Chinese Economics Thread

Coalescence

Senior Member
Registered Member
Yes but I do think China also needs to adjust their policy. anecdotally I have seen more electronics made in Vietnam, Thailand and Mexico now than before. China needs to not get overly confident and still keep economics in mind with COVID.
I wonder how much of those electronics were parts made in China but just assembled in another country in order to get labelled differently and avoid sanctions/tariffs. I recall there's an article written that after the US slapped solar panel import tariffs on China, some of the Chinese solar industries simply setup an assembly factory in another Asian country to circumvent it.
 

MortyandRick

Senior Member
Registered Member
I wonder how much of those electronics were parts made in China but just assembled in their respective country in order to get labelled differently and avoid sanctions/tariffs. I recall an article that after the US slapped solar panel import tariffs on China, some of the Chinese solar industries simply setup an assembly factory in another Asian country to circumvent it.
Very good point. I thought of that too but assembly is still jobs that could be in china. while increasingly having higher tech products and salary would make assembly jobs less desirable, in my mind its still jobs For those lower skilled Chinese workers.
 

Overbom

Brigadier
Registered Member
But that means the Americans get to buy more Chinese goods too, because the RMB devalued, and the Americans were also buying more German and Japanese goods.
The trade numbers keep going up for China. The tech profits keep going up, and Chinese tech keeps on expanding.
As you have eloquently stated, this is big short-term gain for America. It gets physical goods, made with hardworking Chinese labour, and in return, it gives China some toilet paper.

We all know that the US will never honour its commitments to the dollars that China has gained from trading with it (+ the rest of the world).
 

KenC

Junior Member
Registered Member
Yes but I do think China also needs to adjust their policy. anecdotally I have seen more electronics made in Vietnam, Thailand and Mexico now than before. China needs to not get overly confident and still keep economics in mind with COVID.
I don't know about whether China should change just because an EU official complaint or because of anecdotal evidence from one person. The thing is the Chinese officials are highly competent and some of the best in the world based on the track record, unlike most countries, including those from EU.

Anyway, what China is doing nowadays beside the dual circulation strategy is to build and modernize infrastructure all over the country in all round way. Here's a discussion about this infrastructure building:


China may not have all the low cost labor to do manual assembly and complete with other low cost countries given that rural workers are being encouraged to return and start their own businesses.

 

Strangelove

Colonel
Registered Member
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A total of 23 domestic provinces in China saw above-average GDP growth in the first quarter, with Northwest China’s Xinjiang recording the fastest growth, while South China’s Guangdong Province reporting the largest economic output.

Experts said the influence of the recent coronavirus outbreaks will manifest to a greater extent in the second quarter, but the concentrated rollout of government stimulus policies might also help China’s economy bottom out quickly and start to rebound in the third quarter.

According to economic data released by China’s provinces and municipalities in recent days, Guangdong reported 2.85 trillion yuan in terms of GDP aggregate in the first quarter, the largest scale among all regions. It was followed by East China’s Jiangsu Province and Shandong Province.

Hu Qimu, chief researcher at the Sinosteel Economic Research Institute, told the Global Times on Monday that the advantages of those provinces in population, manufacturing scale and innovative capabilities are strong even with certain external challenges, such as the coronavirus outbreaks in certain regions.

However, some of those provinces have seen GDP growth slow down in the first quarter, indicating the influence of COVID is starting to show, though not to a great extent, Hu told the Global Times.

Shandong’s GDP grew 5.2 percent in the first quarter, down from 18 percent of growth rate recorded in the first quarter of 2021.

In terms of GDP growth, Xinjiang reported the fastest growth of 7.0 percent, while Northeast China’s Jilin Province had the slowest growth of -7.9 percent in the first three months.

In total, 23 provinces and municipalities reported growth higher than the average first-quarter GDP growth of 4.8 percent, including East China’s Zhejiang, Fujian and Central China’s Hubei.

According to Hu, with the outbreaks of COVID cases in multiple regions recently, economic activity will continue to worsen, and the negative impact of Omicron on domestic economy will manifest more evidently in the second quarter.

“However, as China rolled out a cluster of policies to stabilize economic growth recently, and with the improvement of credit environment and logistics system, it’s possible that China’s economy might bottom out in the second quarter and start to rebound in the third one, given that China can explore a way to strike a balance between COVID management and economic growth,” he noted.

In the first quarter, Shanghai recorded 3.1 percent GDP growth. The growth will mostly likely slide further in the second quarter, Hu said, though he did not give an accurate forecast.

The city is still in the middle of a fierce battle against Omicron since March. South China’s Shenzhen also experienced a wave of severe coronavirus outbreaks earlier in February, but managed to put it under control with scientific and decisive measures by adhering to the country’s dynamic zero-COVID strategy.
 

AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General
Everyone cook this book in one way or another. Interesting interview from Joerg Wuttke the president of the EU Chamber of Commerce in China

On Ukraine sanction

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The West is the prisoner of their own narrative. I've said before how the West doesn't recognize their own racism as a national security threat. It made them think China wouldn't be where it's at today. All you see is Americans trying to blame one another for who open the doors to China. What's the cage they're trapped in now? They're perfect and can do no wrong. They need no one while everyone else needs them. Now they're in panic because they don't know how to deal with China. The West under Trump wanted to decouple from China. Then the pandemic made them panic to be self-sufficient where they weren't dependent on anyone else. Economics is the canary in the coal mine. All their little acts are why inflation is at its worst since WWII. Because they can't admit they were wrong, now they're spinning it's China decoupling from the world. They wanted decoupling yet they're panicking over China's zero-COVID policy is going to negatively affect the world economy. The West will never figure out their problems because they don't recognize the truth hence why they get angry and are in panic over something as simple as countries not calling Putin's war an "invasion". That's their prison.
 

visitor123

New Member
Registered Member
What should China do?

Not sure.

The important thing is the play along I feel.


This war in Europe, does not put China in a weaker position, unlike others.

The RMB went down, but not by very much. Perhaps that is just short term relief, to get things in order, get to be more competitive, as we know 5G should be an innovative and efficiency boom for the Chinese economy. Eventually the RMB will probably rise.

In short, the best policy would appear to be for China to keep on playing, but with a view for the long term.

Look at that situation. Americans got a lot of short term gain. Chinese still playing for the long term.

The currency game, may not last. But the Americans got the advantage absolutely in the short term. In the long term, China is still there, and still getting stronger.

Generally, the short term play, will tend to lose out to the long term play. Look at what happened to President Trump's trade war and tech war. After the initial flurry of hostility, the picture becomes clearer.

The trade numbers keep going up for China. The tech profits keep going up, and Chinese tech keeps on expanding.

Huawei reported lower profits. They also reported they spent more money on R&D. Usually, the profits is paid out in dividends or re-invested as R&D. The Western media boast that Huawei profit is down (when it was invested into R&D, something that they wish not to talk about). :rolleyes:

So that seems to be where we are at. The Americans made a short term play. Things are too much influx, it could all change still.

In response to that, the China stick to and make more long term plays to counter that. Seems that the long term moves, solidify the present and hold great promise for the future.

See, the Chinese are smart and devious bastards too.

:oops:
dude. We have the supply chain in the ball. No matter how much more money they pay, that container isn't leaving the port.

I think you and many "economists" has forgotten that the economy is a real physical thing and there are real physical constraint that cannot be solved no matter what imaginary tools they employ: interest rate, tariff, subsidizes etc.
It's like asking how much money is enough to train a duck to drive a car. Only retards and economists argue with each other on that.
 

horse

Colonel
Registered Member
dude. We have the supply chain in the ball. No matter how much more money they pay, that container isn't leaving the port.

I think you and many "economists" has forgotten that the economy is a real physical thing and there are real physical constraint that cannot be solved no matter what imaginary tools they employ: interest rate, tariff, subsidizes etc.
It's like asking how much money is enough to train a duck to drive a car. Only retards and economists argue with each other on that.

Sure, we can say that.

What I like to point out, is that this fight is real too.

For example, the Trump tariffs kicked off the tariff war, where America raised tariffs against Chinese goods, and China raised tariffs against American goods.

From what I remember, a lot of those tariffs China implemented, was to try to spur import substitution. Let domestic Chinese industry build up, and replace those American imported parts.

What were the Americans trying to do with their tariffs? When we see now that America continues to buy more and more from China? Who knows.

China raised tariffs to promote import substitution. In this fight, China helps itself, right.

That is why I said, that China should play along.

I did not say China should try to cut off its economic relationship with America, like how Europe and Russia are doing.

China wants to continue trading with the Americans, and do the import substitution at the same time. The Chinese would think, "They started it!"

Whatever the Americans do next, pretty sure the Chinese will counter it will something for their own advantage. This fight is real.

Not just in the realm of economics, but almost everything.

There was this AUSUK submarine deal, now there is this possible Chinese military base on the Solomon Islands, if anyone can find that place on a map. Heh!

:D
 

SanWenYu

Captain
Registered Member
From what I remember, a lot of those tariffs China implemented, was to try to spur import substitution. Let domestic Chinese industry build up, and replace those American imported parts.

What were the Americans trying to do with their tariffs? When we see that America continues to buy more and more from China? Who knows
I believe Trump was thinking "import substitution", too. All traffis serve this same purpose. But Trump and his advisor Ron Varo, aka Navarro, forgot that making bikes, toys, smartphones and dishwashers in the US is no longer profitable for the American enterpreneurs.

Meanwhile, for China, import substitution often means upgrade and breakthrough in science and technologies. And in business it means to move upwards on the value chain. It is therefore desirable not only by CPC but also by the Chinese enterpreneurs.
 

Franklin

Captain
Everyone cook this book in one way or another. Interesting interview from Joerg Wuttke the president of the EU Chamber of Commerce in China

On Ukraine sanction

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This is simply projection. Its the West that is imprisoned by its own narritive. They keep saying that there will be major problems in the Chinese economy year after year. But its the Western economies that has been banging from crisis to crisis over the past decades.

Socio economic conditions in the West is now at its lowest in the past 50 years. You can't say that about China.
 
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