Not centuries, but millenia! Seriously, this is ROFL... You are not worthy of inheriting Gordan Chang's mantle of responsibility.
Chinese Economics Thread
- Thread starter Norfolk
- Start date
Not centuries, but millenia! Seriously, this is ROFL... You are not worthy of inheriting Gordan Chang's mantle of responsibility.
manqiangrexue
Brigadier
@hans_r Just realized I gave you too much credit again to let your numbers slide thinking China only grew at under 3X the pace of the US.
2019-2021 China GDP data (5.69%, 2.24%, 8.11%):
2019-2021 USA GDP data (2.29%, -3.4%, 5.67%):
2022 China GDP data by quarter (1.6%, -2.7%, 3.9%):
2022 US GDP data by quarter (-1.6%, -0.6%, 2.6%):
In 2019, China grew at 5.69% while the US grew at 2.29%, so before COVID, China was growing at 569/229=2.48 times the rate of the US.
Once COVID hit, we see that in 2020 and 2021, China grew 1.0224x1.0811=1.0806 which is 8.06%. The US grew 0.966x1.0567=1.0208 which is 2.08%. That means that in this time period, China grew at 806/208=3.88 times the pace of the US.
How about recovery this year so far throughout the 3 reported quarters? In 2022, China grew at 1.016x0.973x1.039=1.027 which is 2.7%. The US grew at 0.984x0.994x1.026=1.0035, which is 0.35%. That means that in this time period, China grew at 2.7/.35=7.71 times the pace of the US.
Before COVID, China was going 2.48 times faster than the US; during COVID, it became 3.88 times, and this year, while the US is totally open and China still with COVID Zero, it became 7.71 times. That means that not only did the combined effects of China and America's COVID policies not cause China to sacrifice its economy to save lives in comparison, it allowed China to both save lives and accelerate its economic overtake of the US. Yup, COVID Zero definitely the way to go.
2019-2021 China GDP data (5.69%, 2.24%, 8.11%):
2019-2021 USA GDP data (2.29%, -3.4%, 5.67%):
2022 China GDP data by quarter (1.6%, -2.7%, 3.9%):
2022 US GDP data by quarter (-1.6%, -0.6%, 2.6%):
In 2019, China grew at 5.69% while the US grew at 2.29%, so before COVID, China was growing at 569/229=2.48 times the rate of the US.
Once COVID hit, we see that in 2020 and 2021, China grew 1.0224x1.0811=1.0806 which is 8.06%. The US grew 0.966x1.0567=1.0208 which is 2.08%. That means that in this time period, China grew at 806/208=3.88 times the pace of the US.
How about recovery this year so far throughout the 3 reported quarters? In 2022, China grew at 1.016x0.973x1.039=1.027 which is 2.7%. The US grew at 0.984x0.994x1.026=1.0035, which is 0.35%. That means that in this time period, China grew at 2.7/.35=7.71 times the pace of the US.
Before COVID, China was going 2.48 times faster than the US; during COVID, it became 3.88 times, and this year, while the US is totally open and China still with COVID Zero, it became 7.71 times. That means that not only did the combined effects of China and America's COVID policies not cause China to sacrifice its economy to save lives in comparison, it allowed China to both save lives and accelerate its economic overtake of the US. Yup, COVID Zero definitely the way to go.
I thank your contributions, the world needs more people with a talent and patience for education.
It's like watching Mike Tyson work a punching bag - a thing of beauty.
manqiangrexue
Brigadier
I don't know about that. I've never seen a punching bag slap itself like this guy before. "You're losing cus you're only beating us by 21 to 7.5!" LOL Also unlike this guy, it's not funny when a punching bag is hit. This is more like Deontay Wilder vs boxing troll Charlie Zelenoff, who, btw, is self-proclaimed 346-0.
Last edited:
No. Using annualized rates for GDP levels and using US Q/Q and China’s Y/Y levels as directly comparable is wrong. The US economy through 3Q22 is 2.4% larger than it was compared to 1Q21-3Q21; China’s economy is 3% larger from 1Q22-3Q22 compared to 1Q21-3Q21. So China has outgrown the US by 1.25x, substantially lower than historical levels. Unsurprisingly, this is when zero COVID took on its more fanatical forms (random and rolling lockdowns and functional bans on intercity/interprovincial travel); as opposed to more measured zero COVID measures in 2020 and 2021.
1.25 times. 2.48 -> 3.88 - 1.25x. That’s is a rapid deceleration.
China was able to accelerate the rate at which its economic slowdown is metastizing and functionally end its economic convergence with the United States in 2022. Of course, whether that continues or not is whether China continues with fanatical zero COVID policies or not
What sleepy doesn't seem to understand is that high growth rates is something that the Chinese authorities are trying to avoid. The last 20-30 years China has been set up to be a factory of the west. Record economic growth has lead to western growth.
But we're now at the point where China can build or develop almost anything. Having a massive trade surplus has lead to China holding vast amounts of foreign capital. We're literally at the point where China has more money that it knows what to do with.
Whether China grows 1% or 10% is irrelevant at this point if growth just results in acquiring more dollars which will be sanctioned by America sooner or later.
Better to shut down/stagnate the economy because "covid" and use the time to restructure it so it benefits the Chinese people rather than the American consumer.
But we're now at the point where China can build or develop almost anything. Having a massive trade surplus has lead to China holding vast amounts of foreign capital. We're literally at the point where China has more money that it knows what to do with.
Whether China grows 1% or 10% is irrelevant at this point if growth just results in acquiring more dollars which will be sanctioned by America sooner or later.
Better to shut down/stagnate the economy because "covid" and use the time to restructure it so it benefits the Chinese people rather than the American consumer.
supercat
Major
China does not have to produce 4x everything more than the U.S. Even 2x is good enough. The U.S. has never faced a competitor that graduates about 2 times more high quality STEM PhD every year, that has a (much?) higher national IQ, and better academic institutions (except in life sciences according to the Nature Index) in its history until now.
Here is Goldman Sachs projection for GDP growth in 2022, 2023, and 2024:
I can't stop saying this: China should sell more UST and buy more gold, other precious metals, and industrial metals:
Here is Goldman Sachs projection for GDP growth in 2022, 2023, and 2024:
I can't stop saying this: China should sell more UST and buy more gold, other precious metals, and industrial metals: