network will benefit China at the expense of Europeans (who have to pay higher prices) and Russians (who can't charge as high price on diesel).
From the look of this, China needs to really ramp up on its Russian oil import and take advantage of this arbitrage. Don't just leave it to the Indians, Arabs and Malaysian.
As I said before, importing more Russian and other sanctioned countries crude and then re-exporting refined oil products not only helps with margin, but also helps them with great RMB internationalization.
Even more than this, I think just having Chinese crude carriers, insurance companies and such be involved in this network will benefit China at the expense of Europeans (who have to pay higher prices) and Russians (who can't charge as high price on diesel).
Comrade, the post by Mr. Huang directly above this one, shows who wins.
What wins is economics.
What loses is poor policy by the politician.
What those politicians decided for the EU pertaining to energy policy, is a not a triumph.
supercat
Major
A record since 2018, according to the tweet
How China will beat capitalism:
China and Ecuador finished the negotiations of the technical aspects of their free trade agreement recently.
Decoupling? What decoupling?
supercat
Major
Decoupling won't happen anytime soon, today's case in point:
China’s reopening from Covid-19 restrictions will not only accelerate the country’s economic recovery, but it will also boost global economic growth, according to Goldman Sachs Research.
Due to the faster-than-expected rate of reopening, our economists now forecast China’s GDP to grow by 6.5% in 2023 on a Q4/Q4 basis. On top of that, the reopening—and the recovery of Chinese domestic demand—could raise global GDP by 1% by the end of 2023, GS Research’s Joseph Briggs and Devesh Kodnani write in a new report.
“The global growth backdrop has brightened,” Briggs and Kodnani say. “While we already expected most major economies to avoid recession and China to see a growth rebound from an end to zero-Covid, the more rapid pace of China’s reopening since then—along with a waning drag from global financial conditions and lower European gas prices—has prompted us to upgrade our expectations further.”
Due to the faster-than-expected rate of reopening, our economists now forecast China’s GDP to grow by 6.5% in 2023 on a Q4/Q4 basis. On top of that, the reopening—and the recovery of Chinese domestic demand—could raise global GDP by 1% by the end of 2023, GS Research’s Joseph Briggs and Devesh Kodnani write in a new report.
“The global growth backdrop has brightened,” Briggs and Kodnani say. “While we already expected most major economies to avoid recession and China to see a growth rebound from an end to zero-Covid, the more rapid pace of China’s reopening since then—along with a waning drag from global financial conditions and lower European gas prices—has prompted us to upgrade our expectations further.”
We will see if Abeconomic's 5% is right haha.