China by its own can meet 65.8% of all food demands as of 2021.
On April 27, attendees to the China Macroeconomy Forum discussed food security in China now and future.
In 2000, China produced 93.6% of all food consumed by its people that year. In 2020, the self-sufficiency rate dropped to 65.8%. China can produce enough rice, corn, wheat, and most meat. But it has to import two thirds of vegetable oil and more than 80% of soybeans to meet the demands. It also needs to buy more than 80% of protein cattle feed abroad.
中国对水稻、玉米、小麦三大主粮和主要肉类的保障水平较高，但食用植物油、大豆的自给率比较低，分别为1/3和不到17%。在农业供给体系中，蛋白饲料原料供给自给率不到20%，短板最为突出。2000年，中国的食物自给率为93.6%，2020年降至65.8%。
In 2021, China produced 683 million tonnes of crops, imported 165 million tonnes. Rice import increased by 68.7%, wheat by 16.6%, great millet by 95.6%, barley by 54.5%, corn by 152.2%. Beef and mutton imports also increased.
All rice, corn, wheat, potatos/yams/etc. and different kinds of beans combined, China consumed 810 million tonnes of crops annually. The consumption is expected to peak at 920 to 940 million tonnes between 2025 and 2030. It will stablize at 890 million tonnes starting in 2050.
2021年中国粮食产量6.83亿吨，进口粮食1.65亿吨。去年，进口稻谷及大米同比增长68.7%，进口小麦增长16.6%，进口高粱增长95.6%，进口大麦增长54.5%，进口玉米增长152.2%，牛肉与羊肉的进口也均有所增长。从需求端看，程国强介绍，如果以三大主粮与薯类、豆类合并计算，目前中国粮食（年）消费8.1亿吨，预计到“十四五”末为9亿吨，粮食需求峰值有可能在2025年-2030年到来，总量为9.2亿吨至9.4亿吨，此后逐步回落，2050年将保持在8.9亿吨。
China currently does not have problem in food security according to these general accepted standards:
a) more than 95% of crops are self sufficient;
b) more than 400 kg of food availability per capita; and
c) food reserves are more than 18% of consumption in current year.
For years China has been producing about 98% of rice and wheat consumed annually. Even though China needs to import more corn in terms of percentage, China can still meet 96% of the demands on all the primary crops annually. Food availability to each Chinese is 480 kg in 2021, including 63 kg of meat and 46 kg of aquatic products. All above the world average. Finally, China's food reserves are more than 18% of the current annual consumption.
国际上关于粮食安全的标准有三条线，分别是谷物自给率达到95%以上、人均粮食占有量400公斤以上、粮食储备达到本年度消费的18%以上。从这三个指标看，中国没问题。中国的谷物尤其是小麦和水稻的自给率常年达到98%。将玉米计算在内，中国的谷物自给率在2021年也达到96%，逼近全球谷物安全线上下浮动。此外，去年，中国人均占有粮食484公斤、人均占有肉类63公斤、人均占有水产品46公斤，都超过世界人均水平。而且，中国的粮食储备达到了本年度消费量的18%。
For the last two years, crops production has been stable. In 2021, crops production increased by 2% or 13.3 million tonnes. Meat production increased by 10 million tonnes to 88.87 million tonnes in total. Food reserves are at historic high in 2021. More than 70% of food reserves are rice and wheat. Wheat reserves have been increasing and equal to 1.5 times of annual consumption of wheat.
这两年，中国的粮食生产非常平稳。2021年中国粮食产量增长了2%，也即267亿斤；肉类增加了1000万吨以上，提高至8887万吨，说明中国农业生产是健康可持续的。去年11月，国家粮食和物资储备局粮食储备司司长秦玉云介绍称，中国粮食库存处于历史高位，特别是小麦和稻谷两大口粮品种占总库存比例超过70%。小麦库存持续增加，可满足一年半消费需求。
Between 2025 and 2030, food consumption, including meat, dairy, vegetable oil, etc, will peak. It will require the equivalent of 4.2 to 4.3 billion mu (about 2.87 million sqkm) of farm land to produce all those food. Without considering progress in science and technologies, self sufficiency of food will drop from 65.8% now to 59% then. Self sufficiency of agriculture resources (i.e. farm land) will drop from 64.3% now to 57.4% then.
2025年至2030年，中国达到粮食需求峰值，若要保障好口粮和肉蛋奶植物油等食物消费需求，大致需要42亿亩至43亿亩的种植面积，到那时，中国食物自给率将从目前的65.8%，下降至59%，农业资源自给率将从目前的64.3%，下降至57.4%（不考虑科技进步）
China is lagging behind in productivity of soybean and corn. The average soy bean production is between 130 and 140 kg per unit of plantation area, corn production is 420kg. In comparison, the US farmers can produce 240kg soy beans and 770kg corns. China must invest in biotechnology to improve corn and soy bean productivity. R&D in biotech must not be hijacked by the public opinions [I think it means the anti-GMO sentiments].
中国目前的科技短板主要在进口量较大的大豆和玉米上。全国大豆单产平均为130公斤-140公斤左右，而美国的大豆单产平均为240公斤。中国的玉米单产420公斤，相当于美国单产770公斤的55%-60%。大豆和玉米的单产提升，一定要在生物技术上下大力气、做大文章，绝对不能被舆论左右，一定要瞄准主攻方向，不能急于求成，但是也绝对不能放缓步伐。
China will need to import food equivalent to crops produced by 1.3 to 1.5 billion mu (about 1 million sqkm) of farm land. To secure such import, China will need to set up monitoring system on global investment, trade and market information in agriculture, establish enterprises in global food and agriculture business, take part in the global food security management. China should use BRI as a platform to have more cooperations on agriculture with other participants.
中国今后利用国外的13亿亩到15亿亩农业资源必不可少，要建立健全全球农业贸易投资与市场监测信息体系，加快培育全球性农业食品企业，深度参与全球农业与粮食安全治理，充分发挥“一带一路”拓展农业国际合作、促进投资贸易建设的平台作用，构建一个安全、持续、稳定的全球农业食品供应网络。
