Looking forward to the day the USD loses its reserve currency status and Americans have to junk their pickups and ride secondhand bicycles to work everyday.
Chinese Economics Thread
- Thread starter Norfolk
- Start date
I mostly agree, as services is the easiest part of GDP to inflate.
BTW, here's the proof for my previous assertion that their intensity resolution and dynamic range is both too low.
Original paper:
When your data is too low bits, you can't separate similar intensity measurements, and when it saturates, arbitrarily high intensities are binned together with moderate ones.
How bad is the underestimation? I've tried looking for direct comparisons between urban and rural, but it is surprisingly hard to find hard measurements. Best I could do was an Indian (IK, IK) study on indoor lighting. It turns that even indoor lighting - 100% within human control - can differ by 3 orders of magnitude from 30-28500 lux. For rural areas this value would be near 0 at night. 3 orders of magnitude cannot be accurately captured by a 6 bit number.
They could've used the Chinese radiometric satellite which has 14-bit data and 3 channel RGB sensors for more accuracy.
But this is not surprising at all, since DMSP was designed to measure solely urban vs rural, not urban light intensity. As for why this information might be useful... we all know.
They also factually get something wrong: China subscribes to SDSS, but was not listed in page A13. Not a big deal but shows that the author should be a bit more careful.
that saturates the sensor, so it doesn't count. Fake GDP detected! Checkmate authoritarians!
broadsword
Brigadier
America's shining city on the hill will blind everyone.
escobar
Brigadier
Triennial Central Bank survey by BIS:
While the RMB jumped from 4% to 7% of transactions, note that the only common cross pair using the RMB is still with the USD. . Insofar as Beijing wants to avoid dollar dependency, this won't cut it. USD is by far the most important currency, no sign of it losing its eminence.
Constante overuse of sanctions and increasing realization that the US is an extremely unreliable actor as time goes by thanks to the senility and utter failure of its leadership will accelerate this, regardless.
First
If the author uses light, a big part of China's urban transportation is buried underground as MRT, if China's underground subway is on par ( read : as bad as ) US, then many cars will emerge in the street and illuminate the night.
Second
Actually, China's GDPs were understated during 2002-2008, which is why by then Premier Li said that government figures can't be trusted. Premier Wen at that time had inherited " buying time, hide your strength " from Deng. That was why in 2012-2015, when China's growth go slower, everyone said hard landing, etc.
Third
For the just hatched, nice try to bait, hope you stay here for a long time
I would like to point out some things.
The measure of intensity they used is an unsigned integer from 0-63. That means any floating point component is lost. Essentially a floor function, if you will. That means 6.9 is the same as 6.0 within the measurement scale they used.
Lux is a linear unit, yes. But in terms of actual energy output, lumens is preferred. However lumens is a logarithmic scale. A 800 lumens light will only be preceived to be twice as bright as a 200 lumens light.
So we're talking about a potentially huge discrepency of readings being compressed into a single unsigned integer.
All in all, shitty methodology everywhere. To be expected from a political science PhD though, frankly.
Also the sensor saturation problem where 63 is the limit and anything above that no longer matters. That means that beyond a certain limit, further intensive development of megacities is underestimated. You can reduce the gain but then it underestimates rural areas as they get binned into the 0 category.