Chinese Economics Thread

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Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
HighGround said:
That's good to know. I don't know much about the EU car market aside from market share breakdowns.



Well, to sell cars for one thing. United States is the second biggest car market in the world after China. It makes sense to try to establish a foothold there, and many car manufacturers do. But anyway, I do think EVs will definitely pick up a lot in US in the next 10-20 years, but probably not in the next 5. There is still a lot of resistance to EV adoption in US.

In my opinion, United States is a lot more "backwards" than the rest of the world when it comes to electric vehicles. The infrastructure for EVs is weak, customer demand is significantly lower than in other countries, and quite frankly, US customers are very picky and not in a good way. I have been pleasantly surprised by how readily EV trucks have been accepted by most Americans, but even customers who live in urban areas are reluctant to buy vehicles like Nissan Leaf or Hyundai Ioniq.

For non-US members, stuff like this happens.

View attachment 106756


I think this really does reflect the type of backwardness that many Americans actively celebrate, which just embarrasses me. Like I said before though, I do expect this to change eventually, especially as EV trucks take over as the next big status symbol for a lot of Americans. Small numbers of permanently "regressive" folk will always be there, but I think in 10-20 years America will be on its way to EV adoption.

As Churchill said, Americans can always be counted on to do the right thing…after they have exhausted all other possibilities.
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I think the US needs to be segregated. California vs. the rest of the country. California is indeed leading EV adoption with half of the EVs sold in the US being sold in California. The rest of the country can also have their sub segregations. Hawaii, for example, is Tacoma Nation but much of the mid US is Ford Country, with Chevy+GMC biting in.

Red States tend to be anti EV and want their large red neck pickups. But the tune quickly reverses when said states become potential sites for EV battery plant manufacturing and lithium mines, and suddenly we have a new Gold Rush. A good example is Arkansas which will be hosting a VW battery plant.
 
In4ser

In4ser

Junior Member
Tam said:
I think the US needs to be segregated. California vs. the rest of the country. California is indeed leading EV adoption with half of the EVs sold in the US being sold in California. The rest of the country can also have their sub segregations. Hawaii, for example, is Tacoma Nation but much of the mid US is Ford Country, with Chevy+GMC biting in.

Red States tend to be anti EV and want their large red neck pickups. But the tune quickly reverses when said states become potential sites for EV battery plant manufacturing and lithium mines, and suddenly we have a new Gold Rush. A good example is Arkansas which will be hosting a VW battery plant.
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That would be great! As a Texan, I would love to quarantine those Californians, even better, I'd love a border wall separating Texas from the rest of the US. Too many out-of-state migrants, especially from California moving in, driving up housing prices and flooding the roads with traffic, and bringing up crime rates and trash, and homeless people.
 
A

abenomics12345

Junior Member
Registered Member
HighGround said:
Sure, but why are cars "popular"? Cars aren't like airplanes or semiconductors. Those are bought by large corporate customers who mainly care about performance and for all their faults, try to be objective about their purchases.

Who buys passenger cars? Everyday consumers, who are not the most "reasonable" people. They argue about looks, technology, where it comes form, who built it, and how "well" it drives. It takes decades to build a reputation, to say nothing of the political protectionist games being played by every single country on Earth.

It took decades for Japanese cars to become as dominant in the US car market as they are today. It did not happen overnight. It was also made more difficult by the incredibly racist and protectionist reaction of both U.S. consumers, auto makers, and politicians who saw that the Japanese were making vehicles higher in quality, more efficient, and cheaper than their U.S. counterparts.

To this day, Japanese auto makers haven't managed to properly penetrate the European car market. And what of the Koreans? They tried to be even more aggressive on price and innovation, but haven't quite secured a foothold like established brands have. Conversely, household name Volkswagen failed to establish a strong position in the U.S. market despite strong efforts and decades of venerated automotive excellence and industrial spirit.

In my opinion, when it comes to cars, no matter how good China is, no matter how aggressive they are with pricing and technology, it'll take many decades to even establish a secure position in the global car market, let alone "win" it.


U.S. has some pretty ridiculous protectionist policies when it comes to cars. I don't know about the EU or other countries, but United States is unlikely to offer a "fair" battleground for Chinese automakers. I will be very impressed if China manages to secure 5-10% market share of new car sales in the U.S. car market within the next 10-20 years.
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B2B sales are fundamentally different than B2C sales. I would be precise in saying that Chinese companies are quite good at attacking industries/businesses where value for price is an extremely important attribute.

However, Chinese companies are not very good at 'value-based-selling' - this has been a function where Chinese companies historically didn't have anything to sell that would require 'value based selling' - this is obviously changing given innovation/R&D efforts. However, Chinese management teams have yet to adapt (I'm seeing this quite often) - but I also have no doubt they will learn.

In terms of B2C sales - branding/consumer preferences will be quite difficult for Chinese companies to learn/adapt - esp. given the red scare tactics of the US to engineer McCarthyism 2.0. I am less hopeful on this aspect as @HighGround mentioned above; but we shall see.
 
H

Hadoren

Junior Member
Registered Member
EU carmaking is responsible for millions of jobs and perhaps is even the EU's biggest manufacturing sector.

If those millions of jobs are lost, people naturally will be extremely angry. In the future, Chinese carmakers will therefore need to build big factories in core EU states such as Germany, France, and Italy.

(Core technology such as batteries of course should still be made in China and imported as a component.)
 
tphuang

tphuang

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
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More happy talks of investing in Chinese companies/bonds
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35 more getting listed in Russia. The Hong Kong listed ones, that is.
It certainly seems like the way to go for Chinese companies look to go international is buy dual listing themselves in HK and domestic exchange (Shanghai or Shenzhen).

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also more inflow in rest of January into Chinese markets. Not huge, but much better sign than last year when money was flowing out.
 
TK3600

TK3600

Major
Registered Member
abenomics12345 said:
B2B sales are fundamentally different than B2C sales. I would be precise in saying that Chinese companies are quite good at attacking industries/businesses where value for price is an extremely important attribute.

However, Chinese companies are not very good at 'value-based-selling' - this has been a function where Chinese companies historically didn't have anything to sell that would require 'value based selling' - this is obviously changing given innovation/R&D efforts. However, Chinese management teams have yet to adapt (I'm seeing this quite often) - but I also have no doubt they will learn.

In terms of B2C sales - branding/consumer preferences will be quite difficult for Chinese companies to learn/adapt - esp. given the red scare tactics of the US to engineer McCarthyism 2.0. I am less hopeful on this aspect as @HighGround mentioned above; but we shall see.
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I think it is the other way around. Chinese EV will have success because there is no value based selling here. There is not enough competitor that offer alternatives better fit their value. EV is something high demand. When a Tesla is not available/wait list too long, people suddenly become much more open minded.
 
tphuang

tphuang

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vincent

vincent

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
tphuang said:
ending ZCP is great for HK also
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1622896016960913409

lending is up, which indicates the economy is growing.
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1622968009722851329

and job opening surge in service sector points to service sector growth. Probably a lot of tourism related, but I think in general restaurants and shops should all be seeing growth
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1621485183022006273
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Just check out Amy’s video on a tourist town in Yunnan and see how busy the place is

 
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