Chinese Economics Thread

[pmc]

That is not an accurate statement.

Of the 10 largest sovereign wealth fund countries, half come from non-OPEC countries, namely Norway, China, Singapore, Australia and the USA. And these non-OPEC countries account for 56% of the value.

Kuwait alone has $700b and this country does not know anything like the others. now imagine the real wealth of the others.

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And remember that OPEC trade surpluses come from exporting natural resources and they are not manufacturing nations. So it does mean they have to import many goods as they don't make them themselves.

I don't understand your logic of how [Sovereign Wealth fund] + [Trade Surplus] => Connections => "Know a lot"???

when you have this scale of money you naturally has the influence to identity the right technologies and people. they can build stuff at other places. like Dubai ports and Arctic.

But remember that there are Chinese phones in China which do not use Android and Qualcomm. But Russians have to be willing to buy. Haval vehicles are old technology and will soon be obsolete. Within 2 years, the majority of Chinese car sales will be electric where Chinese companies dominate the supply chain and components for electric vehicles.

i am sure there are other phones but the one i mentioned is what sells . when OPEC+ gets involved and scale of air travel at reasonable prices than easy to find various options for consumer products. high end SUVs that are popular in OPEC+ are still Japanese because of longevity, maintainability and easy to add options like vehicle made for Middleast but adding heating options in Russia or using non-standard rim sizes. i doubt current EVs can replace this system at reasonable prices.

You've got to stop cherry picking isolated examples and look at the broader picture.

i have looked at broader picture. OPEC+ will control both Arctic and Suez and through them they will control rest of the world. they set the prices of fuel and overall tanker traffic. so the trade need to fulfill first and foremost there interests.

 

[KYli]

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[Strangelove]

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China’s Liaodong Bay of Bohai Sea cumulatively produces over 200 million tons of oil, gas over 30 years

By Global Times Published: Aug 29, 2022 01:42 PM Updated: Aug 29, 2022 01:34 PM

CNOOC's oil and gas extraction facility (Photo/CNOOC)

The accumulated oil and gas production of offshore oilfields over the past 30 years located in the Liaodong Bay of Bohai Sea exceeded 200 million tons, equivalent to 40 years of oil and gas consumption in a city of 10 million people in China, PetroChina and China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) announced on Monday.

“We have developed several oilfields with 100-million-ton output in Liaodong Bay and have produced 10 million tons of oil for 12 consecutive years,” Li Chunyong, an official from CNOOC’s branch in Tianjin was quoted as saying in an interview with the China Media Group.

Liaodong Bay, an area of sea with the highest latitude in China, is rich in oil and gas resources, with accumulated geological reserves of oil exceeding 800 million tons and natural gas over 70 billion cubic meters.

The Bohai Oilfield has already built 68 offshore oil production facilities and 3 onshore terminal plants in Liaodong Bay, with more than 1,300 oil wells.

During the extraction of gas and oil in the bay, the CNOOC has overcome a number of technical difficulties with “anti-ice technology,” as the bay has a a freezing period of up to 3 months in a year.

The extraction of heavy oil represents another major breakthrough in Liaodong Bay. Heavy oil, a crude oil with poor fluidity, is buried underground at room temperature, which is difficult to be extracted coupled with the lack of space on the offshore platforms.

Through the heavy oil thermal recovery technology, the annual production of heavy oil with thermal recovery in Bohai Oilfield has exceeded 300,000 tons for the first time in 2021.

In April 2022, the world's first offshore ultra-heavy oil development field was put into operation, marking China's offshore heavy oil extraction technology has reached the world's first-class level. During the 14th Five-Year Plan period 2021-25, the annual output of heavy oil in Liaodong Bay is expected to reach a planned 3 million tons.

Over the next three years, the company will have a number of new oil fields put into operation and realize shore power access to oil and gas field grid.

 

[AndrewS]

Kuwait alone has $700b and this country does not know anything like the others. now imagine the real wealth of the others.

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And China has sovereign wealth funds worth 3x bigger than Kuwait. Norway is 2x bigger than Kuwait. You can apply the same logic to them.

Yes, Kuwait has outsized influence. But it has a limited ability to actually spend this money.

when you have this scale of money you naturally has the influence to identity the right technologies and people. they can build stuff at other places. like Dubai ports and Arctic.

I'm not saying OPEC doesn't have outsized influence. But this doesn't change the fact that China has port operators are 2x bigger than Dubai Ports World.

And if you're referring to technology development, the vast majority of this occurs in the developed world and in China. Not in Russia or OPEC. Look at the global R&D figures for yourself.

OPEC influence on technology development is minimal in the developed world and China - compared to local venture capitalists and government decisions.

And once a technology has been developed, it doesn't really matter where it was developed. What matters is where is it mass produced and deployed.

For example, in the past 2.5 years, China has deployed more renewable energy than the rest of the world combined. That is in addition to manufacturing for everyone else. Again, look at the figures for yourself.

Russia and OPEC have zero influence on this technology development because China can develop or source everything it needs domestically, aside from the raw minerals which there aren't enough of in China. And OPEC+Russia do not supply these minerals.

Also remember that this shift to renewable energy means that one day, the world won't need OPEC's oil and gas

i am sure there are other phones but the one i mentioned is what sells . when OPEC+ gets involved and scale of air travel at reasonable prices than easy to find various options for consumer products. high end SUVs that are popular in OPEC+ are still Japanese because of longevity, maintainability and easy to add options like vehicle made for Middleast but adding heating options in Russia or using non-standard rim sizes. i doubt current EVs can replace this system at reasonable prices.

Why are you even talking about air travel? The vast majority of global trade travels by sea, not by air.

And even if you look at the world's 10 largest airlines, they are in the West and China. Not in OPEC or Russia.

i have looked at broader picture. OPEC+ will control both Arctic and Suez and through them they will control rest of the world. they set the prices of fuel and overall tanker traffic. so the trade need to fulfill first and foremost there interests.

I don't understand why you keep talking about OPEC+ as an entity.

Russia is now in a position where it is reliant on China as a customer for its exports, and as a supplier of technology and imported products.

OPEC is neither of these and the loss of OPEC trade wouldn't make any difference to Russia.

But the loss of China trade could be catastrophic for what is left of Russian industry. There literally would be no more component imports, smartphones, or any sort of cars for example.

But of course, it is in China's interests to have a friendly Russia and for Russia not to be aligned with the USA.

Anyway, I think I've said everything I need to say here

 

[gadgetcool5]

China with a per capita income half the US will have an economy twice its size.. Scary shit for Anglos and that is what keeps them awake.

Currently population trends do not allow that to be sustainable. There are about 3.6 million births per year in the U.S. and 10.6 million births per year in China, so China's population is trending to be no more than x3 times the size of the U.S. With half the per capita income, at that trending rate, the Chinese economy would only be 47% larger than the U.S.

The U.S. would not fear that as long as it has Japan, South Korea, Canada, Australia, the UK, the EU, India, etc. under its thumb whose combined GDP dwarf's China's.

 

[j17wang]

Currently population trends do not allow that to be sustainable. There are about 3.6 million births per year in the U.S. and 10.6 million births per year in China, so China's population is trending to be no more than x3 times the size of the U.S. With half the per capita income, at that trending rate, the Chinese economy would only be 47% larger than the U.S.

The U.S. would not fear that as long as it has Japan, South Korea, Canada, Australia, the UK, the EU, India, etc. under its thumb whose combined GDP dwarf's China's.

Its interesting that in the long term "Japan, South Korea, Canada, Australia, the UK, the EU" will likely comprise less than 47% US size. Its very surprising the relative decline of American allies (demographic/economic) is actually occurring faster than America's as a % of global GDP/population... Over 20 years ago, it was pretty much expected that EU would one day eclipse the US, since even with lower per-capita income it had a much larger population. Now it is clear EU will have less people than the US, and be much poorer per capita.

 

[Petrolicious88]

Currently population trends do not allow that to be sustainable. There are about 3.6 million births per year in the U.S. and 10.6 million births per year in China, so China's population is trending to be no more than x3 times the size of the U.S. With half the per capita income, at that trending rate, the Chinese economy would only be 47% larger than the U.S.

The U.S. would not fear that as long as it has Japan, South Korea, Canada, Australia, the UK, the EU, India, etc. under its thumb whose combined GDP dwarf's China's.

Another way to put it would be China needs to sustain GDP growth of 5-6% going forward. If growth slows down to 2-3% as they are now with Zero Covid and other headwinds, China would still eventually surpass the US in GDP, but that delta would not be large enough to provide any major competitive advantage. Productivity per capita is still around 50% lower than the U.S.

 

[Andy1974]

Its interesting that in the long term "Japan, South Korea, Canada, Australia, the UK, the EU" will likely comprise less than 47% US size. Its very surprising the relative decline of American allies (demographic/economic) is actually occurring faster than America's as a % of global GDP/population... Over 20 years ago, it was pretty much expected that EU would one day eclipse the US, since even with lower per-capita income it had a much larger population. Now it is clear EU will have less people than the US, and be much poorer per capita.

I am starting to think that the tactics of a declining US are to decline everyone else faster.

 

[pmc]

And China has sovereign wealth funds worth 3x bigger than Kuwait. Norway is 2x bigger than Kuwait. You can apply the same logic to them.

Yes, Kuwait has outsized influence. But it has a limited ability to actually spend this money.

Kuwait is less sophisticated compared to the others. OPEC+ should easily get couple of trillions of surplus.
I am not sure when the $700b figure but that figure is now $769b.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1554334871748747264

I'm not saying OPEC doesn't have outsized influence. But this doesn't change the fact that China has port operators are 2x bigger than Dubai Ports World.

bigger does not mean strategically located with right product. why do you think there is 4 years wait for this vehicle. they give importance to specific products and services.

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And if you're referring to technology development, the vast majority of this occurs in the developed world and in China. Not in Russia or OPEC. Look at the global R&D figures for yourself.

OPEC+ has ownership interest in alot of those tech firms that you referring too. it is countries of OPEC+ that provide foundation of endless money for scientific research and including private universities afloat when no one had money.
A car dealer made this much on IPO. They have been in this games as long as wall street.

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Rivian’s IPO Mints $11.5 Billion Fortune for Saudi Investor​

OPEC influence on technology development is minimal in the developed world and China - compared to local venture capitalists and government decisions.

OPEC+ runs developed world. without it everything stop.

And once a technology has been developed, it doesn't really matter where it was developed. What matters is where is it mass produced and deployed.

thats the point i was alluding of control over IPs. if a product has Android /Qualcom it will be considered western developed for OPEC+.

For example, in the past 2.5 years, China has deployed more renewable energy than the rest of the world combined. That is in addition to manufacturing for everyone else. Again, look at the figures for yourself.

Producing the same thing more does not make a difference.

Russia and OPEC have zero influence on this technology development because China can develop or source everything it needs domestically, aside from the raw minerals which there aren't enough of in China. And OPEC+Russia do not supply these minerals.

Also remember that this shift to renewable energy means that one day, the world won't need OPEC's oil and gas

Europe tried renewable how it end up for them with slight change in climate. it is mistake to think that those sitting inside OPEC+ has less tech and does not know there customers. they keep watch on supply and demand and plan accordingly to keep market in such state that it does not damage already invested wealth in West too much.

Why are you even talking about air travel? The vast majority of global trade travels by sea, not by air.

And even if you look at the world's 10 largest airlines, they are in the West and China. Not in OPEC or Russia.

There is difference between theoretical capacity and practical capacity. Only Turkish airline with train crew that could deploy this scale of aviation for one country alone. look at collapse of aviation in Europa and elimination of cheap tickets. its OPEC+ airlines that has bigger A-380/ 777-300ER/777X fleet . OPEC+ is ensuring that all high end manufacturing product comes under there control.

I don't understand why you keep talking about OPEC+ as an entity.

Russia is now in a position where it is reliant on China as a customer for its exports, and as a supplier of technology and imported products.

OPEC is neither of these and the loss of OPEC trade wouldn't make any difference to Russia.

OPEC+ can purchase Russian energy exports and sell it for profit. similar OPEC+ can purchase manufacturing products and resell. OPEC+ is inside world stock and commodity markets. when wealth is at such scale than the manufacturing countries are relegated to second tiers in global order as they have to keep workers engaged so not to lose skills. Airbus and Boeing need to built and some one has to buy all the time when slots are opened. same thing happens with arms industry.

But the loss of China trade could be catastrophic for what is left of Russian industry. There literally would be no more component imports, smartphones, or any sort of cars for example.

Russian industry is mostly for internal use. They will export but that is mostly down the line.

But of course, it is in China's interests to have a friendly Russia and for Russia not to be aligned with the USA.

Anyway, I think I've said everything I need to say here

China need to have friendly relation with OPEC+ as younger generation of OPEC+ are western educated and they will rise the corporate ladder with western outlook. Just look how OPEC+ is treating Europa despite OPEC+ has decades of investment in Europe, People relationships and OPEC+ dependence on Europa engineering from power generation to aviation .than imagine how they will treat the rest of the world on which it has far less dependence. This is the power of real alliance unlike totaly worthless alliance that were mentioned.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

Its interesting that in the long term "Japan, South Korea, Canada, Australia, the UK, the EU" will likely comprise less than 47% US size. Its very surprising the relative decline of American allies (demographic/economic) is actually occurring faster than America's as a % of global GDP/population... Over 20 years ago, it was pretty much expected that EU would one day eclipse the US, since even with lower per-capita income it had a much larger population. Now it is clear EU will have less people than the US, and be much poorer per capita.

That's what happens when you go full neolib. Never go full neolib. Neolibs have started eating itself after devastating Africa and Latin America with austerity and debt traps.

They started drinking their own Kool aid. Never drink your own Kool aid.