Chinese Economics Thread

Coalescence

Senior Member
Registered Member
Nothing will cool down until zero covid policy is over. You at most will have one or two months of relative peace then a new wave of lockdowns. Remember this is official PMI for big enterprises, which are less affected by lockdowns. Cant wait for caixin PMI for small and medium enterprises.
It was working fine for some of the cities that was able to track, isolate and cut the transmission chain as fast as possible, the situation got bad in Shanghai was due to negligence. The alternative of living with covid is not possible with this current state, if pursued they'll face massive societal disruption and healthcare crisis, for now they'll need to vaccinate all the elderly, improve monitoring and isolation, and improve their response.
 

Overbom

Brigadier
Registered Member
Remember this is official PMI for big enterprises, which are less affected by lockdowns. Cant wait for caixin PMI for small and medium enterprises.
Caixin PMI (mostly for SMEs) is also out and is indeed worse than the official PMI data (mostly focused on bigger enterprises)

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The official Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), a key gauge of manufacturing activity, clocked 47.4 in April
On Saturday, Chinese media group Caixin released its own manufacturing purchasing managers' index, showing a second straight month of deterioration, with the figure dropping from 48.1 to 46.0.
Official Manufacturing PMI: 47.4
Caixin Manufacturing PMI: 46.0

This also aligns with what I a have been reading this month, SMEs have taken a bigger hit from the lockdowns than bigger enterprises
 

visitor123

New Member
Registered Member
Good.
Drive up inflation everywhere even more. Make yuan cheaper so they have no choice to to buy from China and add to the backlog.

Before you tell me that you will move out of China? lol
Move what? From where? To where? How?
You are telling that they want to increase their backlog from 12 months to 5 years? Good luck. We got them by the ball. And those "cheap" country they think of moving to: lol, we will drive up inflation to fuck with them too. Amid the rising fuel prices, more expensive dollars all of them are gonna get fucked.
 

Topazchen

Junior Member
Registered Member
Everyone cook this book in one way or another. Interesting interview from Joerg Wuttke the president of the EU Chamber of Commerce in China

On Ukraine sanction

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I totally get the frustration of those foreign business people because I have personally experienced the rigid travel policy.
Some two Chinese engineers who were installing machines at a plant can't go back and it's costing us 100 usd a day to maintain them.

Of course we'd have sourced elsewhere if we had known this beforehand.
 

zgx09t

Junior Member
Registered Member
It's absolutely normal and common sense to expect and see such numbers from time to time, given the depth and breath of this ongoing pandemics' fully and truly global scope. FFS, it's not called once in a century event for no reasons but just for shits and giggles for the weekend. Economy can be back filled or stabilized through different means, while those millions died can't be back filled or revived. That's the mark of a good leadership making tough decisions painful for short terms and gainful for long term. Mind you China already have many projects in the hopper and many irons already in fire to back fill, as we all know whole country is not in lock down and locked down areas are on the mend. Not to mention PBoC hasn't even bought and hold assets like other OECD central banks yet. Just check the numbers of others in the region, as an advice to some who are gloating here, like false flaggers who can barely contain their schadenfreude.
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
China oil import paid with yuan. start to arrive in China
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China Calls Out U.S. Dollar Dominance As It Buys Russian Coal With Yuan​


Editor OilPrice.com
Sun, May 1, 2022, 10:00 AM


The first shipments of Russian coal and crude oil, paid for in yuan, will arrive in China in April and May, respectively. Chinese state media used the opportunity to denigrate the United States, claiming that the international status of the U.S. dollar is “at risk.” However, financial expert Albert Song believes that it will not affect the U.S. dollar’s status as the leading global reserve currency.

Fenwei Energy Information Service Co., China’s leading information and service provider to the coal and coke industries, revealed that several Chinese companies purchased Russian coal in Chinese currency in March, and the first shipment would be made in April. This is also the first shipment of Russian commodities paid in yuan to arrive in China after Russia was sanctioned by Western countries.

Fenwei did not specify on which date the shipment was expected to arrive.
In addition to coal, Chinese buyers also used yuan to purchase Russian crude oil. The first ESPO (Eastern Siberia Pacific Ocean) crude oil will be delivered in May, according to a commentary published in early April on Cngold.org, a Chinese online media outlet about investing.
 

horse

Colonel
Registered Member
China oil import paid with yuan. start to arrive in China
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China Calls Out U.S. Dollar Dominance As It Buys Russian Coal With Yuan​


Editor OilPrice.com
Sun, May 1, 2022, 10:00 AM


The first shipments of Russian coal and crude oil, paid for in yuan, will arrive in China in April and May, respectively. Chinese state media used the opportunity to denigrate the United States, claiming that the international status of the U.S. dollar is “at risk.” However, financial expert Albert Song believes that it will not affect the U.S. dollar’s status as the leading global reserve currency.

Fenwei Energy Information Service Co., China’s leading information and service provider to the coal and coke industries, revealed that several Chinese companies purchased Russian coal in Chinese currency in March, and the first shipment would be made in April. This is also the first shipment of Russian commodities paid in yuan to arrive in China after Russia was sanctioned by Western countries.

Fenwei did not specify on which date the shipment was expected to arrive.
In addition to coal, Chinese buyers also used yuan to purchase Russian crude oil. The first ESPO (Eastern Siberia Pacific Ocean) crude oil will be delivered in May, according to a commentary published in early April on Cngold.org, a Chinese online media outlet about investing.

The Americans are smart.

The CIA basically. The Americans are smart because they are devious. That is the function of the deep state IMHO, at least that is what my tin foil hat says.

---------------- ---------------- ----------------

Fact: the Japanese Yen has collapsed.

Fact: the Euro is devaluing.

This means the US dollar is going up.

But here is the wrinkle, of the tin foil hat. Those two, Japan and Germany, their most important trading partner is China. Since their currencies are collapsing, then they should be able to out-compete China somewhat due to currency devaluation.

Now consider what happens when the currency devalues, the stuff that country produces becomes cheaper. All of the sudden, the US dollar, can buy more German goods and Japanese goods for Americans, who are running the printing presses.

This war in Europe, shocked those spineless European and Japanese politicians into caving in for policies that are detrimental to themselves, which in turn weaken their own currencies which means the USD goes up.


Here is where China comes in. The RMB did not budge initially. Then when the Euro and Yen started their devaluation, finally China did the same, just a little bit. They had enough, and will devalue a little so that the Germans and Japanese cannot take away more business with their devaluations due to the war in Europe.

But that means the Americans get to buy more Chinese goods too, because the RMB devalued, and the Americans were also buying more German and Japanese goods.

Sure looks like the Americans manipulated a stronger dollar according to my tin foil hat, in order to buy more goods for themselves and keep a lid on inflation too.

If anyone should complain, the Americans would say just invest in America, the stock market is going up.

Isn't that smart and devious?

Bastards! But smart bastards.

:D
 

horse

Colonel
Registered Member
What should China do?

Not sure.

The important thing is the play along I feel.


This war in Europe, does not put China in a weaker position, unlike others.

The RMB went down, but not by very much. Perhaps that is just short term relief, to get things in order, get to be more competitive, as we know 5G should be an innovative and efficiency boom for the Chinese economy. Eventually the RMB will probably rise.

In short, the best policy would appear to be for China to keep on playing, but with a view for the long term.

Look at that situation. Americans got a lot of short term gain. Chinese still playing for the long term.

The currency game, may not last. But the Americans got the advantage absolutely in the short term. In the long term, China is still there, and still getting stronger.

Generally, the short term play, will tend to lose out to the long term play. Look at what happened to President Trump's trade war and tech war. After the initial flurry of hostility, the picture becomes clearer.

The trade numbers keep going up for China. The tech profits keep going up, and Chinese tech keeps on expanding.

Huawei reported lower profits. They also reported they spent more money on R&D. Usually, the profits is paid out in dividends or re-invested as R&D. The Western media boast that Huawei profit is down (when it was invested into R&D, something that they wish not to talk about). :rolleyes:

So that seems to be where we are at. The Americans made a short term play. Things are too much influx, it could all change still.

In response to that, the China stick to and make more long term plays to counter that. Seems that the long term moves, solidify the present and hold great promise for the future.

See, the Chinese are smart and devious bastards too.

:oops:
 

Kalec

Junior Member
Registered Member
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I am now hearing from more and more foreign companies that they are trying to move their supply chains to other countries. China is losing its credibility as the best sourcing location in the world.
"Moving supply chains to other countries" means massive build up of unprofitable ports, highways, trains in QT period. Lmao, good luck with that.

It took China 40 years to build such infrastructure , and this dude is empty-threatening to build another one coz "losing credibility."
Last time I check, infrastructure are made of concrete and steel, not green paper or "credibility."
 

MortyandRick

Senior Member
Registered Member
"Moving supply chains to other countries" means massive build up of unprofitable ports, highways, trains in QT period. Lmao, good luck with that.

It took China 40 years to build such infrastructure , and this dude is empty-threatening to build another one coz "losing credibility."
Last time I check, infrastructure are made of concrete and steel, not green paper or "credibility."
Yes but I do think China also needs to adjust their policy. anecdotally I have seen more electronics made in Vietnam, Thailand and Mexico now than before. China needs to not get overly confident and still keep economics in mind with COVID.
 
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