I think Peking University should really reconsider who they hire, and not just hire people off the street because they white.
Chinese Economics Thread
- Thread starter Norfolk
- Start date
Hey, man, if there's a petition I can sign to get him fired, point me to it. I just don't think it's constructive to share his brain farts in this thread.
What if Pettis was just Peking's version of Gordon Chang? A comrade in service at the 战忽局。
These are the same financial/economic "experts" who said just a few years ago that China will never get over the middle income trap. Now the question is when, if not already.
Skywatcher
Captain
The Plaza Accords ultimately wouldn't have hurt (and might have actually helped at least a little) if the Japanese authorities would have been willing to allow all those zombie corporations to go bankrupt in the 1990s (China and South Korea did, after all)I do not think he is deluded, he could be just flat out wrong.
There are counter points to his points. Briefly, we can say this.
1. Re: convergence. The point here is that that there is no law for convergence in economics, otherwise India will be a superpower like yesterday. The point is that he does not know when that Chinese economic miracle will slow down or stop. It could be the next 5 years, or the next 100 years, he does not know. It is not about convergence, it is about momentum, and does the PRC have the ability in them to keep the momentum going. So far, so good.
2. The Plaza Accord triggered the collapse of the property bubble and stock market bubble in Japan that had to be a contributing factor to the deflation the Japan is still fighting. Maybe they have some inflation now, but that deflation over two decades was economically debilitating if you ask me. The Plaza Accord, which readjusted the values of the Yen and USD to the liking of the Americans, probably was the trigger for the debt deflation scenario that Japan experienced. Unless there is a debt deflation scenario awaiting China, then Pettis is barking up the wrong tree in his objections.
3. Re: tech ... it could be that China today is more advanced than Japan in tech back then. China got lucky too, because of this precise time in history, Chinese technological powers have risen, and it is riding a new change in economics and technology, in other words, this 4th industrial revolution. When Japan was rising, the world was set in its way in the Cold War. In China's rise, we saw the interent revolution now the incoming 4th industrial revolution. China is leading the way with the 5G which is suppose to enable this 4th industrial revolution. Seems that China has a real advantage today in its rise compared to Japan back in the day, because Chinese tech today will be riding up on a revolutionary period, whereas the era Japan rose was less dramatic. Since China is spearheading this 5G revolution, that surely should be another growth driver that was not available to Japan back then.
4. Lastly, he brings out how similar were the trajectory of Japan's miracle and China's rise, regarding investment driven growth, income disparity, debt levels, blah blah blah. All I have to say to that is that are not automatic outcomes. That is the difference between the CCP and this guy in the ivory tower. They are both driving car. CCP looks ahead to the future. Pettis looks at the rear view mirror to drive forward. That is an expression from Wall Street, not the ivory tower. Instinctively, we know who is more likely to be right and more successful in their prognostications.
But because of the way the LDP was (and still is, largely) structured, the corporate stakeholders had to be protected by being put on life support (or their political patrons would fall) and so hence the lost decade(s).
AssassinsMace
Lieutenant General
Any Westerner that tries to make comparisons between China and Japan is just a racist idiot. To them both are the same because they both have slanted eyes... China has a dynamic economy where someone can be poor and then become rich. Japan is classist society much like Europe. You die in same class you were born in. South Korea is more comparable to Japan because in both the few rich own like 80% of all businesses. Another argument they make is Japan is dependent on exports. Since Chinese also have slanted eyes, they must also be dependent too. Europe and Japan have more in common because they're both just moss covered rocks sticking out of the seas. They have little natural resources of their own hence why they both have histories of invading others to take what they don't have. It's no coincidence that the countries that invaded others and each other are now allies. If they don't ally with one another, they'll have nothing in this world.
Manufacturing output by country in 2018
Even in 2018, China was by far and away the largest manufacturing power. I am curious to see how this has changed.
By now, I'd imagine China is significantly larger than US + Japan + Germany.
I think in 2021 China is the equal of US + EU + Japan.
Does anyone have the data for 2021?
China share of global manufacturing
2018: 28.4%
2021: 30%
Sources below
weforum.org/agenda/2020/02/countries-manufacturing-trade-exports-economics/
english.www.gov.cn/statecouncil/ministries/202206/14/content_WS62a86fbcc6d02e533532c244.html#:~:text=BEIJING%20%E2%80%94%20China%20accounted%20for%2030,regulator%20showed%20on%20June%2014.
antiterror13
Brigadier
Being a vegetarian in NZ is much more expensive and you will lack of many vital vitamins and iron
"In April 2022 the Hangzhou Internet Court issued a decision involving joint and several liability of an NFT trading platform for copyright infringement committed through the sale of an NFT by an unauthorized user on said platform."
I can't say I'm surprised but I'm surprised. Apparently NFTs are big money now.