Urbanization will grow - but unfortunately previous rates of infrastructure buildout was not sustainable - so relatively speaking it won't be a contributor to future GDP growth. Put it this way, we've 'pulled forward' a lot of infrastructure build out and unfortunately a lot of it was built in the wrong places. Net/net, its probably a wash. Furthermore, urbanization requires migrants actually planting roots - this is why Hukou reforms are critical. The problem here is that those who want to move to cities can't afford to own property in those cities where they want to move to, and yet significant downturn in property prices also crushes consumption in urban areas where majority of consumption happens. So the only way to do this is to 'grow your way out of it' by keeping real estate flat and growing other parts of economy/disposable income. Marking down Tier 1 city real estate by 50% is how we have a riot / repeat of 1989.
Mittlestand in Germany / Advisory Committees in German enterprises is what they're modeling after. This is why there's a focus on Little Giants as part of industrial upgrade. We shall see, what you and I think doesn't matter - it's what policymakers decide that will matter in terms of what market cap to GDP makes sense.
We'll see on local governance - what Xi labels as "Full Process People's Democracy" is thus far not yet significant enough to move the needle but it's something to watch.
The long term is made up of many short terms - especially given where we are in the reform cycle - the next year or two are crucially important. The base effect gets easier (as real estate shrink + other parts grow) over time.
