Chinese Economics Thread

Bellum_Romanum

Bellum_Romanum

Brigadier
Registered Member
A snippet report about the recently released documentary titled "Immoral Colde: Stop Killer Robots" about U.S. military developing AI to sift through their vast array of high resolution videos that can't be processed fast enough by human personnel. The project was apparently called Project Maven and Google (don't be evil) engineers were tasked to work on this project, but one of this engineer grew a conscience and resigned.

I don't know or even think her moral opposition to this project is laudable or not but what I can say is that I hope China is already hard at work doing the same thing or has a similar program like this.

 
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Andy1974

Senior Member
Registered Member
gelgoog said:
A unified market will decimate smaller and mid size companies. It will cause a lot of job losses. But it will be necessary for more Chinese companies to be able to reach critical mass to reach global scale and increase investment in R&D. The government will have to compensate the losers somehow to keep social justice.
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SMEs are being supported in China, and Micro businesses and self employed people, they account for almost all jobs in China and is the focus of current reforms.
 
Lethe

Lethe

Captain
Sorry guys, the China story is officially over, a "senior China fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies" says so:

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What if the new era of great-power competition was over before it had even begun? Many of today’s fears about a multigeneration conflict with Beijing rest on linear extrapolations of yesteryear’s data, harkening back to a time when China appeared on track to supplant the United States as the world’s largest economy [....] China’s economy, long in decline, is now in freefall—thanks to Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s mismanagement. Case in point: This year, the U.S. economy is forecast to grow faster than China’s for the first time since 1976, with strong indications that China has entered a prolonged era of slow growth. More surprising is that Xi, in an attempt to stabilize China’s finances, has largely abandoned his ambitious plans to overhaul China’s growth model, choosing instead to double down on the very economic policies that got China into today’s economic bind in the first place [....] More important is that China’s fizzling economic miracle may soon undercut the CCP’s ability to wage a sustained struggle for geostrategic dominance. This raises a tantalizing question: What if, instead of being a competitor, China cannot actually afford to compete at all?
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MrCrazyBoyRavi

MrCrazyBoyRavi

Junior Member
Registered Member
So US inflation is about to touch 8%. Chinese 3T of foreign reserve will be losing approximately 250-300 billion $ due to inflation alone. Chinese US trade surplus was just around 350 B $ in 2021. Its like China is trading with losses in its book. Is this export oriented economy sustainable ? While people are celebrating record trade deficit with US. Chinese are getting computer numbers for trading real goods and hard labor.

I think for China to be no 1 economy in the world, it must significantly reduce its foreign currency holding first. Otherwise you are just a huge fat cow giving milk to your master and once you stop milking, you would be sent to the slaughter house.
 
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HereToSeePics

Junior Member
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
Registered Member
MrCrazyBoyRavi said:
So US inflation is about to touch 8%. Chinese 3T of foreign reserve will be losing approximately 250-300 billion $ due to inflation alone. Chinese US trade surplus was just around 350 B $ in 2021. Its like China is trading with losses in its book. Is this export oriented economy sustainable ? While people are celebrating record trade deficit with US. Chinese are getting computer numbers for trading real goods and hard labor.

I think for China to be no 1 economy in the world, it must significantly reduce its foreign currency holding first. Otherwise you are just a huge fat cow giving milk to your master and once you stop milking, you would be sent to the slaughter house.
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It's not quite as simple as China's USD holdings losing 8% with inflation. Since the US Federal Reserve has cranked up interest rates to fight inflation, the US Dollar index(how strong USD is compared to the other major world currencies) is at multiyear highs and actually gained 9% in past 52weeks:

1655175968138.png

So compared to other currencies, China's USD holdings has done better at maintaining buying power value than the other major world currencies(the other caveat is that since rates are rising, China's US Bond holdings are selling for less). Even gold has remained mostly flat during the same time period:

1655176250765.png

With more downward pressure than upward potential due to rising rates and a possible recession that will slow down commodities demand.

This is basically the quintessential challenge the world's facing when trying to "dump" the USD - it's still pretty powerful at a relative level and there are few alternatives that the world can instantly swap over to. Though I'd probably argue that with USD at its current highs, now's a good time to "sell high" in limited amounts.
 
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