Chinese Economics Thread

[manqiangrexue]

No. Using annualized rates for GDP levels and using US Q/Q and China’s Y/Y levels as directly comparable is wrong. The US economy through 3Q22 is 2.4% larger than it was compared to 1Q21-3Q21; China’s economy is 3% larger from 1Q22-3Q22 compared to 1Q21-3Q21. So China has outgrown the US by 1.25x, substantially lower than historical levels. Unsurprisingly, this is when zero COVID took on its more fanatical forms (random and rolling lockdowns and functional bans on intercity/interprovincial travel); as opposed to more measured zero COVID measures in 2020 and 2021.

No, those numbers were not cobbled from random sites that report differently; they were obtained from the same site with the functional purpose of making things comparable to each other. The numbers on that site are directly comparable, maybe not to other sites, but certainly to each other.

Your 1.25X has no formula and came out of nowhere. If you wish to establish it, list your sources and your formulas, yes, both of them. Like I did, list the sources for your numbers (make sure they are comparable), the formula through which you've arrived at America's 2022 Q1-3 total and China's 2022 Q1-3 total. Or we can just wait for annual 2022 data to come out and prove you wrong again. Just now, you're admitting that China accelerated its economic growth in relation to the US during COVID whereas in all your previous accounts, you pretended that that was not the case. In the future, you will admit that China won 2022, 2023, 2024, etc... year-by-year but try to twist data for why it's losing 20XX.

1.25 times. 2.48 -> 3.88 - 1.25x. That’s is a rapid deceleration.

There was actually a typo when I got the 3.88X. For China 2020 and 2021, it's actually 1.0224x1.0811=1.1053 to America's 0.966x1.0567=1.0208, which is 10.53% to 2.08%, which is 5.06X. Then 7.71X followed.

Additionally, this is nominal GDP, not PPP and the US raised the value of its currency to combat inflation, therefore artificially deflating everyone else's currency and nominal GDP. China, the EU, Japan, they can all follow and negate that by raising their currencies as well, but they're not desperate like the US and will enjoy the easy export boom (for the countries that can take advantage of it like China).

China was able to accelerate the rate at which its economic slowdown is metastizing and functionally end its economic convergence with the United States in 2022.

1. Even if China was growing at 1.25x the pace of the US, it is still converging in nominal terms. It's only NOT converging in PPP terms because it's ahead of the US and enlarging that lead.

2. Don't use words when you don't know what they mean, even if in your imagination, they make you sound smart
Metastisize - (of a cancer) spread to other sites in the body by metastasis.
Metastasis - the development of secondary malignant growths at a distance from a primary site of cancer

Of course, whether that continues or not is whether China continues with fanatical zero COVID policies or not

Oh, so now it's not "irreparable" anymore, eh? LOL You so desperately want to see China make a mistake and end up like the US you can't even hide it.

 

[hans_r]

What sleepy doesn't seem to understand is that high growth rates is something that the Chinese authorities are trying to avoid. The last 20-30 years China has been set up to be a factory of the west. Record economic growth has lead to western growth.

What kind of high level cope is this? China very much wants economic growth (

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), it just can’t get it because of zero COVID fanaticism, business crackdowns and hostility towards the private sector, an inefficient private sector, sanctions, weak educational attainment, bad population health, etc. if China wanted to limit spillovers to western grown: China could stop trade and investment with the West (of course, that’s not happening, the reverse is).

Being able to build almost anything implies being unable to build some things, I.e., future potential growth

Being able to build almost anything implies being unable to build some things, I.e., future potential growth. Of course, China’s lack of strength or scale in high-tech manufacturing is available for the world to see with the recent semiconductor sanctions (and China’s inability to duplicate what ASML can produce, with its 31K employees).

Better to shut down/stagnate the economy because "covid" and use the time to restructure it so it benefits the Chinese people rather than the American consumer.

There’s more to demand growth than export growth - consumption and investment driven growth are also possible (well except for now due to fanatical zero COVID lol)

We're literally at the point where China has more money that it knows what to do with.

Except somehow raise incomes. But nah, there’s always more demands for money than there is money to fulfill them.

Better to shut down/stagnate the economy because "covid" and use the time to restructure it so it benefits the Chinese people rather than the American consumer.

Fewer resources doesn’t favor the Chinese consumer in any way.

 

[zgx09t]

What kind of high level cope is this? China very much wants economic growth (

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), it just can’t get it because of zero COVID fanaticism, business crackdowns and hostility towards the private sector, an inefficient private sector, sanctions, weak educational attainment, bad population health, etc. if China wanted to limit spillovers to western grown: China could stop trade and investment with the West (of course, that’s not happening, the reverse is).

Being able to build almost anything implies being unable to build some things, I.e., future potential growth. Of course, China’s lack of strength or scale in high-tech manufacturing is available for the world to see with the recent semiconductor sanctions (and China’s inability to duplicate what ASML can produce, with its 31K employees).

There’s more to demand growth than export growth - consumption and investment driven growth are also possible (well except for now due to fanatical zero COVID lol)

Except somehow raise incomes. But nah, there’s always more demands for money than there is money to fulfill them.

Fewer resources doesn’t favor the Chinese consumer in any way.

Well ...

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[s002wjh]

China does not have to produce 4x everything more than the U.S. Even 2x is good enough. The U.S. has never faced a competitor that graduates about 2 times more high quality STEM PhD every year, that has a (much?) higher national IQ, and better academic institutions (except in life sciences according to the Nature Index) in its history until now.

yea except alot these chinese or indian graduates work in US. US just import talents from all over the world. most research institute or university are filled with chinese, indian or immigrant from other countries or 2nd/3rd gen descendants of chinese/indian etc.
just other days i read TSMC shipping its employee by the plane load to US for its new fabs. all were getting H1B, some eventually green card

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Tsinghua Alumni Associations in North America​

 

[manqiangrexue]

yea except alot these chinese or indian graduates work in US. US just import talents from all over the world. most research institute or university are filled with chinese, indian or immigrant from other countries or 2nd/3rd gen descendants of chinese/indian etc.
just other days i read TSMC shipping its employee by the plane load to US for its new fabs. all were getting H1B, some eventually green card

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This again? The US with its Indians tripping up Intel, selling B-2 plans overseas and its agencies trying to keep an eye on every Chinese person because they know Chinese people have no reason to be loyal to the US. What a logistics nightmare relying on foreigners. It's brain circulation; they go to the US to work cus it's easy to be a little guy starting out in America. When they get big, if they get big, they go home because it's easier being the hero and the big kahuna in China. 80% of them go back quickly, the rest trickle with a few staying. The only reason the US deals with this despite China getting so much, even the start of its nuclear weapons program from the mechanism, is because its local talent are too lazy and too few so it's death by slow poison over death by immediate blood loss.

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[s002wjh]

This again? The US with its Indians tripping up Intel, selling B-2 plans overseas and its agencies trying to keep an eye on every Chinese person because they know Chinese people have no reason to be loyal to the US. What a logistics nightmare relying on foreigners. It's brain circulation; they go to the US to work cus it's easy to be a little guy starting out. When they get big, they go home because it's easier being the hero and the big kahuna in China. 80% of them go back quickly, the rest trickle with a few staying. The only reason the US deals with this is because its local talent are too lazy and too few so it's death by slow poison over death by immediate blood loss.

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right so many foreign born just happen to work at every tech company, and every university in US

 

[manqiangrexue]

right so many foreign born just happen to work at every tech company, and every university in US

Oh so many! So impressive with your personal stories! I saw so many people today; the world must have a bajillion people!

>80%! I don't play with your personal stories. You'd know when to shut up if you were numerically literate.

 

[s002wjh]

Oh so many! So impressive with your personal stories! I saw so many people today; the world must have a bajillion people!

>80%! I don't play with your personal stories. You'd know when to shut up if you were numerically literate.

it seem even slight different opinion than yours, you get so work up. got a mental maturity of teens anyway no point to reply more cause i know u just gonna bring out all the curse language every time someone had different opinions than you so out of curiosity why dont you be a hero and work in china. because like you said.

because it's easier being the hero and the big kahuna in China

 

[manqiangrexue]

it seem even slight different opinion than yours, you get so work up. got a mental maturity of teens

Seems when someone disagrees and out-debates you with empirical evidence, you get sensitive and wish the other person would just let you slide. Sorry, I came here to debate and you've got the debate skills of a teen

anyway no point to reply more

Cus you can't logically continue a debate

cause i know u just gonna bring out all the curse language every time someone had different opinions than you

Then get me banned. I wouldn't stop anything with you if you cursed; I'd let you do it and let the mods sort it out. Mature, right?

so out of curiosity why dont you be a hero and work in china. because like you said.

Married a PhD wife who wanted to stay in the US; I told her that's for losers so that's over. That's my first contribution. We're going to XiongAn together. Want my flight itinerary and passport number, Mr. Nosy? Also, didn't you already receive a mod warning for heckling personal questions to escape a previous debate you were also losing?

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

yea except alot these chinese or indian graduates work in US. US just import talents from all over the world. most research institute or university are filled with chinese, indian or immigrant from other countries or 2nd/3rd gen descendants of chinese/indian etc.
just other days i read TSMC shipping its employee by the plane load to US for its new fabs. all were getting H1B, some eventually green card

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the % of H1B visas being issued is tiny compared to the graduates of Chinese universities.

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only 40k issued to Chinese, 70%+ issued to Indians but even that is only 300k.