Chinese Economics Thread

9dashline

Captain
Registered Member
Look like China is expected the worst by insulating itself from geopolitical tsunami with energy independent. Environmental concern would be put in back burner for now. 300 million tons would be enough to replace all imports. 620 million stockpile is more like preparing for worst case scenario.
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The National Development and Reform Commission, the nation’s top economic planner, told officials from major mining regions at a meeting late last week that it wants to boost domestic production capacity by about 300 million tons, according to people familiar with the matter. It also plans to build a 620 million-ton stockpile of the fuel split between government, miners and users.
While climate change is not a hoax, the existential threat is diminishing EROEI and hostile US Western hegemony. China must go ALL IN on Coal NOW
 

ansy1968

Brigadier
Registered Member
Look like China is expected the worst by insulating itself from geopolitical tsunami with energy independent. Environmental concern would be put in back burner for now. 300 million tons would be enough to replace all imports. 620 million stockpile is more like preparing for worst case scenario.
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The National Development and Reform Commission, the nation’s top economic planner, told officials from major mining regions at a meeting late last week that it wants to boost domestic production capacity by about 300 million tons, according to people familiar with the matter. It also plans to build a 620 million-ton stockpile of the fuel split between government, miners and users.
@KYli and with it Food Security as well, China is preparing as the current Russia Ukraine conflict may spread to Asia as the US grapple for a solution on multiple front and unable to.
 

SanWenYu

Captain
Registered Member
China will run out of coal in 40 years and that's assuming their energy consumption does not increase for the next 40 years. China will have to drop the dollar peg and repeg to commodities soon.
You were probably using this info:
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But its data appear to be off.

According to this publication by China Geological Survey (中国地质调查局):
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As of 2013, China has minable coal reserves (可采储量) are 244 billion tonnes. Note this 基础储量 or 可采储量 is the total reserves that can be mined with the technologies available for the time being. As technologies improve, more coal reserves can be mined.

Screen Shot 2022-03-13 at 22.07.13.png

Meanwhile, China produce 4 billion tonnes of coal in 2021, according to China National Stats (cited by National Mine Safety Admin):
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国家统计局1月17日发布的数据显示,2021年,我国生产原煤40.7亿吨,比上年增长4.7%,比2019年增长5.6%,两年平均增长2.8%;进口煤炭3.2亿吨,比上年增长6.6%。

Using these data, China's minable coal reserves can last 60 years at the current annual production.
 

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
China is also engaged in a vast nuclear expansion. Add natural gas to this mix together with renewables and the requirement for coal should eventually decrease.

From what I understand China's issue is lack of metallurgical coal for steel production. But industry in Japan and Europe is planned to switch to use of hydrogen gas for steel production instead of coal. If China also goes in this direction requirement for high grade anthracite coal will decrease.
 

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
Gas pipelines take a long time to build. You need to build the gas transportation infrastructure to bring the gas from Russia to China. You also need to make huge changes in China to be able to use gas. You need to change boilers and cooking appliances from coal to gas, etc.
Huge effort. Even once you build the pipes it takes a couple years to scale gas resource.

Power of Siberia still only delivers 10bcm after over a year in operation.
 

ThomX

New Member
Registered Member
Energy security is China's top priority, while making it clean is another...
I believe converting coals into gas or liquid hydrocarbon by using renwable energy is a necessary step for both countering climate change and energy independence.
And... Why not import more oil from Saudi?
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That boost Northeastern China's economy as well.
 

Godzilla

Junior Member
Registered Member
Energy security is China's top priority, while making it clean is another...
I believe converting coals into gas or liquid hydrocarbon by using renwable energy is a necessary step for both countering climate change and energy independence.
And... Why not import more oil from Saudi?
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

That boost Northeastern China's economy as well.
Coal chemicals needs water, LOTS of water... The places that have lots of coal chemical plants, namely, Ningxia, Gansu, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang, don't have alot of water. It only make sense from an energy security perspective, not climate change.
Don't get me wrong, coal is important to the mix, but it aint a long term solution. Wacking more and more renewables and HVDC transmission is the way to go, especially at the scale China is making it, importing from China will be the only option commercially unless other government wants to drop dimes in as subsidies to prop up uncompetitive companies.
 
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