Chinese Economics Thread

AndrewS

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I think Goldman is right. Chinese GDP growth this year has been underestimated.

If you actually crunch the stated World Bank 2023 growth estimates, they are forecasting that:

China will account for more economic growth in 2023 than the rest of the world combined

That has all sorts of implications.
For example, it reinforces the point that decoupling from China means decoupling from the world.

And yes, China will likely grow significantly faster than what the World Bank is currently forecasting
 

supercat

Major

Stierlitz

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Exports from China slumped 9.9% yoy in December 2022 to USD 306.08 billion, compared with market consensus of a 10% fall and following an 8.7% drop month earlier. This was the third straight month of decline in shipments, and the steepest fall since February 2020, amid shrinking global demand due to high inflation and the impact of a surge in COVID cases in China. Exports to the US plunged 19.51%, the fifth straight month of contraction; while shipments to the EU dropped 17.5%, following a 10.62% fall in November. Meanwhile, exports to Russia rose 8.26% from a year earlier, easing from 17.9% in November. For the full year of 2022, exports grew 7% yoy to USD 3.6 trillion, with exports to the ASEAN countries soaring 17.7%, while those to the EU grew 8.6%. source: General Administration of Customs

Imports to China declined by 7.5 yoy to USD 228.08 billion in December 2022, compared with market estimates of a 9.8% fall and after a 10.6% drop a month earlier. This was the third straight month of contraction in arrivals, as domestic demand shrank amid a surge in COVID cases and supply chain issues. That said, China's coal imports were almost flat yoy after Beijing introduced a price cap on domestic thermal coal early last year aimed at lowering power generation costs and avoiding power shortages that happened in 2021. Meantime, crude oil imports rose 4.2%, while arrivals of soybeans surged 19% as buyers stocked up to ease tight supplies. Purchases were down from both the US (-7.12%) and the EU (-13.4%), while rose from Russia (8.3%). Considering the whole year, purchases edged up 1.1% to USD 2.7 trillion. For this year, imports are expected to improve, with metal commodities likely being a top contributor following a full reopening of the economy. source: General Administration of Customs

 

Overbom

Brigadier
Registered Member
I think Goldman is right. Chinese GDP growth this year has been underestimated.
From one of the replies below. Given how quickly China dropped zero-covid and infection numbers skyrocketed, it might be good in the long run because the pain could be limited to only 1.5-2 months.

We could actually see 5.5-6% gdp growth for 2023 if the covid situation is resolved quickly and China makes a push for domestic consumption
FmOZqDiagAAQWRl.jpeg
 

Overbom

Brigadier
Registered Member
China's own estimate is 6%. It may still be an underestimate, considering that Chinese savings increased 42%, or $ 4.2 trillion, since early 2020. $4.8 trillion is larger than U.K.'s GDP. China has potentially a lot of spending/consumption to do.
What's funny is that by the end of 2022 China's gdp was 120 trillion RMB. Slap a 6% on top of it and the gain for this year could be 7.2 trillion RMB.

7.2 trillion RMB with a dollar exchange rate of:
7 is $1 trillion
6.5 is $1.1 trillion
6 is $1.2 trillion

(from 2021 data)
1 trillion is Netherlands' whole GDP.
2 trillion is Italy's whole GDP.
3 trillion is UK's whole GDP.
4 trillion is Germany's whole GDP.
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
If you actually crunch the stated World Bank 2023 growth estimates, they are forecasting that:

China will account for more economic growth in 2023 than the rest of the world combined

That has all sorts of implications.
For example, it reinforces the point that decoupling from China means decoupling from the world.

And yes, China will likely grow significantly faster than what the World Bank is currently forecasting

Adding to this

If the US is decoupling from China, it means the US is effectively decoupling from the world, given:

1. the size of the Chinese economy
2. China's role in accounting for the majority of global economic growth in 2023
3. also having has the most competitive factories, manufacturers, companies and technology

So as the US decouples from the Global Economy, they won't be as rich or might actually get poorer.

On the other side, the more that China engages with the Global Economy, the richer China and its trading partners become.
And this increased engagement forces the US to decouple even further.

Note that the Collective West only accounts for 40% of global economic activity, so China would be part of a larger economic bloc than the US.

China increasing its trade and other linkages will mean increased mutual vulnerabilities, yes. But China's heft means it will have a stronger negotiating position and be comparatively hurt less if those trade linkages get cut off.
 

Jiang ZeminFanboy

Senior Member
Registered Member
What's funny is that by the end of 2022 China's gdp was 120 trillion RMB. Slap a 6% on top of it and the gain for this year could be 7.2 trillion RMB.

7.2 trillion RMB with a dollar exchange rate of:
7 is $1 trillion
6.5 is $1.1 trillion
6 is $1.2 trillion

(from 2021 data)
1 trillion is Netherlands' whole GDP.
2 trillion is Italy's whole GDP.
3 trillion is UK's whole GDP.
4 trillion is Germany's whole GDP.
It will be more than 6%. That's a growth excluding inflation. Nominal growth is with inflation. I believe 2023 could be similar to 2021, when China had about 8%~ real growth.
 

Strangelove

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Russia-China trade hits record high​

Turnover is approaching the $200 billion goal two years ahead of schedule, customs data shows

Russia-China trade hits record high

© Getty Images / John Lamb

Trade between Russia and China soared by nearly a third last year to over $190 billion, according to data released on Friday by China’s Customs Administration.

China exported $76.1 billion worth of goods to Russia in 2022, an increase of 12.8% compared to the previous year, while shipments from Russia to China surged by 43.4% to $114.1 billion.

In December alone, trade turnover between the two countries totaled $17.8 billion, according to the data.

The figures also showed that in 2022 Russia was the leader among China’s 20 largest partners in terms of trade growth. Moscow and Beijing had previously set a goal of boosting mutual trade to $200 billion by 2024.

Speaking with Chinese leader Xi Jinping via video link last month, Russian President Vladimir Putin praised the strengthening of ties between the two countries, especially in the energy sphere.

Despite the unfavorable external situation, illegitimate restrictions and direct blackmail by some Western countries, Russia and China managed to ensure record high growth rates of mutual trade… Today, we are already in second place in terms of pipeline gas supplies to China and in fourth place in terms of imported LNG [liquefied natural gas],” he said, adding that in January-November the volumes of agricultural turnover had also surged, by 36% to $6 billion.

The Financial Times earlier reported that by November 2022 China had become Russia’s main trading partner, but at the time trade was complicated by the Covid-19 restrictions. Over the past two months, Beijing has relaxed some of the measures that had been negatively impacting trade, and analysts now expect volumes to grow further.
 

tphuang

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VIP Professional
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interesting twitter thread on this.

This shows the current discount that China is getting from Russia on oil. Quite the spread there. Keep in mind the source is Bloomberg so this might be inflated.

chart of Chinese IC/Semi exports to Russia

So this is really good for Chinese economy. A lot of cheap energy imports and other resources. A great export market for its products.
And also a country leading the effort to internationalize RMB.

rail freight did a good summary on China-Euro railway traffic
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Even though this was up in 2022 vs 2021. The actual traffic from China to Europe is down like 30 to 40% due to Ukraine war. So that means, a lot of this route is now used for China/Russia (CIS) trade traffic.

The consequences of lower hydrocarbon prices is that China will import more from Russia
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16 million bpd is a lot. I think a large portion of that will be for re-exporting refined oil product.
 
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