Chinese Economics Thread

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zhangjim

Junior Member
Registered Member
Bellum_Romanum said:
What's going on with the situation in Henan province regarding the people unable or being stopped by their local officials (cops) to withdraw their money alleged amount totalling ¥40 BILlion. And some or many based on posts on weibo (that's now been taken up by perpetual Reddit China human rights watchers) people's covid-19 status are given red code so that again they won't be able to withdraw their said money.

Since I don't know the entire details as to why this is happening, what are causing for people to withdraw their money (out of panic? Out of fear from the impending China collapse that has finally permeated in the minds of many in that said province) why are the chosen measures taken by the local and provincial government seem on the surface a little strict and to many unfair, and worst inhumane etc...

@yungho @zhangjim @KYli and to our brothers and sisters that are closer on the ground if possible please explain what the situation is based on your individual perspectives and if you agree to what the government are doing please explain your support, if not why not? And what are the proper measures that ought to have been made or must be made to ease the concerns of the people that are affected.
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I didn't see this in time.This is one of the sources of my anger a few days ago.
Bureaucrats seem to want to minimize the impact of things，but these people obviously underestimated the seriousness of the matter.The abuse of power by local governments to suppress social crisis is still an indelible stain.
The friends in the forum have explained these things very well. I won't share those more vicious speculations circulating in China for the time being.

This is a very terrible thing,the essence of the problem is the debt problem caused by real estate financial investment.
But it is disappointing that the government seems to be trying to save the hopeless real estate market.

KYli said:
At the same time, I am pretty sure someone in the higher ups is shielding the New Fortune Group from prosecution and arrest. Otherwise, that guy would have been arrested and prosecuted long time ago.
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The principal criminal involved in the case was briefly arrested, but was soon released, and then he quickly fled abroad.No one believes this is just a simple personal behavior,local governments have benefited a lot from real estate investment, but they are obviously unwilling to bear responsibility for this consequence. They can probably let riot police and armored vehicles solve the problem.

Welcome to see the unspeakable dark side under the bright appearance.
 
A

ansy1968

Brigadier
Registered Member
dengyeye said:
I just realized that due to the current recession in the US, China is perilously close to surpassing the US as the largest nominal economy (by PPP, China is well ahead of the US and continues increasing that lead).

2021
US - 23 trillion
China - 17.7 trillion

For 2022 it's looking like the US will experience slight contraction, whereas China will grow slower than usual. We should also take into account the RMB depreciating against the USD.

2022
US - 22 trillion
China - 19 trillion

For 2023 I expect China to grow faster than usual due to lockdowns in 2021. I assume US manages to dig itself out of recession.

2023
US - 24 trillion
China - 23 trillion

At this point China is only 1 trillion behind. I can easily see them surpassing US with another year of growth.

2024
US - 26 trillion
China - >26 trillion

Hence based on my extremely rough and assumptions estimates China could surpass US by as early as 2024. Earlier than that if RMB appreciates against the USD. It was always gonna happen anyway, the only question was when :cool: :cool: :cool:
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@dengyeye China speed with god blessing...lol we don't have to wait for 2028. Bro from what I'm seeing 2025 is the year we're all waiting for. 1)China EUVL 2) a peer Carrier Strike Group and finally surpassing the US in nominal GDP.
 
56860

56860

Senior Member
Registered Member
Overbom said:
Maybe. I am not sure though. This would necessitate China completely dropping lockdowns and zero covid. I know that many people say that zero covid will only last until the upcoming Party Congress but you never know if they still keep it afterwards.
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This is predicated on the assumption that Shanghai was the last lockdown of its sort. There will still be smaller lockdowns as part of zero covid.
 
Philister

Philister

Junior Member
Registered Member
Overbom said:
Maybe. I am not sure though. This would necessitate China completely dropping lockdowns and zero covid. I know that many people say that zero covid will only last until the upcoming Party Congress but you never know if they still keep it afterwards.
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0 COVID policy is a political correct thing now, I don’t think it’s going anywhere at least in 2022-23
 
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